Stochastic Local Interaction Model: An Alternative to Kriging for Massive Datasets

Mathematical Geosciences - Classical geostatistical methods face serious computational challenges if they are confronted with large spatial datasets. The stochastic local interaction (SLI) approach...     

Geospatial Investigation into Groundwater Pollution and Water Quality Supported by Satellite Data: A Case Study from the Evros River (Eastern Mediterranean)

Managing water resources, in terms of both quality and quantity, in transboundary rivers is a difficult and challenging task that requires efficient cross-border cooperation and transparency. Groundwater pollution risk assessment and mapping techniques over the full catchment area are important tools that could be used as part of these water resource management efforts, to estimate pollution pressures and optimize land planning processes. The Evros river catchment is the second largest river in Eastern Europe and sustains a population of 3.6 million people in three different countries (Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece). This study provides detailed information on the main pollution sources and pressures in the Evros catchment and, for the first time, applies, assesses and evaluates a groundwater pollution risk mapping technique using satellite observations (Landsat NDVI) and an extensive dataset of field measurements covering different seasons and multiple years. We found that approximately 40 % of the Greek part of the Evros catchment is characterized as of high and very high pollution risk, while 14 % of the study area is classified as of moderate risk. Both the modeled and measured water quality status of the river showed large spatiotemporal variations consistent with the strong anthropogenic pressures in this system, especially on the northern and central segments of the catchment. The pollutants identified illustrate inputs of agrochemicals and urban wastes in the river. High correlation coefficients (R between 0.79 and 0.85) were found between estimated pollution risks and measured concentrations of those chemical parameters that are mainly attributed to anthropogenic activities rather than in situ biogeochemical processes. The pollution risk method described here could be used elsewhere as a decision support tool for mitigating the impact of hazardous human activities and improving management of groundwater resources.     

Aggregate performance in managing marine ecosystems of 53 maritime countries

Fourteen indicators of marine living resource management performance by country, reflecting both their intention to sustainably use the resource within their Exclusive Economic Zones and the effectiveness of their policies, were developed and the performances of 53 maritime countries were assessed. Four rankings of the countries, which jointly account for over 95 percent of the world's marine fisheries landings, are presented here as aggregated scores of the fourteen indicators, using different schemes for weighting the indicators, each reflective of the management preferences identified by the Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO4) future development scenarios: Market First; Policy First; Security First; and Sustainability First. The resulting rankings differed substantially between the weighting schemes for the top performing countries but less so for the countries performing poorly.     

Unidentified EGRET sources and the extragalactic gamma-ray background

The large majority of EGRET point sources remain to this day without an identified low-energy counterpart. Whatever the nature of the EGRET unidentified sources, faint unresolved objects of the same class must have a contribution to the diffuse gamma-ray background: if most unidentified objects are extragalactic, faint unresolved sources of the same class contribute to the background, as a distinct extragalactic population; on the other hand, if most unidentified sources are Galactic, their counterparts in external galaxies will contribute to the unresolved emission from these systems. Understanding this component of the gamma-ray background, along with other guaranteed contributions from known sources, is essential in any attempt to use gamma-ray observations to constrain exotic high-energy physics. Here, we follow an empirical approach to estimate whether a potential contribution of unidentified sources to the extragalactic gamma-ray background is likely to be important, and we find that it is. Additionally, we comment on how the anticipated GLAST measurement of the diffuse gamma-ray background will change, depending on the nature of the majority of these sources.     

Population studies of the unidentified EGRET sources

The third EGRET catalog contains a large number of unidentified sources. This subset of objects is expected to include known gamma-ray emitters of Galactic origin such as pulsars and supernova remnants, in addition to an extragalactic population of blazars. However, current data allows the intriguing possibility that some of these objects may represent a new class of yet undiscovered gamma-ray sources. Many theoretically motivated candidate emitters (e.g. clumps of annihilating dark matter particles) have been suggested to account for these detections. We take a new approach to determine to what extent this population is Galactic and to investigate the nature of the possible Galactic component. By assuming that galaxies similar to the Milky Way should host comparable populations of objects, we constrain the allowed Galactic abundance and distribution of various classes of gamma-ray sources using the EGRET data set. We find it is highly improbable that a large number of the unidentified sources are members of a Galactic halo population, but that a distribution of the sources entirely in the disk and bulge is plausible. Finally, we discuss the additional constraints and new insights that GLAST will provide.     

Interaction of free-floating planets with a star–planet pair

The recent discovery of free-floating planets and their theoretical interpretation as celestial bodies, either condensed independently or ejected from parent stars in tight clusters, introduced an intriguing possibility. Namely, that some exoplanets are not condensed from the protoplanetary disk of their parent star. In this novel scenario a free-floating planet interacts with an already existing planetary system, created in a tight cluster, and is captured as a new planet. In the present work we study this interaction process by integrating trajectories of planet-sized bodies, which encounter a binary system consisting of a Jupiter-sized planet revolving around a Sun-like star. To simplify the problem we assume coplanar orbits for the bound and the free-floating planet and an initially parabolic orbit for the free-floating planet. By calculating the uncertainty exponent, a quantity that measures the dependence of the final state of the system on small changes of the initial conditions, we show that the interaction process is a fractal classical scattering. The uncertainty exponent is in the range (0.2–0.3) and is a decreasing function of time. In this way we see that the statistical approach we follow to tackle the problem is justified. The possible final outcomes of this interaction are only four, namely flyby, planet exchange, capture or disruption. We give the probability of each outcome as a function of the incoming planet’s mass. We find that the probability of exchange or capture (in prograde as well as retrograde orbits and for very long times) is non-negligible, a fact that might explain the possible future observations of planetary systems with orbits that are either retrograde (see e.g. Queloz et?al. Astron. Astrophys. 417, L1, 2010) or tight and highly eccentric.     

Model evaluation of the atmospheric boundary layer and mixed-layer evolution

In the present study, an attempt is made to assess the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) depth over an urban area, as derived from different ABL schemes employed by the mesoscale model MM5. Furthermore, the relationship of the mixing height, as depicted by the measurements, to the calculated ABL depth or other features of the ABL structure, is also examined. In particular, the diurnal evolution of ABL depth is examined over the greater Athens area, employing four different ABL schemes plus a modified version, whereby urban features are considered. Measurements for two selected days, when convective conditions prevailed and a strong sea-breeze cell developed, were used for comparison. It was found that the calculated eddy viscosity profile seems to better indicate the mixing height in both cases, where either a deep convective boundary layer develops, or a more confined internal boundary layer is formed. For the urban scheme, the incorporation of both anthropogenic and storage heat release provides promising results for urban applications.