Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Experimental determination of the chromium-aluminum mixing parameter in garnet

The equilibrium Grossular + Quartz = Anorthite + 2 Wollastonite was used to obtain the mixing properties of Cr and Al in grossular-uvarovite solid solutions by determining displacement of the univariant boundary curve for measured values of $\text{x}{}_{\mathrm{gross}}{}^{\mathrm{gt}}$. Experiments were performed in a piston cylinder apparatus with initial garnet compositions Gr₁₀₀, Gr₈₀Uv₅₀, Gr₅₀Uv₅₀, and Gr₂₀Uv₈₀. Reversals were obtained in the temperature range 1040°C–1320°C and corrected pressure range 10–17 kbar. Results indicate that grossular-uvarovite solutions can be modeled as nearly ideal two-site solid solutions. W_G^Cr,Al of +200 to + 1000 cal/mole is consistent with our experimental results.     

Paraffin hydrocarbon patterns in petroleum-polluted mussels

This paper explains how modern analytical techniques can be used to detect hydrocarbons in marine organisms at extremely low concentrations, below those detectable by taste or smell.     

地下水水源保护区范围计算的KLF法及其在徐州张集地区的应用

详细介绍了地下水水源保护区范围的计算方法:Krijgsman-Lobo-Ferreira(KLF)法,分别推导出了正水流梯度方向、负水流梯度方向和垂直于地下水流方向保护区范围的计算公式,并就方法的适用性及参数取值等问题进行了探讨.在徐州张集地区应用的结果表明,KLF法提供了一种计算地下水保护区范围的便捷、科学、有效的方法,计算结果对于确定地下水源保护区范围及有效保护地下水源具有实际意义.     

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.     

Predatory pelagic fishes of the Bijagós Archipelago (Guinea-Bissau) show high overlap in diets dominated by sardinella

Knowledge of trophic interactions between the key components of marine communities is required to understand food-web dynamics and develop ecosystem-based management approaches. In West Africa, where fisheries sustain the livelihoods of a significant part of the human population, this understanding is even more urgent, especially in the face of rapidly expanding fisheries and some stock collapses in the region. We studied the feeding ecology of the Crevalle jack Caranx hippos, West African Spanish mackerel Scomberomorus tritor and Guinean barracuda Sphyraena afra in the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau. These are the most abundant pelagic predatory teleost fishes in the area, but little is known about their ecology despite being species with commercial and recreational value, and they likely also play an important role in various African coastal ecosystems. Our findings show a high degree of dietary overlap among these three predator species, despite some degree of segregation by prey size and type. All three predators depend on Sardinella maderensis as the most important prey, which together with other members of the Clupeidae represented 47–96% of the ingested prey items. There was little difference in the diets of the predators between the dry and rainy seasons. These novel findings suggest a ‘wasp-waist’-structured ecosystem in the Bijagós Archipelago in which S. maderensis is the central small-sized pelagic fish species, and stress the need for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management in the region, with precautionary measures taken to avoid the overexploitation of clupeids.     

An investigation into the effects of damping and nonlinear geometry models in earthquake engineering analysis

The growing emphasis of considering the behavior of structures at extreme performance states, such as collapse, has necessitated the characterization of the effects of varying attributes of the structural model. One source of variability that has not previously been considered is variability in the mathematical model. This study investigated the effects of changing the geometric nonlinearity approach and damping model on a four‐story buckling restrained braced frame, a four‐story steel moment resisting frame, and an eight‐story steel moment resisting frame. The variations in behavior are quantified using the maximum interstory drift ratio as the performance metric and qualified by comparing the relative displaced shapes and component response histories at the collapse performance state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of steel frame structures with hybrid passive control systems

The concept of the hybrid passive control system is studied analytically by investigating the seismic response of steel frame structures. Hybrid control systems consist of two different passive elements combined into a single device or system. The hybrid systems investigated in this research consist of a rate‐dependent damping device paired with a rate‐independent energy dissipation element. The innovative configurations exploit individual element strengths and offset their weaknesses through multiphased behavior. A nine‐story, five‐bay steel moment‐frame was used for the analysis. Six different seismic resisting systems were analyzed and compared. The conventional systems included a special moment‐resisting frame (SMRF) and a dual SMRF–buckling‐restrained brace (BRB) system. The final four configurations are hybrid passive systems. The different hybrid configurations utilize a BRB and either a high‐damping rubber damper or viscous fluid damper. The analyses were run in the form of an incremental dynamic analysis. Several damage measures were calculated, including maximum roof drift, base shear, and total roof acceleration. The results demonstrate the capability of hybrid passive control systems to improve structural response compared with conventional lateral systems and to be effective for performance‐based seismic design. Each hybrid configuration improved some aspect of structural response with some providing benefits for multiple damage measures. The multiphased nature provides improved response for frequent and severe seismic events. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic effects of a 10-year storm on a small drainage Basin in the Texas Panhandle

Bedded Permian salt in the Palo Duro Basin of the Texas Panhandle is being considered for isolation of nuclear waste. Studies underway to evaluate the geomorphic processes affecting any waste repository that may be sited in the region include studies of the geomorphic events associated with individual storms. On 26 May, 1978, thunderstorms occurred near Canyon, Texas, which received 130mm of rain, and on a small instrumented watershed at Buffalo Lake, 16 km to the southwest, which received 71 mm of rain. Rainfall at Buffalo Lake was concentrated in a period of 3 hours, representing a return period of approximately 10 years and a maximum 30-minute intensity of 64 mm/hour. Erosion-pin fields, topographic surveys, and stakes for headcut monitoring had been established 2 to 3 months before the storm in a 640-m long tributary canyon to Tierra Blanca Creek downstream of Buffalo Lake. Canyon slopes of moderately to slightly calichified sands and gravels of the Ogallala Formation are capped by well-indurated caliche on the canyon rim. Erosion-pin fields showed average net erosion of 2·4 cm (0° to 9° slope) to 2·7 cm (10° to 19° slope) and a single-pin maximum value of 6·2 cm in the 20° to 29° slope class. Headcuts 1 to 2 m deep in alluvial-colluvial material on the floor of the canyon migrated as much as 12 m upstream. Canyon floor deposition occurred as a series of elongate bars, 16m long and longer, located at the mouth of tributary gullies, downstream from scours, and at slope breaks. Grain sizes ranged from boulders up to 70cm in intermediate axis deposited in the upper canyon to fine to very fine sand deposited as a sheet up to 25cm thick beyond the mouth of the canyon at Tierra Blanca Creek. In an adjacent canyon a sequence of irregular beds of caliche gravel, mixed sand and gravel, and fine sand up to 3 m thick is exposed. Comparison of this sequence with deposits resulting from the 26 May, 1978, storm suggests that the coarse fraction of the alluvial sequence is deposited by repetitive major storm events. Cobble and boulder units 30 to 70cm thick can evidently be deposited in a few hours. Under the continental climate of the Texas Panhandle, erosion, deposition, and stream incision are taking place primarily in discrete steps related to episodes of intense rainfall.     

The olivine — clinopyroxene geobarometer: experimental results in the CaO-FeO-MgO-SiO2 system

The exchange of Ca and Mg between olivine and clinopyroxene has been studied in the CFMS system. Experiments were conducted in a piston-cylinder apparatus in the temperature range of 1,100–1,300° C and the pressure range 10–30 kbar. Results confirm the previous suggestion (Adams and Bishop 1982) that this reaction has a sufficiently large V° to be used as a geobarometer in several basic and ultrabasic systems. Experimental results were corrected for compositional effects using recent activity-composition models for quadrilateral pyroxenes and olivines. The corrected results indicate that the exchange reaction has aH _{1 bar} of 34,900 J, a S° of -7.25J/deg, and a V° of -0.489 J/bar. Corrected results agree well with calculations based on the thermodynamic properties of the endmembers.Application of the olivine-clinopyroxene geobarometer to many systems will require additional calibration of non CFMS components. Preliminary pressure estimates based on simple assumptions about the activity relations of these components have been made for spinel lherzolites from southwestern United States and coarse and porphyroclastic garnet lherzolites from southern Africa. A geotherm calculated from spinel lherzolites near the Rio Grande rift is consistent with a geophysical geotherm based on near-surface heat-flow measurements of 100 mW/m² or greater. Results on garnet lherzolites yield a southern African geotherm with no inflection which falls at somewhat higher temperatures than pyroxene geotherms calculated for the same area.