Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.     

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕     

交通流量分析与实时最优控制

通过将车流量的增大或减小转化为路长权重的变化。将交通流量的动态问题转化为静态问题，用解决最短路问题的Dijkstra方法，给出交通流量实时最优控制的可行性模型及其有效算法。     

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果     

南海北缘北东东向构造活动性研究

从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说，这是一种新的学术思想。     

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。     

柴达木盆地北缘侏罗系不同沉积环境烃源岩生物标志物特征及其应用

柴达木盆地北缘地区侏罗系(中下侏罗统)的优质烃源岩主要发育于湖相与三角洲相环境。研究了不同时代、不同沉积环境中烃源岩的生物标志物组成特征,结果发现,有3类化合物的分布与组成差异显著,包括三环萜烷(C19、C20、C21)的分布型式、重排藿烷的丰度以及规则甾烷的相对组成。其中,不同时代的差异主要体现在规则甾烷组成上;而不同沉积环境的差异主要体现为三环萜烷(C19、C20、C21)的分布型式及重排藿烷的丰度。分析认为,这些差异与烃源岩的沉积环境及其生源组成有密切关系。据此,初步将这些参数应用于两方面研究,一是为划分地层沉积环境提供“生物标志物相标志”,二是研究油源对比,取得良好效果。因此,本文研究结果具有重要实用价值与参考意义。     

Soil n-alkane δD vs. altitude gradients along Mount Gongga, China

The altitude effect on the isotopic composition of precipitation and its application to paleoelevation reconstruction using authigenic or pedogenic minerals have been intensively studied. However, there are still no studies on variations in biomarker δD along altitude transects to investigate its potential as a paleoelevation indicator, although it has been observed that δD of higher plant lipid may record changes in precipitation δD (δD_p). Here, we present δD values of higher plant-derived C₂₇, C₂₉, and C₃₁n-alkanes from surface soil along the eastern slope of Mount Gongga, China with great changes in physical variables and vegetation over a range from 1000 to 4000 m above sea level. The weighted-mean δD values of these n-alkanes (δD_wax) show significant linear correlations with predicted δD_p values (R² = 0.76) with an apparent isotopic enrichment (ε_wax-p) of −137 ± 9‰, indicating that soil δD_wax values track overall δD_p variation along the entire altitudinal transect. Leaf δD_wax is also highly correlated with mountain altitude by a significant quadratic relationship (R² = 0.80). Evapotranspiration is found declining with altitude, potentially lowering δD_wax values at higher elevations. However, this evapotranspiration effect is believed to be largely compensated by the opposing effect of vegetation changes, resulting in less varied ε_wax-p values over the slope transect. This study therefore confirms the potential of using leaf δD_wax to infer paleoelevations, and more generally, to infer the δD of precipitation.