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1.
Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution. 相似文献
2.
Arctic river basins are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. However, there is currently limited knowledge of the hydrological processes that govern flow dynamics in Arctic river basins. We address this research gap using natural hydrochemical and isotopic tracers to identify water sources that contributed to runoff in river basins spanning a gradient of glacierization (0–61%) in Svalbard during summer 2010 and 2011. Spatially distinct hydrological processes operating over diurnal, weekly and seasonal timescales were characterized by river hydrochemistry and isotopic composition. Two conceptual water sources (‘meltwater’ and ‘groundwater’) were identified and used as a basis for end‐member mixing analyses to assess seasonal and year‐to‐year variability in water source dynamics. In glacier‐fed rivers, meltwater dominated flows at all sites (typically >80%) with the highest contributions observed at the beginning of each study period in early July when snow cover was most extensive. Rivers in non‐glacierized basins were sourced initially from snowmelt but became increasingly dependent on groundwater inputs (up to 100% of total flow volume) by late summer. These hydrological changes were attributed to the depletion of snowpacks and enhanced soil water storage capacity as the active layer expanded throughout each melt season. These findings provide insight into the processes that underpin water source dynamics in Arctic river systems and potential future changes in Arctic hydrology that might be expected under a changing climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Hannah M. Clilverd Yin‐Phan Tsang Dana M. Infante Abigail J. Lynch Ayron M. Strauch 《水文研究》2019,33(5):699-719
Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna. 相似文献
4.
Development of large‐scale seismites in Upper Cretaceous fluvial sandstones in a fault‐proximal setting
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Michael C. Wizevich Edward L. Simpson Hannah L. Hilbert‐Wolf Sarah E. Tindall 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1719-1738
Large‐scale soft‐sediment deformation structures occur within fluvial sandstone bodies of the Upper Cretaceous Wahweap Formation in the Kaiparowits basin, southern Utah, USA. These structures represent an exceptional example of metre‐scale fault‐proximal, seismogenic load structures in nearly homogenous sandstones. The load structures consist of two types: large‐scale load casts and wedge‐shaped load structures. Large‐scale load casts penetrate up to 4·5 m into the underlying sandstone bed. Wedge‐shaped load structures include metre‐scale, parallel, sub‐vertical features and decimetre‐scale features along the periphery of the large‐scale load casts or other wedge‐shaped load structures. Wedge‐shaped load structures contain well‐developed, medial cataclastic shear deformation bands. All load structures contain pervasive well‐defined millimetre‐thick to centimetre‐thick internal laminae, oriented parallel to the outside form of the load structures and asymptotic to deformation bands. Both types of load structures formed because of an inverted density profile, earthquake‐triggered liquefaction and growth of irregularities (a Rayleigh–Taylor instability) on the sandstone–sandstone erosional contact. The internal laminae and deformation bands formed during deformation and clearly demonstrate polyphase deformation, recording a transition from liquefied to hydroplastic to brittle modes of deformation. Decimetre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures on the edge of the large‐scale load casts probably formed towards the end of a seismic event after the sediment dewatered and increased the frictional contact of grains enough to impart strength to the sands. Metre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures were created as the tips of downward foundering sediments were driven into fractures, which widened incrementally with seismic pulsation. With each widening of the fracture, gravity and a suction effect would draw additional sediment into the fracture. Superimposed laminae indicate a secondary syndeformational origin for internal laminae, probably by flow‐generated shearing and vibrofluidization mechanisms. Large‐scale and wedge‐shaped load structures, polyphase deformation and secondary laminae may characterize soft‐sediment deformation in certain fault‐proximal settings. 相似文献
5.
Meredith T. Niles Hannah Waterhouse Robert Parkhurst Eileen L. McLellan Sara Kroopf 《Climate Policy》2019,19(7):893-907
The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.
Key policy insights
Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized
Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices
Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation
6.
Jon M. Friedrich Hannah L. McLain Jason P. Dworkin Daniel P. Glavin W. Henry Towbin Morgan Hill Denton S. Ebel 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(1):220-228
X‐ray microcomputed tomography (μCT) is a useful means of characterizing cosmochemical samples such as meteorites or robotically returned samples. However, there are occasional concerns that the use of μCT may be detrimental to the organic components of a chondrite. Small organic compounds such as amino acids comprise up to ~10% of the total solvent extractable carbon in CM carbonaceous chondrites. We irradiated three samples of the Murchison CM carbonaceous chondrite under conditions akin to and harsher than those typically used during typical benchtop X‐ray μCT imaging experiments to determine if detectable changes in the amino acid abundance and distribution relative to a nonexposed Murchison control sample occurred. After subjecting three meteorite samples to ionizing radiation dosages between ~300 Gray (Gy) and 3 kGy with bremstrahlung X‐rays, we analyzed the amino acid content of each sample. Within sampling and analytical errors, we cannot discern differences in the amino acid abundances and amino acid enantiomeric ratios when comparing the control samples (nonexposed Murchison) and the irradiated samples. We conclude that a polychromatic X‐ray μCT experiment does not alter the abundances of amino acids to a degree greater than how well those abundances are measured with our techniques and therefore any damage to amino acids is minimal. 相似文献
7.
Jos C. Aponte Hannah K. Woodward Neyda M. Abreu Jamie E. Elsila Jason P. Dworkin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(2):415-430
The water‐soluble organic compounds in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites constitute a record of the synthetic reactions occurring at the birth of the solar system and those taking place during parent body alteration and may have been important for the later origins and development of life on Earth. In this present work, we have developed a novel methodology for the simultaneous analysis of the molecular distribution, compound‐specific δ13C, and enantiomeric compositions of aliphatic monocarboxylic acids (MCA) extracted from the hot‐water extracts of 16 carbonaceous chondrites from CM, CR, CO, CV, and CK groups. We observed high concentrations of meteoritic MCAs, with total carbon weight percentages which in some cases approached those of carbonates and insoluble organic matter. Moreover, we found that the concentration of MCAs in CR chondrites is higher than in the other meteorite groups, with acetic acid exhibiting the highest concentration in all samples. The abundance of MCAs decreased with increasing molecular weight and with increasing aqueous and/or thermal alteration experienced by the meteorite sample. The δ13C isotopic values of MCAs ranged from ?52 to +27‰, and aside from an inverse relationship between δ13C value and carbon straight‐chain length for C3–C6 MCAs in Murchison, the 13C‐isotopic values did not correlate with the number of carbon atoms per molecule. We also observed racemic compositions of 2‐methylbutanoic acid in CM and CR chondrites. We used this novel analytical protocol and collective data to shed new light on the prebiotic origins of chondritic MCAs. 相似文献
8.
This paper evaluates the potential of using cartograms for visualizing and interpreting forecasts of weather-driven natural hazards in the context of global weather forecasting and early warning systems. The use of cartograms is intended to supplement traditional cartographic representations of the hazards in order to highlight the severity of an upcoming event. Cartogrammetric transformations are applied to forecasts of floods, heatwaves, windstorms and snowstorms taken from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast archive. Key cartogram design principles in standard weather forecast visualization are tested. Optimal cartogram transformation is found to be dependent on geographical features (such as coastlines) and forecast features (such as snowstorm intensity). For highly spatially autocorrelated weather variables used in analysing several upcoming natural hazards such as 2m temperature anomaly, the visualization of the distortion provides a promising addition to standard forecast visualizations for highlighting upcoming weather-driven natural hazards. 相似文献
9.
The larval stage of fishes is critical in determining their dispersal, survival and recruitment, but little is known of the larval behaviours and tolerances of amphidromous fishes, particularly in New Zealand. We report the results of a series of observational and experimental studies on bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), including spawning sites and behaviours, larval characteristics at hatch, phototactic responses of larvae, and larval survival at different salinity levels. Spawning primarily occurred in the lower reaches of the river, and larvae from different nests exhibited marked differences in, and trade-offs between, larval characteristics at hatch, potentially affecting larval success. Larvae were positively phototactic to intense light, an unexpected result based on diel drift patterns and international research. Finally, larvae exhibited markedly higher survival rates when reared at intermediate salinities compared to freshwater or seawater, suggesting estuaries may play an important role as nursery grounds for bluegill bully and other amphidromous fish. 相似文献
10.
Thermophysical properties of Almahata Sitta meteorites (asteroid 2008 TC3) for high‐fidelity entry modeling
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Stefan Loehle Peter Jenniskens Hannah Böhrk Thomas Bauer Henning Elsäβer Derek W. Sears Michael E. Zolensky Muawia H. Shaddad 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(2):197-205
Asteroid 2008 TC3 was characterized in a unique manner prior to impacting Earth's atmosphere, making its October 7, 2008, impact a suitable field test for or validating the application of high‐fidelity re‐entry modeling to asteroid entry. The accurate modeling of the behavior of 2008 TC3 during its entry in Earth's atmosphere requires detailed information about the thermophysical properties of the asteroid's meteoritic materials at temperatures ranging from room temperature up to the point of ablation (T ~ 1400 K). Here, we present measurements of the thermophysical properties up to these temperatures (in a 1 atm. pressure of argon) for two samples of the Almahata Sitta meteorites from asteroid 2008 TC3: a thick flat‐faced ureilite suitably shaped for emissivity measurements and a thin flat‐faced EL6 enstatite chondrite suitable for diffusivity measurements. Heat capacity was determined from the elemental composition and density from a 3‐D laser scan of the sample. We find that the thermal conductivity of the enstatite chondrite material decreases more gradually as a function of temperature than expected, while the emissivity of the ureilitic material decreases at a rate of 9.5 × 10?5 K?1 above 770 K. The entry scenario is the result of the actual flight path being the boundary to the load the meteorite will be affected with when entering. An accurate heat load prediction depends on the thermophysical properties. Finally, based on these data, the breakup can be calculated accurately leading to a risk assessment for ground damage. 相似文献