6: Classification of VMS deposits: Lessons from the South Uralides

VMS deposits of the South Urals developed within the evolving Urals palaeo-ocean between Silurian and Late Devonian times. Arc-continent collision between Baltica and the Magnitogorsk Zone (arc) in the south-western Urals effectively terminated submarine volcanism in the Magnitogorsk Zone with which the bulk of the VMS deposits are associated. The majority of the Urals VMS deposits formed within volcanic-dominated sequences in deep seawater settings. Preservation of macro and micro vent fauna in the sulphide bodies is both testament to the seafloor setting for much of the sulphides but also the exceptional degree of preservation and lack of metamorphic overprint of the deposits and host rocks. The deposits in the Urals have previously been classified in terms of tectonic setting, host rock associations and metal ratios in line with recent tectono-stratigraphic classifications. In addition to these broad classes, it is clear that in a number of the Urals settings, an evolution of the host volcanic stratigraphy is accompanied by an associated change in the metal ratios of the VMS deposits, a situation previously discussed, for example, in the Noranda district of Canada.Two key structural settings are implicated in the South Urals. The first is seen in a preserved marginal allochthon west of the Main Urals Fault where early arc tholeiites host Cu–Zn mineralization in deposits including Yaman Kasy, which is host to the oldest macro vent fauna assembly known to science. The second tectonic setting for the South Urals VMS is the Magnitogorsk arc where study has highlighted the presence of a preserved early forearc assemblage, arc tholeiite to calc-alkaline sequences and rifted arc bimodal tholeiite sequences. The boninitc rocks of the forearc host Cu–(Zn) and Cu–Co VMS deposits, the latter hosted in fragments within the Main Urals Fault Zone (MUFZ) which marks the line of arc-continent collision in Late Devonian times. The arc tholeiites host Cu–Zn deposits with an evolution to more calc-alkaline felsic volcanic sequences matched with a change to Zn–Pb–Cu polymetallic deposits, often gold-rich. Large rifts in the arc sequence are filled by thick bimodal tholeiite sequences, themselves often showing an evolution to a more calc-alkaline nature. These thick bimodal sequences are host to the largest of the Cu–Zn VMS deposits.The exceptional degree of preservation in the Urals has permitted the identification of early seafloor clastic and hydrolytic modification (here termed halmyrolysis sensu lato) to the sulphide assemblages prior to diagenesis and this results in large-scale modification to the primary VMS body, resulting in distinctive morphological and mineralogical sub-types of sulphide body superimposed upon the tectonic association classification.It is proposed that a better classification of seafloor VMS systems is thus achievable using a three stage classification based on (a) tectonic (hence bulk volcanic chemistry) association, (b) local volcanic chemical evolution within a single edifice and (c) seafloor reworking and halmyrolysis.     

Monte Carlo modeling of neutral gas and dust in the coma of Comet 1P/Halley

The neutral gas environment of a comet is largely influenced by dissociation of parent molecules created at the surface of the comet and collisions of all the involved species. We compare the results from a kinetic model of the neutral cometary environment with measurements from the Neutral Mass Spectrometer and the Dust Impact Detection System onboard the Giotto spacecraft taken during the fly-by at Comet 1P/Halley in 1986. We also show that our model is in good agreement with contemporaneous measurements obtained by the International Ultraviolet Explorer, sounding rocket experiments, and various ground based observations.The model solves the Boltzmann equation with a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo technique (Tenishev, V., Combi, M., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J. 685, 659-677) by tracking trajectories of gas molecules and dust grains under the influence of the comet’s weak gravity field with momentum exchange among particles modeled in a probabilistic manner. The cometary nucleus is considered to be the source of dust and the parent species (in our model: H₂O, CO, H₂CO, CO₂, CH₃OH, C₂H₆, C₂H₄, C₂H₂, HCN, NH₃, and CH₄) in the coma. Subsequently our model also tracks the corresponding dissociation products (H, H₂, O, OH, C, CH, CH₂, CH₃, N, NH, NH₂, C₂, C₂H, C₂H₅, CN, and HCO) from the comet’s surface all the way out to 10⁶ km.As a result we are able to further constrain cometary the gas production rates of CO (13%), CO₂ (2.5%), and H₂CO (1.5%) relative to water without invoking unknown extended sources.     

Geo-informational simulation of possible changes in Central Asian water resources

This study simulates water resources in the Tien Shan alpine basins to forecast how global and regional climate changes would affect river runoff. The model employed annual mean values for the major characteristics of the water cycle: annual air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and river runoff. The simulation was based on 304 hydro-meteorological stations, 23 precipitation sites, 328 high altitudinal points with glaciological measurements, 123 stream-gauges, and 54 evaporation sites, and it took into account topography. The findings were simulated over Tien Shan relief using a 1:500,000 scale 100 m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model. An applicable GIS-based distributed River Runoff Model was implemented in regional conditions and tested in the Tien Shan basins. The annual evapotranspiration exceeds the river runoff in the Tien Shan watersheds particularly up to 3700 m. Hypothetical climate-change scenarios in the Tien Shan predict that by 2100 river runoff will increase by 1.047 times with an increase in air temperature averaging 3 °C and an increase in precipitation averaging 1.2 times the current levels. Change in precipitation, rather than temperature, is the main parameter determining river runoff in the Tien Shan. The maximum ratio for predicted river runoff could reach up to 2.2 and the minimum is predicted to be 0.55 times current levels. This possibly dramatic change in river runoff indicates on non-linear system response caused mainly by the non-linear response of evapotranspiration from air temperature and precipitation changes. In the frame of forecasted possible climate change scenarios the probability of river runoff growth amounts 83–87% and probability of this decline is 17–13% by 2100 in the Tien Shan River basins.     

Recent contamination by persistent organochlorines in Baikal seal (Phoca sibirica) from Lake Baikal, Russia

Blubber samples of Baikal seals pups (Phoca sibirica) collected in 2001 and 2002 were analyzed for persistent organochlorines (OCs) such as PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls), DDTs (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites), HCHs (hexachlorocyclohexane isomers), CHLs (chlordane related compounds), TCPMe [tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane] and TCPMOH [tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol]. The distribution pattern of OCs was in the following order: DDTs>PCBs>CHLs>HCHs>TCPMOH>TCPMe. Organochlorine concentrations and composition patterns in eight pup blubber samples (2002) analyzed in the present study were compared with the corresponding levels in juvenile Baikal seals from 1992 survey, and it was found that residue levels of OC compounds have declined during the 10 year period. In particular, concentrations of PCBs, HCHs and CHLs in seals collected in 2002 were approximately two times lower, while DDTs levels were three times lower than the corresponding levels in 1992. Furthermore, higher ratios of beta-HCH/HCHs and p,p(')-DDE/DDTs were found in 2002 samples. While comparing the OC levels with those in other seal pups it appeared that all the OC concentrations were lower than the levels in seals from coastal California known as one of the most polluted areas. PCB and DDT concentrations in the present specimens were higher than that in Arctic seal pups. The proportions of tri-, tetra-, penta- and hexachlorobiphenyls in pups captured in 2002 were higher than those in 1992. TEQ concentrations of non- and mono-ortho coplanar PCBs in Baikal seals collected in 2002 were higher than those in seals collected from some locations in the world, where human and industrial activities are extensive, suggesting potential for toxic implications of coplanar PCBs in Baikal seals.     

Cross-correlation earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemical and geoacoustic signals for the Kamchatka peninsula

We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a general statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series. We consider an example of cross-correlation analysis for water salinity time series, an integral characteristic of the chemical composition of groundwater, and geoacoustic emissions recorded at the G-1 borehole on the Kamchatka peninsula in the time frame from 2001 to 2003, which is characterized by a sequence of three groups of significant seismic events. We found that cross-correlation precursors took place 27, 31, and 35 days ahead of the strongest earthquakes for each group of seismic events, respectively. At the same time, precursory anomalies in the signals themselves were observed only in the geoacoustic emissions for one group of earthquakes.     

Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan

Predictions of a warmer climate over the Great Lakes region due to global change generally agree on the magnitude of temperature changes, but precipitation projections exhibit dependence on which General Circulation Models and emission scenarios are chosen. To minimize model- and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were analyzed for mid- (2046–2065) and end-century (2081–2100) intervals, for six locations of a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. As a result of Bayesian Weighted Averaging, total annual precipitation averaged over all locations and the three emission scenarios increases by 7 % (mid-)–10 % (end-century), as compared to the control period (1961–1990). The projected changes across seasons are non-uniform and precipitation decreases by 3 % (mid-)–5 % (end-) for the months of August and September are likely. Further, average temperature is very likely to increase by 2.02–2.85 °C by the mid-century and 2.58–4.73 °C by the end-century. Three types of non-additive uncertainty sources due to climate models, anthropogenic forcings, and climate internal variability are addressed. When compared to the emission uncertainty, the relative magnitudes of the uncertainty types for climate model ensemble and internal variability are 149 and 225 % for mean monthly precipitation, and they are respectively 127 and 123 % for mean monthly temperature. A decreasing trend of the frost days and an increasing trend of the growing season length are identified. Also, a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected, with relatively more pronounced changes for heavy hourly rainfall as compared to daily events. Quantifying the inherent natural uncertainty and projecting hourly-based extremes, the study results deliver useful information for water resource stakeholders interested in impacts of climate change on hydro-morphological processes.     

Features of geonomic prognostic functions for the maximum possible earthquake

The recent artificial intelligence techniques are commonly applied to solving problems in which multidimensional statistical analyses of various quantities and their modelling prognostic functions can be used. This paper attempts to summarize the characteristics of the prognostic functions applied in the determination of the maximum possible earthquake. Geonomic quantities are reviewed and categorized with respect to their influence upon the estimation of the maximum possible earthquake.     

Age and pyrite Pb-isotopic composition of the giant Sukhoi Log sediment-hosted gold deposit, Russia

Sukhoi Log is one of the largest gold deposits in Russia (1100 t Au at 2.45 g/t). Like many other sediment-hosted gold deposits throughout the world, Sukhoi Log preserves textural, structural and geochemical evidence for multiple generations of Au enrichment and pyrite growth.The deposit is located in the Lena gold province of Siberia, on the edge of the Siberian Craton and occurs in the core of a recumbent anticline in a Neoproterozoic black shale and quartz-rich siltstone-sandstone turbidite succession. Temporal constraints on pyrite paragenesis at the deposit have been determined using laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) measurements of U, Th and Pb isotopes in pyrite, monazite and zircon. LA-ICPMS age determinations on detrital zircons indicate the host rocks were deposited after 600 ± 10 Ma and derived from a mixture of Palaeoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic sources. The U, Th and Pb isotopic systematics indicate the cores of large monazite crystals, which predate obvious tectonic fabric development in the host rocks, began growing at 573 ± 12 Ma. The rims of the same monazite crystals formed at 516 ± 10 Ma, during peak metamorphism and deformation. Small monazite crystals also grew in the sedimentary rocks during the Devonian (374 ± 20 Ma) and the Carboniferous or Early Permian (288 ± 22 Ma), possibly in response to fluid movements triggered by synchronous granite intrusion in the area. Multi-collector and quadrupole LA-ICPMS Pb isotopic determination on pyrite, combined with overprinting criteria, show that the earliest (stratiform) Pb and Au-bearing pyrite formed prior to metamorphism—possibly during sedimentation or early diagenesis (575-600 Ma). Small Au-rich pyrite nodules preserved as cores to folded bedding-parallel pyrite-quartz veins probably grew during late diagenesis or early metamorphism. Large pyrite euhedra, which overgrow the strong axial planar cleavage in the host rocks, have more radiogenic Pb-isotopic compositions and formed either late during or after deformation. Framboidal pyrite that is overgrown by both the late diagenetic-early metamorphic and syn- to post-metamorphic pyrite has the most radiogenic Pb-isotopic composition suggesting exchange with radiogenic Pb in the matrix may have continued until late in the history of the deposit.The dating and Pb isotopes support a multistage origin for the gold deposit with Au first introduced during or prior to growth of the earliest stratiform pyrite and progressively re-concentrated (with or without addition of further gold) during later metamorphic events.     

On the effects of triangulated terrain resolution on distributed hydrologic model response

Distributed hydrologic models based on triangulated irregular networks (TIN) provide a means for computational efficiency in small to large‐scale watershed modelling through an adaptive, multiple resolution representation of complex basin topography. Despite previous research with TIN‐based hydrology models, the effect of triangulated terrain resolution on basin hydrologic response has received surprisingly little attention. Evaluating the impact of adaptive gridding on hydrologic response is important for determining the level of detail required in a terrain model. In this study, we address the spatial sensitivity of the TIN‐based Real‐time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in order to assess the variability in the basin‐averaged and distributed hydrologic response (water balance, runoff mechanisms, surface saturation, groundwater dynamics) with respect to changes in topographic resolution. Prior to hydrologic simulations, we describe the generation of TIN models that effectively capture topographic and hydrographic variability from grid digital elevation models. In addition, we discuss the sampling methods and performance metrics utilized in the spatial aggregation of triangulated terrain models. For a 64 km² catchment in northeastern Oklahoma, we conduct a multiple resolution validation experiment by utilizing the tRIBS model over a wide range of spatial aggregation levels. Hydrologic performance is assessed as a function of the terrain resolution, with the variability in basin response attributed to variations in the coupled surface–subsurface dynamics. In particular, resolving the near‐stream, variable source area is found to be a key determinant of model behaviour as it controls the dynamic saturation pattern and its effect on rainfall partitioning. A relationship between the hydrologic sensitivity to resolution and the spatial aggregation of terrain attributes is presented as an effective means for selecting the model resolution. Finally, the study highlights the important effects of terrain resolution on distributed hydrologic model response and provides insight into the multiple resolution calibration and validation of TIN‐based hydrology models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurements of turbulence and fossil turbulence near ampere seamount

Measurements of temperature and velocity microstructure near and downstream of a shallow seamount are used to compare fossil turbulence versus non-fossil turbulence models for the evolution of turbulence microstructure patches in the stratified ocean. According to non-fossil oceanic turbulence models, all overturn length scales L_T of the microstructure grow and collapse in constant proportion to each other and to the turbulence energy (Oboukov) scale L_O and the inertial buoyancy (Ozmidov) scale of the patches; that is, with L_Trms ≈1.2L_R and viscous dissipation rate ≈ ₀^*. According to the Gibson fossil turbulence model, all microstructure originates from completely active turbulence with ₀ ≈ 3L_T²N³(≈ 28₀^*) and L_{T/√6 ≈ LTrms}, but this rapidly decays into a more persistent active-fossil state with _0F ≈ 30vN², where N is the buoyancy frequency and v is the kinematic viscosity and, without further energy supply, finally reaches a completely fossil turbulence hydrodynamic state of internal wave motions, with _F. The last turbulence eddies, with ≈ _F, vanish at a buoyant-inertial-viscous (fossil Kolmogorov) scale L_KF that is much smaller than the remnant overturn scales L_T for large ₀/_F ratios. These density, temperature, and salinity overturns with L_T ≈ 0.6 L_R0 0.6 L_R persist as turbulence fossils (by retaining the memory of _o) and collapse very slowly. In the near wake below the summit depth of Ampere seamount, a much larger proportion of completely active turbulence patches was found than is usually found in the ocean interior away from sources. Dissipation rates and turbulence activity coefficients of microstructure patches were found to decrease downstream, suggesting that the active turbulence indicated by the patches with A_T 1 was caused by the presence of the seamount as a turbulence source. Therefore, the turbulence and mixing processes of ocean layers far away from turbulence sources probably have been undersampled by microstructure data sets lacking any A_T 1 patches. This is because large fractions of the mixing and viscous dissipation of the patches occur in short-lived active turbulence regimes that are too brief to be detected. Consequently, large underestimates of the true space-time average turbulence fluxes and turbulence and scalar dissipation rates may result if non-fossil turbulence models are assumed in ocean microstructure data interpretation.