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遗忘因子自适应最小二乘算法及其在气温预报中的应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
海量数据的利用是建立自适应预报模型的基础,但随着数据的不断增加,新引入数据的作用会逐渐降低,有可能导致预报模型失效。为克服因数据量增加引起的所谓"数据饱和"现象对天气预报效果的影响,本文给出了考虑遗忘因子的线性自适应最小二乘建模算法的原理和方法,并利用该算法进行了最高气温和最低气温预报试验。结果表明,考虑遗忘因子的线性自适应建模算法优于传统的线性自适应建模算法,加入遗忘因子可以避免产生"数据饱和"现象,适当地选择遗忘因子有助于提高模型的预报准确率。 相似文献
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The metric spectral data obtained at the Yunnan Observatory from July 1990 to December 1991 are analysed and some type III bursts associated with millisecond spikes are found. Their different morphologies reveal the relation between the type III bursts and the millisecond spikes. Based on the occurrence time and the characteristics of continuity and changes of the morphologies in the spikes and the type III bursts of two typical events, we verify that the acceleration region of the coronal electrons is located above the emitting region of the millisecond spikes and the type III bursts. The observations show that the interface frequency of a pair of type III bursts lies near 250 MHz. Finally the authors attempt to explain qualitatively the generating mechanism of the metric millisecond spike-type III bursts by means of the plasma hypothesis. 相似文献
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The effects of baroclinic basic flow on a paralleled mesoscale disturbance development are investigated.By using the WKB method,two-dimensional perturbation equations with the anelastic approximation areanalyzed.The result indicates that the symmetric development of a mesoscale disturbance is due to the in-homogeneous thermal wind deviations and unstationality of the basic field. 相似文献
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Zhao Ruixing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(2):186-193
In this paper,by using generalized normal mode method the symmetric instability criterion which can be used not only in the constant parameters but also in the variable parameters was derived from the energy equation on the symmetric disturbance.If the thermal wind was in balance or quasi-balance,the criterion was consistent with that obtained by Emanuel with parcel method and Hoskins with normal mode method.It is shown that in the generating stage of disturbance,the symmetrically instable development of disturbance is associated with the energy transformation by which the energy of the basic field is transferred into the energy of the disturbance field. 相似文献
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中尺度扰动的对称发展 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:4
本文主要研究了斜压基本气流中中尺度对称型扰动发展的问题,旨在揭示中尺度扰动发展的内在本质。文中应用WKB方法,分析了二维动量无辐散近似下的扰动方程。结果是,中尺度扰动波包对称发展的原因是基本场的不均匀热成风偏差和非定常性。 相似文献
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道路路口和拐角是地图制图、地图综合和相关制图规范中经常涉及的一个空间概念,而空间概念的建模、度量和特征识别是地图综合和GIS的难点之一。本文提出了道路路口和拐角的识别与重要性定量度量方法。首先,分析了道路路口和拐角的概念和空间特征,然后,设计了识别算法和步骤,并制定了道路路口重要性的定量度量方法。实验分析表明:本文方法能够正确识别道路路口和拐角,且路口重要性指标能够反映区域地理特点。 相似文献