Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

Observations of Stellar Winds

The different methods for the study of stellar winds are discussed: (1) P Cygni profiles (2) atomic emission lines (3) infrared and radio free-free emission (4) molecular emission lines (5) infrared radiation by dust. For each of these methods we describe some characteristic observations and we discuss the way in which these data can be used to derive the mass loss rate and the velocity distribution of the wind. We discuss these from the basic physical point of view in order to obtain an understanding of the basic physical processes involved. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.     

The Baltimore and Utrecht models for cluster dissolution

The analysis of the age distributions of star cluster samples of different galaxies has resulted in two very different empirical models for the dissolution of star clusters: the Baltimore model and the Utrecht model. I describe these two models and their differences. The Baltimore model implies that the dissolution of star clusters is mass independent and that about 90% of the clusters are destroyed each age dex, up to an age of about a Gyr, after which point mass-dependent dissolution from two-body relaxation becomes the dominant mechanism. In the Utrecht model, cluster dissolution occurs in three stages: (i) mass-independent infant mortality due to the expulsion of gas up to about 10⁷ yr; (ii) a phase of slow dynamical evolution with strong evolutionary fading of the clusters lasting up to about a Gyr; and (iii) a phase dominated by mass-dependent dissolution, as predicted by dynamical models. I describe the cluster age distributions for mass-limited and magnitude-limited cluster samples for both models. I refrain from judging the correctness of these models.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.