The effect of gravity on the stability of a line-tied coronal magnetohydrostatic equilibrium

Abstract

The magnetohydrodynamic stability of a class of magnetohydrostatic equilibria is investigated. The effect of gravity is included as well as the stabilising influence of the dense photospheric line-tying.

Although the two-dimensional equilibria exhibit a catastrophe point, when the ratio of plasma pressure to magnetic pressure exceeds a critical value, arcade structures, with both footpoints connected to the photosphere, become unstable to three-dimensional disturbances before the catastrophe point is reached.

Numerical results for field lines that are open into the solar corona suggest that they are completely stable. Although there is no definite proof of stability, this would allow the point of non-equilibrium to be reached.     

Statistically downscaled probabilistic multi‐model ensemble projections of precipitation change in a watershed

This paper presents the development of a probabilistic multi‐model ensemble of statistically downscaled future projections of precipitation of a watershed in New Zealand. Climate change research based on the point estimates of a single model is considered less reliable for decision making, and multiple realizations of a single model or outputs from multiple models are often preferred for such purposes. Similarly, a probabilistic approach is preferable over deterministic point estimates. In the area of statistical downscaling, no single technique is considered a universal solution. This is due to the fact that each of these techniques has some weaknesses, owing to its basic working principles. Moreover, watershed scale precipitation downscaling is quite challenging and is more prone to uncertainty issues than downscaling of other climatological variables. So, multi‐model statistical downscaling studies based on a probabilistic approach are required. In the current paper, results from the three well‐reputed statistical downscaling methods are used to develop a Bayesian weighted multi‐model ensemble. The three members of the downscaling ensemble of this study belong to the following three broad categories of statistical downscaling methods: (1) multiple linear regression, (2) multiple non‐linear regression, and (3) stochastic weather generator. The results obtained in this study show that the new strategy adopted here is promising because of many advantages it offers, e.g. it combines the outputs of multiple statistical downscaling methods, provides probabilistic downscaled climate change projections and enables the quantification of uncertainty in these projections. This will encourage any future attempts for combining the results of multiple statistical downscaling methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Limits to comprehensive planning

This paper postulates that larger more complicated organisms cannot be comprehended completely. Some of their important internal characteristics and dynamics are indeterminate. Certain external conditions and occurrences vitally affecting them cannot be predicted or treated as random events. The internal functioning of complex organisms and their interaction with the external environment cannot therefore be formulated analytically with the completeness, precision, and reliability required for truly comprehensive planning and decision-making. Limitations of rational and collective action by people are also involved in what comprehensive planning can and cannot accomplish, and how it is best conducted.     

Effect of reproductive state and sex on movement and food consumption of western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) in a tank environment

The catchability of western rock lobsters (Panulirus cygnus) during the spawning season (October and November) may be affected by their reproductive state. In this study, movement and food consumption of males and females of different reproductive states held in laboratory tanks were measured as proxies for catchability. Density of lobsters was found to influence both movement and food consumption. Solitary animals and, to a lesser extent, two lobsters per tank, were more sedentary and consumed significantly less food than animals at a density of three or four specimens per tank. Tests using three animals per tank confirmed that mature, unmated, and ovigerous females carrying early stage eggs moved more frequently away from their shelters than males or females carrying late stage eggs (P < 0.0001, d.f. = 3). Further, unmated females and females with early stage eggs recorded significantly higher food consumption (P < 0.0061, d.f. = 3) compared with males or females carrying late stage eggs. The greater time spent away from shelter and also food consumption make unmated females and females with early stage eggs likely to be more catchable than males or females with late stage eggs. As catchability is commonly used to obtain population estimates from survey data, these results have implications for surveys which use catch rates of breeding animals as indicators of egg production.     

Movement patterns of individual migrating western rock lobster,Panulirus cygnus,in Western Australia

Abstract

Migrating and pre‐migrating western rock lobster Panulirus cygnus were tagged with datastorage tags that recorded temperature and pressure, which was converted to depth (Pressure (kPa) — surface pressure (kPa)/10)) at Dongara and Jurien Bay in Western Australia between December 2005 and December 2007. All lobsters were fitted with tag flotation devices, and returns were made by either commercial fishers or beachcombers who located detached tags. A total of 135 lobsters were released with “backpack” flotation tags, but only 84 (62.2%) of the backpacks carried data‐storage tags. Depths of release ranged from 5 to 113 m. Of the tagged lobsters released, commercial fishers recaptured 52 (38.5%), whereas 11 tags (8.1%) were found by beachcombers. At least 33%, and possibly up to 63%, of animals identified by their pale coloration as pre‐migrating individuals, failed to migrate. Those that did migrate (n = 11) were at liberty from 1 to 94 days and showed generally similar movement patterns in that they migrated only at night from darkness (after 2000 h) until after moonrise. However, their movement patterns were less constrained by the rising of the moon in deep water. Only 27% migrated nightly, compared with 73% that skipped migrating on one or more nights, to restart some days later. This latter proportion would likely have been considerably greater, but some migrating animals were only at large for short periods before recapture, and therefore had little time to show any variation to the nocturnal migration pattern. Individual speeds of migration during periods of activity were estimated for nine lobsters as 0.20 to 0.68 km h^?1, with a mean speed of 0.44 km h^?1, or 7.4 m min^?1. Improved knowledge of daily movement patterns resulting from this study provides a potentially important input into technological improvements in bait and pot design.     

Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed

Future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are usually used for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the existing GCMs have only limited ability to simulate the complex and local climate features, such as precipitation. Furthermore, the outputs provided by GCMs are too coarse to be useful in hydrologic impact assessment models, as these models require information at much finer scales. Therefore, downscaling of GCM outputs is usually employed to provide fine-resolution information required for impact models. Among the downscaling techniques based on statistical principles, multiple regression and weather generator are considered to be more popular, as they are computationally less demanding than the other downscaling techniques. In the present study, the performances of a multiple regression model (called SDSM) and a weather generator (called LARS-WG) are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the frequency of extreme precipitation events of current climate and downscaling of future extreme events. Areal average daily precipitation data of the Clutha watershed located in South Island, New Zealand, are used as baseline data in the analysis. Precipitation frequency analysis is performed by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the observed, the SDSM simulated/downscaled, and the LARS-WG simulated/downscaled annual maximum (AM) series. The computations are performed for five return periods: 10-, 20-, 40-, 50- and 100-year. The present results illustrate that both models have similar and good ability to simulate the extreme precipitation events and, thus, can be adopted with confidence for climate change impact studies of this nature.     

An assessment of an oil spill in Gladstone, Australia - impacts on intertidal areas at one month post-spill

In January 2006, 25 tonnes of heavy fuel oil spilled into the Port of Gladstone in Queensland, Australia, from the breached hull of a bulk carrier ship. Over the following days, approximately 18 tonnes of the oil was recovered, however a certain amount of oil was deposited in the intertidal areas of Port Curtis leaving a highly visible, viscous residue. The objectives of this research were to assess the immediate impacts on the intertidal habitat and to gain baseline information for future comparative assessments. Sediment PAH and metal concentrations, mangrove communities and intertidal macroinvertebrates were assessed within one month post-spill at oil-impacted sites; adjacent sites which were not visibly impacted; and reference sites which were located outside the recorded distribution of the oil spill. Highest PAH concentrations were found at the impacted sites, with concentrations of some PAHs exceeding Australian and New Zealand Sediment Quality Guidelines (ANZECC/ARMCANZ, 2000). These sites contained very few or no crab holes in the high intertidal area, indicating a low crab density in comparison to reference sites. Little immediate impact was evident on the mangrove and macrobenthic communities, however future surveys may show evidence of longer-term impacts on these communities.     

The ideal magnetohydrodynamic stability of a line-tied coronal magnetohydrostatic equilibrium

An energy method is used to determine a condition for local instability of field lines in magnetohydrostatic equilibrium which are rooted in the photosphere. The particular equilibrium studied is isothermal and two-dimensional and may model a coronal arcade of loops where variations along the axis of the arcade are weak enough to be ignorable. If line tying conditions are modelled by perturbations that vanish on the photosphere, then, when the field is unsheared, the condition for stability is necessary and sufficient. However, when the axial field component is non-zero, so that the field is sheared, the stability condition is only sufficient.It is found that when < 0.34 the equilibrium is stable. When = 0.34 a magnetic neutral line appears at the photosphere and it is marginally stable. When > 0.34 a magnetic island is present and all the field lines inside the island are unstable as well as some beyond it. As increases, the size of the island and the extent of unstable field lines increase. The effect of the instability is likely to be to create small-scale filamentation in the solar corona and to enhance the global transport coefficients.