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基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率. 相似文献
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季风低频振荡与厄尔尼诺的发生发展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,应用小波分析方法研究讨论了西太平洋、南海、阿拉伯海等近赤道季风区850hPa纬向风场低频振荡与ElNino发生发展的相关特征。研究发现,在El Nino发生前期,30-50d低频振荡会出现显著的增强,El Nino发生后,30-50d低频振荡明显减小,120-150d准定常波动加强。分析表明,近赤道季风区显著低频振荡是El Nino发生发展的一个重要前兆,低频振荡能量向甚低频段的转移和输送可能是El Nino发生的重要机理。 相似文献
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Based on the daily reanalysis data of NCEP / NCAR and by using the method of phase space
reconstruction, the point conditional probability density of the subtropical high ridge index are determined
and then used, together with their power spectra, to seek the correlation between them and individual
monsoon-affecting factors and their power spectra. Through diagnosis, six indexes are discovered that have
the most important effects on the subtropical high index. The results of the diagnosis indicate that the
technique can identify the factors which are dynamically correlated. It can offer the basis in determining
and choosing dynamic conceptual factors. 相似文献
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基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算出的西太平洋副高活动的三种特征指数,利用相空间重构方法对副高活动的三种特征指数的混沌特性和分数维进行了计算。计算结果表明,副高的短期活动存在混沌吸引子,副高脊线指数和面积指数动力系统的独立变量数目的上、下限分别为3和6,分析结果为副高动力系统的重构研究奠定了基础。 相似文献
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~~THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THE SEASONAL MODALITY AND WEST EXTENDING OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH@张韧$Department of Marine Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Sciences & Technology, Nanjing 211101 China
@何金海$Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044 China
@董兆俊$Department of Marine Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology, PLA Uni… 相似文献
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