Quantitative vulnerability estimation for scenario-based landslide hazards

Within the engineering profession and natural sciences, vulnerability is widely accepted to be defined as the degree of loss (or damage) to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a threat. The value of vulnerability is expressed nondimensionally between 0 and 1. It is a fundamental component in the evaluation of landslide risk, and its accurate estimation is essential in making a reasonable prediction of the landslide consequences. Obviously, vulnerability to landslides depends not only on the characteristics of the element(s) at risk but also on the landslide intensity. This paper summarizes previous research on vulnerability to landslides and proposes a new quantitative model for vulnerability of structures and persons based on landslide intensity and resistance of exposed elements. In addition, an approximate function is suggested for estimating the vulnerability of persons in structures. Different methods for estimating the vulnerability of various elements to slow or rapid landslides are discussed. Finally, the application of the new model is illustrated through an example.     

A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment

The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented.     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

Analysis of Unit Supporting Time and Support Installation Time for Open TBMs

Estimation of advance rate and utilization of tunnel boring machines (TBM) are some of the important steps in planning a TBM tunneling project. Estimation of the utilization factor depends on realistic analysis of downtime components. Among the different parameters influencing TBM downtime, tunnel support is the most influential factor, which can take up to 50% of the total excavation time in some cases. Although, there are some rock mass classification systems specifically developed to link ground conditions with the type and amount of support installed in TBM tunneling, the related downtime for support installation has not been studied in detail. Unit supporting time (UST) is the time required for the installation of ground support per unit length of tunnel. Support installation time (SIT) is the time required for installation of a single ground support element. In this paper, approximate ranges of UST and SIT are discussed and analyzed on the basis of recorded ground SIT from a number of TBM tunneling projects. The primary goal of this paper is to link UST with rock mass classifications that have been specifically developed to assess ground support requirements for different tunnel sections using open-type TBM. An accurate estimate of UST and SIT allows for realistic determination of the related downtime and TBM utilization rate.     

The Bam Earthquake of 26 December 2003

The devastating earthquake of 26 December 2003 claimed more than 26,000 lives in the city of Bam and surrounding towns and villages in Southeast Iran, and left the majority of the Bam population homeless. The reason for this tragedy was an unfortunate combination of geological, social and human circumstances. The causative fault practically traversed the city of Bam and the earthquake occurred at a shallow depth. The residential buildings were completely inappropriate for a seismic region, being extremely vulnerable to earthquake shaking, and the earthquake occurred early in the morning when most people were still sleeping. The damage pattern was nearly symmetric about a line 3 km to the west of the surface expression of the Bam fault, and the damage attenuated rapidly with distance from this line. The industrial facilities and the lifelines performed relatively well and experienced slight to moderate damage, but this might have been due to their distance from the earthquake epicentre. However, many of the qanat (traditional subterranean irrigation channels) chains that served the twin cities of Bam and Baravat collapsed. Emergency facilities (hospitals, police and fire stations), schools and the university were destroyed and/or heavily damaged during the earthquake. The geotechnical effects of the earthquake were not significant. There was little evidence that site response effects played a major role in the damage pattern in the city. There were no reports of liquefaction and only minor sliding activity took place during the event. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings were obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. The highest peak ground acceleration (nearly 1g) was recorded for the vertical component of the motion. However, the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion in N–S direction) clearly had the largest energy flux, as well as the largest maximum velocity and displacement.     

Natural hazards in Nordic Countries

Compared to many areas of the world, the human losses caused by natural hazards are smaller in Nordic countries. This is mainly due to the low population density in the exposed areas. However, the economic losses are significant and the geohazards picture varies among the countries. The predominant natural hazards in Nordic countries are floods, landslides, and, with the exception of Denmark, snow avalanche. Volcanoes and earthquakes are major geohazards in Iceland, and parts of Norway are susceptible to seismic activity. Slidetriggered tsunamis also represent a threat to parts of the coastal areas of Nordic countries and Greenland.     

Apodized Lyot coronagraph for SPHERE/VLT: II. Laboratory tests and performance

SPHERE (which stands for Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet REsearch) is a second-generation Very Large Telescope (VLT) instrument dedicated to high-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets whose first-light is scheduled for 2011. Within this complex instrument one of the central components is the apodized Lyot coronagraph (ALC). The principal aim of this paper is to report the first laboratory experiment of the ALC designed for the SPHERE instrument. The performance and sensitivity of the optical configuration was first numerically studied with an end-to-end approach (see the results in paper I subtitled ??Detailed numerical study??). Made confident by the results, we then tested a prototype on an infrared coronagraphic bench. We measured the transmission profiles of the apodizer prototype and the coronagraphic performance of the apodized Lyot coronagraph in Y, J, and H bands. The coronagraph sensitivity to lateral and longitudinal misalignments of its three main components (apodizer, coronagraphic mask and Lyot stop) was finally studied in H band. We can conclude that the prototype meets the SPHERE technical requirements for coronagraphy.     

Discussion of ‘Seismic behavior of a single‐story asymmetric‐plan buildings under uniaxial excitation’ by A. Lucchini,G. Monti and S. Kunnath

This discussion examines the conclusion reached in the paper that in a single‐story asymmetric‐plan building the maximum displacement demand in the different resisting elements is reached for the same deformation configuration of the system and that the resultant of the seismic forces producing such demand is located at the center of resistance. It is shown that this conclusion is valid only for the particular model studied and cannot be generalized. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of performance data from evaporite mines to salt nuclear waste repository design

Summary Data on the performance of operating mines in rock salt and potash from United States and British sources is reviewed. A design validation scheme for nuclear waste repositories is proposed, based on back analysis of the response of operating evaporite mines.     

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.