Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.     

Ecological responses of plant species and communities to climate warming: upward shift or range filling processes?

The fate of alpine species in response to climate warming is still unclear. We analyze effects of climate warming on the composition of alpine plants communities and unravel the range filling of communities within a belt from long-term true upward shift processes. In the European Alps we re-sampled in 2003 the vegetation at sites studied in 1953 and analyzed the changes at intra- and inter-community level. Since 1953 all communities experienced a high species turnover, leading to an overall increase in species richness as new species exceeded species losses. The dominant species mainly declined allowing the potential expansion of competitors and/or of new species. The main recruitment sources are neighbor communities within the same elevation belt performing biotic exchanges with other plant communities in the same altitudinal belts. The changes of species distribution curves with elevation emphasized that more than half of the most widespread persisting species exhibited downward shifts instead of upward shifts. Upward shifts from lower elevation belts and of nonnative species were very limited. One third of the persisting species declined and could be used as a proxy to measure the extinction debt. Therefore the fate of plant communities will depend on the ability of the original species to persist and fill the available ecological gaps. Species persistence may be crucial in developing adaptation and environmental protection strategies.     

Effects of limestone petrography and calcite microstructure on OPC clinker raw meals burnability

Mineralogy and Petrology - Limestone represents the main raw material for ordinary Portland cement clinker production. In this study eight natural limestones from different geological environments...     

TG/plus—a pyrolysis method for following maturation of oil and gas generation zones using Tmax of methane

Thermogravimetric Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (TG-FTIR) analyses were carried out on two sets of isolated kerogens covering a wide maturity range from low mature (0.46% R_o) through the end of oil and gas generation (maximum R_{o = 5.32%}). Data onweight percent and T_max for evolution of methane, volatile tars, ethylene, SO₂, NH₃, CO₂, and CO are reported. The T_max of methane shows the most consistent response to increasing maturation in both sets of samples. Results are comparable to those of whole rocks from an Alaskan North Slope well analyzed previously. The collective data for both whole rocks and isolated kerogens shows a generally linear correlation between %R_o and T_max of methane, with the exception of R_o of about 2.0% where a dip in the curve occurs. The slope of the correlation line was steeper for the predominantly terrigenous Wilcox kerogen than for more marine Colorado kerogen or for the Alaskan North Slope whole rock samples, probably reflecting differences in the chemical nature of various kerogen sets, which is also reflected by differences in the shapes of the pyrolysis curves of SO₂, CO₂, CO, H₂O, and ethylene. These preliminary data indicate that T_max of methane is a good maturation indicator for whole rocks and isolated kerogens up to an R_o of about 4%, which includes all of the wet gas and a considerable portion of the dry gas generation zones. This correlation was also observed for samples containing migrated bitumen, where it was not possible to obtain a reliable T_max for the volatile tar (S2) peak. The more terrigenous Wilcox kerogens also showed a good correlation of the T_max of ethylene with %R_o. T_max of ammonia evolution did not correlate with maturity and occurred 100–200°C lower than previously found for whole rocks, consistent with a whole-rock source of pyrolytic ammonia for Alaskan whole rock samples. HI and OI indices were calculated in several ways and plotted to reflect kerogen type as well as both the residual oil and gas generation potential. The ratio of pyrolyzable to combustible sulfur (evolved as SO₂) was independent of maturity and showed a clear difference between the more terrigenous Wilcox kerogens and the more marine Colorado kerogens.     

Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment

An effective assessment of shallow landslide hazard requires spatially distributed modelling of triggering processes. This is possible by using physically based models that allow us to simulate the transient hydrological and geotechnical processes responsible for slope instability. Some simplifications are needed to address the lack of data and the difficulty of calibration over complex terrain at the catchment's scale. We applied two simple hydrological models, coupled with the infinite slope stability analysis, to the May 1998 landslide event in Sarno, Southern Italy. A quasi-dynamic model (Barling et al., 1994) was used to model the contribution to instability of lateral flow by simulating the time-dependent formation of a groundwater table in response to rainfall. A diffusion model [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 1897] was used to model the role of vertical flux by simulating groundwater pressures that develop in response to heavy rainstorms. The quasi-dynamic model overestimated the slope instability over the whole area (more than 16%) but was able to predict correctly slope instability within zero order basins where landslides occurred and developed into large debris flows. The diffusion model simulated correctly the triggering time of more than 70% of landslides within an unstable area amounting to 7.3% of the study area. These results support the hypothesis that both vertical and lateral fluxes were responsible for landslide triggering during the Sarno event, and confirm the utility of such models as tools for hazard planning and land management.     

The Tajik Basin: A composite record of sedimentary basin evolution in response to tectonics in the Pamir

Investigation of a >6-km-thick succession of Cretaceous to Cenozoic sedimentary rocks in the Tajik Basin reveals that this depocentre consists of three stacked basin systems that are interpreted to reflect different mechanisms of subsidence associated with tectonics in the Pamir Mountains: a Lower to mid-Cretaceous succession, an Upper Cretaceous–Lower Eocene succession and an Eocene–Neogene succession. The Lower to mid-Cretaceous succession consists of fluvial deposits that were primarily derived from the Triassic Karakul–Mazar subduction–accretion complex in the northern Pamir. This succession is characterized by a convex-up (accelerating) subsidence curve, thickens towards the Pamir and is interpreted as a retroarc foreland basin system associated with northward subduction of Tethyan oceanic lithosphere. The Upper Cretaceous to early Eocene succession consists of fine-grained, marginal marine and sabkha deposits. The succession is characterized by a concave-up subsidence curve. Regionally extensive limestone beds in the succession are consistent with late stage thermal relaxation and relative sea-level rise following lithospheric extension, potentially in response to Tethyan slab rollback/foundering. The Upper Cretaceous–early Eocene succession is capped by a middle Eocene to early Oligocene (ca. 50–30 Ma) disconformity, which is interpreted to record the passage of a flexural forebulge. The disconformity is represented by a depositional hiatus, which is 10–30 Myr younger than estimates for the initiation of India–Asia collision and overlaps in age with the start of prograde metamorphism recorded in the Pamir gneiss domes. Overlying the disconformity, a >4-km-thick upper Eocene–Neogene succession displays a classic, coarsening upward unroofing sequence characterized by accelerating subsidence, which is interpreted as a retro-foreland basin associated with crustal thickening of the Pamir during India–Asia collision. Thus, the Tajik Basin provides an example of a long-lived composite basin in a retrowedge position that displays a sensitivity to plate margin processes. Subsidence, sediment accumulation and basin-forming mechanisms are influenced by subduction dynamics, including periods of slab-shallowing and retreat.     

Modelling the Transport and Export of Sediments in Macrotidal Estuaries with Eroding Salt Marsh

A process-based numerical model is applied to investigate sediment transport dynamics and sediment budget in tide-dominated estuaries under different salt marsh erosion scenarios. Using a typical funnel-shaped estuary (Ribble Estuary, UK) as a study site, it is found that the remobilization of sediments within the estuary is increased as a result of the tidal inundation of the eroded salt marsh. The landward export of the finest sediment is also intensified. The relationship between salt marsh erosion and net landward export of sediments has been found to be non-linear—with the first 30% salt marsh erosion causing most of the predicted export. The presence of vegetation also influences the sediment budget. Results suggest that vegetation reduces the amount of sediment being transported upstream. Again, the trapping effect of salt marsh in terms of plant density is non-linear. Whilst a vegetated surface with a stem density of 64 plants/m² decreased the net landward export of very fine sand by around 50%, a further increase in stem density from 64 to 512 plants/m² had a relatively small effect.     

Tufa and travertines of southern Italy: deep‐seated,fault‐related CO2 as the key control in precipitation

Continental carbonates of Quaternary age in southern Italy commonly exhibit the facies of calcareous tufa, often reported as related to shallow aquifers fed by meteoric waters and to organic processes. A close spatial relationship exists between the mappable tufa deposits and major Quaternary extensional faults. With respect to the Ca‐Mg‐HCO₃ composition of limestone aquifers’ springs, tufa‐depositing springs exhibit higher salinity and alkalinity, are slightly warmer, have lower pH and are enriched in SO₄ and CO₂. Their δ¹³C values are systematically positive and compatible with a deep‐seated carbon source. A clear input of soil‐derived organic carbon is indicated only for small, non‐mappable tufas deposited by perched springs. The dataset indicates that the large tufa deposits owe their origin to a supplementary source of CO₂ advected by degassing through active faults, as a necessary prerequisite for inducing a rise of total dissolved salts and alkalinity. Meteoric waters that have come from a shallow aquifer are able to precipitate only limited amount of carbonates.