水—粮食—能源—生态系统关联研究进展

传统的水—粮食—能源关联对生态系统的支持与反馈能力考虑不足,增加了协同保障区域水—粮食—能源安全的难度.综述了近年来国际上水—粮食—能源—生态系统关联框架的搭建,发现有必要从生态系统服务的角度统筹水、粮食、能源等资源部门的社会治理过程.基于生态系统类型,可分为农业、河流、森林、草地和城市生态系统的5种常见关联结构,但目前针对森林和草原生态系统的研究相对不足.量化评估中子系统边界的确定,关联预测中多主体对关联的影响,整合优化中结合资源管理和生态修复是难点所在.未来可以从把握区域特征、扩充指标体系、整合模型需求和优化国土空间4个方向入手优化水—粮食—能源—生态系统关联结构,为区域可持续发展提供整体决策依据.     

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

Hydraulic controls of grain-size distributions of bedload gravels in Oak Creek, Oregon, USA

Grain-size distributions of gravels transported as bedload in Oak Creek, Oregon, show systematic variations with changing flow discharges. At low discharges the gravel distributions are nearly symmetrical and Gaussian. As discharges increase, the distributions become more skewed and follow the ideal Rosin distribution. The patterns of variations are established by goodness-of-fit comparisons between the measured and theoretical distributions, and by Q-mode factor analysis. Two end members are obtained in the factor analysis, having (respectively) almost perfect Gaussian and Rosin distributions, and the percentages of the two end members within individual samples vary systematically with discharge. Transformation from Gaussian to Rosin distribution with increasing discharge may be explained by processes of selective entrainment of grains from a bed of mixed sizes. Samples of bed material in Oak Creek follow the Rosin distribution. At high discharges, the transported bedload approaches the grain sizes of that bed-material source and mimics its Rosin distribution. Random-selection processes must be more important to grain entrainment at lower discharges, so that the resulting Gaussian distributions of transported bedload reflect similar distributions of bed stresses exerted by the stream flow. The results from Oak Creek demonstrate that the competence of the flow is reflected in the entire distribution of transported gravel sizes. A sequence of layers of fluvial gravels, modern or ancient, might show systematic variations between coarse Rosin and finer-grained Gaussian distributions, and these could be used to infer frequencies of various discharges and to establish a relationship to the source sediment. With further study, analyses of changing bedload grain-size distributions and their transport rates will lead to a better understanding of downstream variations in grain sizes of bed sediments and how their distributions reflect the progressive development of textural maturity.     

电离层E_S层对综合射束污染的初步分析

本文考虑到干涉仪对电离层中不同尺度不规则性的滤波作用、结合密云米波综合孔径系统、提出了电离层E_(?)层是电离层不规则性影响该系统的主要根源。不规则性的尺度约在700～1000米的范围。再考虑到E_(?)层的漂移运动,提出了文中所描述的模型。用电子计算机进行了E_(?)层对综合射束污染的模拟计算,结果指出:射束主瓣的增益下降约10％,副瓣由13％增大到18％;综合射束在赤经方向出现不对称性,从而引起约0.6秒的赤经误差;射束的边缘处和两个扇形区出现了杂瓣。     

Cosmic‐ray exposure history of the Norton County enstatite achondrite

Abstract– We report measurements of cosmogenic nuclides in up to 11 bulk samples from various depths in Norton County. The activities of ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca, ²⁶Al, and ¹⁰Be were measured by accelerator mass spectrometry; the concentrations of the stable isotopes of He, Ne, Ar, and Sm were measured by electron and thermal ionization mass spectrometry, respectively. Production rates for the nuclides were modeled using the LAHET and the Monte Carlo N‐Particle codes. Assuming a one‐stage irradiation of a meteoroid with a pre‐atmospheric radius of approximately 50 cm, the model satisfactorily reproduces the depth profiles of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and ⁵³Mn (<6%) but overestimates the ⁴¹Ca concentrations by about 20%. ³He, ²¹Ne, and ²⁶Al data give a one‐stage cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) age of 115 Ma. Argon‐36 released at intermediate temperatures, ³⁶Ar_n, is attributed to production by thermal neutrons. From the values of ³⁶Ar_n, an assumed average Cl concentration of 4 ppm, and a CRE age of 115 Ma, we estimate thermal neutron fluences of 1–4 × 10¹⁶ neutrons cm^?2. We infer comparable values from ε¹⁴⁹Sm and ε¹⁵⁰Sm. Values calculated from ⁴¹Ca and a CRE age of 115 Ma, 0.2–1.4 × 10¹⁶ neutrons cm^?2, are lower by a factor of approximately 2.5, indicating that nearly half of the ¹⁴⁹Sm captures occurred earlier. One possible irradiation history places the center of proto‐Norton County at a depth of 88 cm in a large body for 140 Ma prior to its liberation as a meteoroid with a radius of 50 cm and further CRE for 100 Ma.     

A multi-scale urban atmospheric dispersion model for emergency management

To assist emergency management planning and prevention in case of hazardous chemical release into the atmosphere,especially in densely built-up regions with large populations,a multi-scale urban atmospheric dispersion model was established.Three numerical dispersion experiments,at horizontal resolutions of 10 m,50 m and 3000 m,were performed to estimate the adverse effects of toxic chemical release in densely built-up areas.The multi-scale atmospheric dispersion model is composed of the Weather Forecasting and Research （WRF） model,the Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation software package,and a Lagrangian dispersion model.Quantification of the adverse health effects of these chemical release events are given by referring to the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency＇s Acute Exposure Guideline Levels.The wind fields of the urban-scale case,with 3 km horizontal resolution,were simulated by the Beijing Rapid Update Cycle system,which were utilized by the WRF model.The sub-domain-scale cases took advantage of the computational fluid dynamics method to explicitly consider the effects of buildings.It was found that the multi-scale atmospheric dispersion model is capable of simulating the flow pattern and concentration distribution on different scales,ranging from several meters to kilometers,and can therefore be used to improve the planning of prevention and response programs.     

高墩大跨度刚构桥抗震加固有限元分析

大跨刚构桥结构桥跨较长和受力复杂。为提高抗震性能,需要对加固前后的桥梁进行抗震性能研究。以某双肢薄壁型高墩大跨度刚构桥为背景,采用ANSYS程序APDL语言,对结构进行合理的参数选取、网格划分和边界约束,结合抗震等级和桥梁规范等有关规定,研究整体结构在地震作用下的变化规律。通过沿墩高方向获取节点的方法,确定在地震作用下,各节点的最大位移从下到上逐渐增大。选取桥墩双肢相同部位各节点进行横向比较,总结得出双肢薄壁桥墩具有平分荷载和延长寿命的特点。为提高桥梁整体抗震性能,采取联结桥墩增大截面的方式进行加固,对比加固前后两模型在同一地震作用下的结构响应,得出该方法在提高结构整体刚度方面,效果显著。     

Estimating overland flow erosion capacity using unit stream power

Soil erosion caused by water flow is a complex problem. Both empirical and physically based approaches were used for the estimation of surface erosion rates. Their applications are mainly limited to experimental areas or laboratory studies. The maximum sediment concentration overland flow can carry is not considered in most of the existing surface erosion models. The lack of erosion capacity limitation may cause over estimations of sediment concentration. A correlation analysis is used in this study to determine significant factors that impact surface erosion capacity. The result shows that the unit stream power is the most dominant factor for overland flow erosion which is consistent with experimental data. A bounded regression formula is used to reflect the limits that sediment concentration cannot be less than zero nor greater than a maximum value. The coefficients used in the model are calibrated using published laboratory data. The computed results agree with laboratory data very well. A one dimensional overland flow diffusive wave model is used in conjunction with the developed soil erosion equation to simulate field experimental results. This study concludes that the non-linear regression method using unit stream power as the dominant factor performs well for estimating overland flow erosion capacity.     

云滴电谱仪

本文介绍一种结构简单的云滴电谱仪的设计、制作和检验。曾用这仪器试测了自来水喷碎时所成雾滴的电谱,对测量结果作了初步分析。