基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Holocene permafrost history and cryostratigraphy in the High‐Arctic Adventdalen Valley,central Svalbard

This paper presents the history and cryostratigraphy of the upper permafrost in the High‐Arctic Adventdalen Valley, central Svalbard. Nineteen frozen sediment cores, up to 10.7 m long, obtained at five periglacial landforms, were analysed for cryostructures, ice, carbon and solute contents, and grain‐size distribution, and were ¹⁴C‐ and OSL‐dated. Spatial variability in ice and carbon contents is closely related to the sedimentary history and mode of permafrost aggradation. In the valley bottom, saline epigenetic permafrost with pore ice down to depths of 10.7 m depth formed in deltaic sediments since the mid‐Holocene; cryopegs were encountered below 6 m. In the top 1 to 5 m, syngenetic and quasi‐syngenetic permafrost with microlenticular, lenticular, suspended and organic‐matrix cryostructures developed due to loess and alluvial sedimentation since the colder late Holocene, which resulted in the burial of organic material. At the transition between deltaic sediments and loess, massive ice bodies occurred. A pingo developed where the deltaic sediments reached the surface. On hillslopes, suspended cryostructure on solifluction sheets indicates quasi‐syngenetic permafrost aggradation; lobes, in contrast, were ice‐poor. Suspended cryostructure in eluvial deposits reflects epigenetic or quasi‐syngenetic permafrost formation on a weathered bedrock plateau. Landform‐scale spatial variations in ground ice and carbon relate to variations in slope, sedimentation rate, moisture conditions and stratigraphy. Although the study reveals close links between Holocene landscape evolution and permafrost history, our results emphasize a large uncertainty in using terrain surface indicators to infer ground‐ice contents and upscale from core to landform scale in mountainous permafrost landscapes.     

银盘恒星运动学和化学丰度与银河系结构

大样本的银盘恒星的运动学数据和元素丰度特征是研究银河系结构及演化，尤其是银盘形成和演化的2个重要探针。本文首先介绍了银河系的总体结构特征，然后较详细的综述了以上2个探针的重要性。对我国LAMOST项目在研究银河系结构方面，尤其是银盘的形成和演化方面的能力作了合理的分析。     

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。     

西宁盆地泥石流类型及其防治意见

概略地叙述了西宁地区的泥石流形成条件和形成机理,并将西宁地区泥石流划分为稀性泥石流类及泥石质泥石流种类。在此基础上提出防治泥石流灾害的意见。     

Atmospheric radiative transfer simulation for atmospheric correction of remote sensing data

IntroductionThe radiance leaving the earth-atmosphere sys-tem which can be sensed by a satellite borne ra-diometer is the sum of radiation emission fromtheearth surface and each atmospheric level that aretransmittedtothe top of the atmosphere.The radia-tion emissionfromthe earthsurface andthe radianceof each atmospheric level can be separated fromtheradiance at the top the atmospheric level a satellitemeasured.Thus,the earth surface parameters willbe retrieved from the surface radiance after a…     

The efifect of wave breaking on surface wave imaging by Synthetic Aperture Radar

The effect of ocean wave breaking as a non-Bragg mechanism on backscattering cross-section and modulation transfer functions (MTF) of radar was investigated based on Bragg resonance theory and parametric method. The result showed that the additional effect of wave breaking on backscattering cross-section is not more than 20% except for the small incident angle of VV polarized electromagnetic (e.m.) wave but is significant for HH polarized e.m. wave. Breaking waves lead to increase in the modulus of tilt modulation MTF and the larger the wind speed, the faster the increase. For large incident angle, the modulus of tilt modulation MTF with wave breaking decreases quickly with incident angle for HH polarization and approach to that without wave breaking for VV polarization. The hydrodynamic MTF increases 30%-60% when considering wave breaking and the increase is larger for HH polarization than for VV polarization.     

A new radiolarian species Clathrocorys gracilis from northern South China Sea

A new species,Clathrocorys gracilis nov. spec. of Tripocyrtidae (Radiolarians: Nassellaria) from surface water in northern South China Sea, is described in this paper. The new species has four radial beams arising from the cephalic base centre, each foot with cup-shaped structure and ramified bar in the proximal section (near cephalic base), and each wing with a large mesh in the middle, a medium mesh and a small mesh on each side respectively. Project supported by the NSFC (No. 40276044) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KSCX2-SW-101B).