Acoustically relevant bubble assemblages and their dependence onmeteorological parameters

A detailed physical model of the life history of a typical bubble plume, from its formation by a breaking wave to its dissipation into the background bubble population, is given, and the relationship between the early, acoustically relevant stages in bubble-plume development and the associated, remotely detectable whitecap is described. The manner in which the fraction of the sea surface covered by stage A spilling crests and by stage B mature whitecaps depends upon wind speed and upon wind stress or friction velocity is investigated. Formal expressions are given whereby near-surface bubble concentrations can be estimated from observations of fractional whitecap coverage or from measurements of the 10-m elevation wind speed     

Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate

This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.     

The spray contribution to net evaporation from the sea: A review of recent progress

The part that sea spray plays in the air-sea transfer of heat and moisture has been a controversial question for the last two decades. With general circulation models (GCMs) suggesting that perturbations in the Earth's surface heat budget of only a few W m^–2 can initiate major climatic variations, it is crucial that we identify and quantify all the terms in that heat budget. Thus, here we review recent work on how sea spray contributes to the sea surface heat and moisture budgets. In the presence of spray, the near-surface atmosphere is characterized by a droplet evaporation layer (DEL) with a height that scales with the significant-wave amplitude. The majority of spray transfer processes occur within this layer. As a result, the DEL is cooler and more moist than the atmospheric surface layer would be under identical conditions but without the spray. Also, because the spray in the DEL provides elevated sources and sinks for heat and moisture, the vertical heat fluxes are no longer constant with height. We use Eulerian and Lagrangian models and a simple analytical model to study the processes important in spray droplet dispersion and evaporation within this DEL. These models all point to the conclusion that, in high winds (above about 15 m/s), sea spray begins to contribute significantly to the air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture. For example, we estimate that, in a 20-m/s wind, with an air temperature of 20°C, a sea surface temperature of 22°C, and a relative humidity of 80%, the latent and sensible heat fluxes resulting from the spray alone will have magnitudes of order 150 and 15 W/m², respectively, in the DEL. Finally, we speculate on what fraction of these fluxes rise out of the DEL and, thus, become available to the entire marine boundary layer.     

Moving Beyond Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory in Modelling Wind-Speed Profiles in the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer under Stable Stratification

Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is commonly used to model the wind-speed profile at altitudes relevant to wind-power production (e.g. 10–200 m). Though reasonably accurate for unstable to weakly stable stratification, this approach becomes less accurate under increasingly stable stratification, largely due to the constant-flux surface layer assumed by MOST becoming shallower than the altitude range of interest. Furthermore, above the surface layer, the Coriolis force has a considerable influence on the wind-speed profile (in particular in the formation of low-level jets) that cannot be modelled using similarity theory. Our goal is to compare the accuracy of alternative extrapolation models that are more physically appropriate above the surface layer. Using data from the 213-m Cabauw meteorological tower in the Netherlands between July 2007 and June 2008, it is shown that MOST is accurate only at low altitudes and low stability, and breaks down at high altitudes and high stability. Local similarity is generally more accurate than MOST across all altitudes and stabilities, though the model requires turbulent flux data at multiple altitudes that is generally impractical. In contrast, a two-layer MOST–Ekman model is found to be comparable to the other models at low stability ranges and considerably more accurate in the high stability range, while requiring only a measure of surface stability and the geostrophic wind.     

Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation

A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system.     

Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed

Surface wind speed is a key climatic variable of interest in many applications, including assessments of storm-related infrastructure damage and feasibility studies of wind power generation. In this work and a companion paper (van der Kamp et al. 2011), the relationship between local surface wind and large-scale climate variables was studied using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was performed using monthly mean station data from British Columbia, Canada and large-scale climate variables (predictors) from the NCEP-2 reanalysis over the period 1979–2006. Two regression-based methodologies were compared. The first relates the annual cycle of station wind speed to that of the large-scale predictors at the closest grid box to the station. It is shown that the relatively high correlation coefficients obtained with this method are attributable to the dominant influence of region-wide seasonality, and thus contain minimal information about local wind behaviour at the stations. The second method uses interannually varying data for individual months, aggregated into seasons, and is demonstrated to contain intrinsically local information about the surface winds. The dependence of local wind speed upon large-scale predictors over a much larger region surrounding the station was also explored, resulting in 2D maps of spatial correlations. The cross-validated explained variance using the interannual method was highest in autumn and winter, ranging from 30 to 70% at about a dozen stations in the region. Reasons for the limited predictive skill of the regressions and directions for future progress are reviewed.     

Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979–2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500?hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well.     

Oceanic whitecaps: Sea surface features detectable via satellite that are indicators of the magnitude of the air-sea gas transfer coefficient

Stage A whitecaps (spilling wave crests) have a microwave emissivity of close to 1. Thus if even a small fraction of the sea surface is covered by these features there will be a detectable enhancement in the apparent microwave brightness temperature of that surface as determined by satellite-borne microwave radiometers. This increase in the apparent microwave brightness temperature can as a consequence be routinely used to estimate the fraction of the sea surface covered by stage A whitecaps. For all but the very lowest wind speeds it has been shown in a series of controlled experiments that the air-sea gas transfer coefficient for each of a wide range of gases, including carbon dioxide and oxygen, is directly proportional to the fraction of the sea surface covered by these stage A whitecaps.     

Northern Hemisphere circulation regimes: observed, simulated and predicted

Nonlinear principal component analysis provides evidence that the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere supports three distinct circulation regimes with an average residence time of about 7 days. The role of high- and low-frequency dynamics is studied and results indicate that they are both involved in the formation, maintenance and decay of the regimes. A global coupled climate model also supports three distinct circulation regimes with strikingly similar spatial structures, residence times and linked high- and low-frequency dynamics to those observed. The issue related to how long a data record is required to properly resolve the regime structures is addressed by exploiting the model output. Regime residence times and spatial structures are predicted to change over the next century given increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases.