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Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Daniel G. Brown Derek T. Robinson Li An Moira Zellner William Rand Rick Riolo Bobbi Low 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):805-818
We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns. 相似文献
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Page DS Boehm PD Brown JS Neff JM Burns WA Bence AE 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(4):422-436
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected between 1990 and 2002 from 11 sites on the shores of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, that were heavily oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). This study, utilizing the methods of the NOAA Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program, found that concentrations of PAH released from spill remnants have decreased dramatically with time and by 2002 were at or near the range of total PAH (TPAH) of 3-355 ng/g dry weight obtained for mussels from unoiled reference sites in PWS. Time-series TPAH data indicate a mean TPAH half-life in mussel tissues of 2.4 years with a range from 1.4 to 5.3, yielding an annual mean loss of bioaccumulated TPAH of 25%. The petroleum-derived TPAH fraction in mussel tissues has decreased with time, reflecting the decreasing release of EVOS residues in shoreline sediments. These results show that PAH from EVOS residues that remain buried in shoreline sediments after the early 1990s are in a form and at locations that have a low accessibility to mussels living in the intertidal zone. 相似文献
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Domenico Voltolina Leslie N. Brown Maurice G. Robinson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(6):817-822
The results of eight sets of repeated observations on the vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum layer in a shallow lagoon during a red tide show that these were more frequently hydrologically induced, rather than due to active vertical migrations of the red tide-forming organism. These results are discussed and compared to those existing in the literature, with special regard to the role of light and nitrogen in conditioning vertical migrations in red tide-forming dinoflagellates. 相似文献
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Geology of the Continental Margin of Enderby and Mac. Robertson Lands, East Antarctica: Insights from a Regional Data Set 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
H. M. J. Stagg J. B. Colwel N. G. Direen P. E. O’Brien G. Bernardel I. Borissova B. J. Brown T. Ishirara 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2004,25(3-4):183-219
In 2001 and 2002, Australia acquired an integrated geophysical data set over the deep-water continental margin of East Antarctica
from west of Enderby Land to offshore from Prydz Bay. The data include approximately 7700 km of high-quality, deep-seismic
data with coincident gravity, magnetic and bathymetry data, and 37 non-reversed refraction stations using expendable sonobuoys.
Integration of these data with similar quality data recorded by Japan in 1999 allows a new regional interpretation of this
sector of the Antarctic margin.
This part of the Antarctic continental margin formed during the breakup of the eastern margin of India and East Antarctica,
which culminated with the onset of seafloor spreading in the Valanginian. The geology of the Antarctic margin and the adjacent
oceanic crust can be divided into distinct east and west sectors by an interpreted crustal boundary at approximately 58° E.
Across this boundary, the continent–ocean boundary (COB), defined as the inboard edge of unequivocal oceanic crust, steps
outboard from west to east by about 100 km.
Structure in the sector west of 58° E is largely controlled by the mixed rift-transform setting. The edge of the onshore Archaean–Proterozoic
Napier Complex is downfaulted oceanwards near the shelf edge by at least 6 km and these rocks are interpreted to underlie
a rift basin beneath the continental slope. The thickness of rift and pre-rift rocks cannot be accurately determined with
the available data, but they appear to be relatively thin. The margin is overlain by a blanket of post-rift sedimentary rocks
that are up to 6 km thick beneath the lower continental slope.
The COB in this sector is interpreted from the seismic reflection data and potential field modelling to coincide with the
base of a basement depression at 8.0–8.5 s two-way time, approximately 170 km oceanwards of the shelf-edge bounding fault
system. Oceanic crust in this sector is highly variable in character, from rugged with a relief of more than 1 km over distances
of 10–20 km, to rugose with low-amplitude relief set on a long-wavelength undulating basement. The crustal velocity profile
appears unusual, with velocities of 7.6–7.95 km s−1 being recorded at several stations at a depth that gives a thickness of crust of only 4 km. If these velocities are from
mantle, then the thin crust may be due to the presence of fracture zones. Alternatively, the velocities may be coming from
a lower crust that has been heavily altered by the intrusion of mantle rocks.
The sector east of 58° E has formed in a normal rifted margin setting, with complexities in the east from the underlying structure
of the N–S trending Palaeozoic Lambert Graben. The Napier Complex is downfaulted to depths of 8–10 km beneath the upper continental
slope, and the margin rift basin is more than 300 km wide. As in the western sector, the rift-stage rocks are probably relatively
thin. This part of the margin is blanketed by post-rift sediments that are up to about 8 km thick.
The interpreted COB in the eastern sector is the most prominent boundary in deep water, and typically coincides with a prominent
oceanwards step-up in the basement level of up to 1 km. As in the west, the interpretation of this boundary is supported by
potential field modelling. The oceanic crust adjacent to the COB in this sector has a highly distinctive character, commonly
with (1) a smooth upper surface underlain by short, seaward-dipping flows; (2) a transparent upper crustal layer; (3) a lower
crust dominated by dipping high-amplitude reflections that probably reflect intruded or altered shears; (4) a strong reflection
Moho, confirmed by seismic refraction modelling; and (5) prominent landward-dipping upper mantle reflections on several adjacent
lines. A similar style of oceanic crust is also found in contemporaneous ocean basins that developed between Greater India
and Australia–Antarctica west of Bruce Rise on the Antarctic margin, and along the Cuvier margin of northwest Australia. 相似文献