Estimating Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability: A New Approach

The detection of solar irradiance variations (both bolometric and at various wavelengths) by satellite-based experiments during the last one-and-a-half decades stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data for those time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper we present estimates of the long-term irradiance changes developed with Fourier and wavelet transforms. The month-to-month irradiance variations, after removing the solar cycle related long-term changes, are studied with the cross-correlation technique. Results of the analysis reveal a significant phase shift at 3 months between the full-disk magnetic field strength and total solar and UV irradiance, with irradiance leading the magnetic field variability. In addition to this time delay between the changes in solar irradiance and the magnetic field, a 10-month phase shift has been found between the UV flux at 280 nm and total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot darkening. The existence of these phase shifts suggests the possibility of a coupling between the physical processes taking place below, in, and above the photosphere.     

The November 2002 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise,Réunion: tracking the pre-eruptive thermal evolution of magma using melt inclusions

The November 2002 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise in the Indian Ocean was typical of the activity of the volcano from 1999 to 2006 in terms of duration and volume of magma ejected. The first magma erupted was a basaltic liquid with a small proportion of olivine phenocrysts (Fo₈₁) that contain small numbers of melt inclusions. In subsequent flows, olivine crystals were more abundant and richer in Mg (Fo_83–84). These crystals contain numerous melt and fluid inclusions, healed fractures, and dislocation features such as kink bands. The major element composition of melt inclusions in this later olivine (Fo_83–84) is out of equilibrium with that of its host as a result of extensive post-entrapment crystallization and Fe²⁺ loss by diffusion during cooling. Melt inclusions in Fo₈₁ olivine are also chemically out of equilibrium with their hosts but to a lesser degree. Using olivine–melt geothermometry, we determined that melt inclusions in Fo₈₁ olivine were trapped at lower temperature (1,182 ± 1°C) than inclusions in Fo_83–84 olivine (1,199–1,227°C). This methodology was also used to estimate eruption temperatures. The November 2002 melt inclusion compositions suggest that they were at temperatures between 1,070°C and 1,133°C immediately before eruption and quenching. This relatively wide temperature range may reflect the fact that most of the melt inclusions were from olivine in lava samples and therefore likely underwent minor but variable amounts of post-eruptive crystallization and Fe²⁺ loss by diffusion due to their relatively slow cooling on the surface. In contrast, melt inclusions in tephra samples from past major eruptions yielded a narrower range of higher eruption temperatures (1,163–1,181°C). The melt inclusion data presented here and in earlier publications are consistent with a model of magma recharge from depth during major eruptions, followed by storage, cooling, and crystallization at shallow levels prior to expulsion during events similar in magnitude to the relatively small November 2002 eruption.     

Study of the distribution of daily fluctuations in observed solar irradiances and other full-disk indices of solar activity

Analyses based on irradiance observations from space within the last one and a half decades have discovered variations in the entire solar spectrum and at UV wavelengths on time scales of minutes to decades. In this paper we analyze the distribution of the measuring uncertainties and daily fluctuations in total solar irradiance measured by the Nimbus-7/ERB and SMM/ACRIM I radiometers as a function of solar cycle. Changes in solar total irradiance and its surrogates shorter than the solar rotation have also been considered as noise and have been removed from the data. Our results show that the noise (both instrumental and solar noise) changes as a function of the solar cycle, being higher during high solar activity conditions. The analysis of the scatter plot diagrams between the data and their standard deviation, the so-called dispersion diagrams, provides a useful tool to estimate and predict the time of solar maximum and minimum activity conditions.Deceased on October 13, 1994.     

Sunspot numbers uncertainties and parametric representations of solar activity variations

Investigating the real origins of error bars prior to data processing can be highly rewarding. We have already shown it for solar radius determinations where uncertainties could be deduced from the dispersion of elementary measurements. In the present work, we extend our analysis to the historical monthly sunspot numbers where the uncertainty problem arises quite differently. This leads to a substantial revision of our initial method. Like in the radius case, we shall stress the interest of analysing procedures which have the capability of taking care of unequal error bars, such as the wavelet transform.