Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.     

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕     

海岩小说的几种叙述模式及弊端

海岩的长篇小说《河流如血》再创出版高记录，但作家仍局限于特有的小说叙述模式，这部作品设能做到相应的创新。概言之，模式第一面是“刑侦＋恋爱”；模式第二面是“财子＋佳人”；模式第三面是“道德＋法制”。文学创作需要不断创新，创新的过程也是对创作模式的不断突破过程。作家应该警惕的是，不要让模式成为创作的桎梏。     

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果     

南海北缘北东东向构造活动性研究

从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说，这是一种新的学术思想。     

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。     

豫西前河构造蚀变岩型金矿成矿过程中的流体-岩石反应

前河金矿区位于华北地台南缘,赋存在中元古界熊耳群安山岩和英安岩中,矿体受断裂破碎带控制。含矿热液在迁移过程中与围岩发生了广泛的流体-岩石反应而引起热液蚀变。本区石英中有4种类型的流体包裹体,均一温度范围为145～331℃,其中含CO2包裹体的完全均一温度主要分布在中-高温区。成矿流体的密度和压力变化范围分别是0.68～0.94g/cm3和(367.01～896.55)×105Pa。金大量沉淀成矿时的流体特征为:温度213～260℃、密度0.80～0.89g/cm3和压力(502.86～710.57)×105Pa。流体相为SO42->Na >Cl->K 型,CO2/H2O比值及N2、H2S、Ar、C2H6等挥发分的含量明显增高,f(CO2)、f(H2S)、f(CH4)和Eh值增大;f(O2)、f(H2O)和pH值减小。在青磐岩化安山岩的基础上发生的流体-岩石反应是造成本矿床金沉淀成矿的最主要原因。     

贵州青岩剖面青岩阶上部牙形石的发现及其意义

在贵州青岩剖面的青岩组之上,原被认为是拉丁期的垄头组下部的层段中发现了牙形石动物群,除少量的分枝分子外,都归属于Neogondolella属,可鉴定为4个种,即Neogondolella bifurcata,N.constricta,N.mombergensis和N.navicula.建立了2个牙形石带,自下而上是Neogondolella bifurcata带和N.cinstricta带.牙形石面貌证明这段地层在时代上非常接近但尚未进入拉丁阶,属于安尼期中晚期,进一步的牙形石工作将很有可能在目前发现的牙形石层段的上部寻找到安尼阶和拉丁阶之间的界限,从而为青岩阶顶界的限定提供可靠的牙形石证据.此外,牙形石的发现还初步实现了青岩阶2大主导门类化石--牙形石和菊石在同一剖面的直接对比关系.