基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

A plume tectonics model for the Tharsis province, Mars

Morphological and structural data from the whole Tharsis province suggest that a number of shallow grabens radially oriented about the Tharsis bulge on Mars are underlain by dykes, which define giant radiating swarms similar to, e.g. the Mackenzie dyke swarm of the Canadian shield. Mechanisms for graben formation are proposed, and the depth, width, and height of the associated dykes are estimated. Structural mapping leads to define successive stages of dyke emplacement, and provide stress-trajectory maps that indicate a steady source of the regional stress during the whole history of the Tharsis province. A new tectonic model of Tharsis is presented, based on an analogy with dyke swarms on the Earth that form inside hot spots. This model successfully matches the following features: (1) the geometry of the South Tharsis Ridge Belt, which may have been a consequence of the compressional stress field at the boundary between the uplifted and non-uplifted areas in the upper part of the lithosphere at the onset of hot spot activity; (2) extensive lava flooding, interpreted as a consequence of the high thermal anomaly at the onset of plume (hot spot) activity; (3) wrinkle ridge geometry in the Tharsis hemisphere, the formation of which is interpreted as a consequence of buoyant subsidence of the brittle crust in response to the lava load; (4) Valles Marineris limited stretching by preliminary passive rifting, and uplift, viewed as a necessary consequence of adiabatic mantle decompression induced by stretching. The geometrical analysis of dyke swarms suggests the existence of a large, Tharsis-independent extensional state of stress during all the period of tectonic activity, in which the minimum compressive stress is roughly N---S oriented. Although magmatism must have loaded the lithosphere significantly after the plume activity ceased and be responsible for additional surface deformations, there is no requirement for further loading stress to explain surficial features. Comparison with succession of magmatic and tectonic events related to hot spots on the Earth suggests that the total time required to produce all the surface deformation observed in the Tharsis province over the last 3.8 Ga does probably not exceed 10 or 15 Ma.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

Background concentrations of elements in surface soils and their changes as affected by agriculture use in the desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe River Basin,North-west China

The concentrations of twenty four chemical elements in the surface layer of natural desert soils and the cultivated farmland soils were measured at a desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe river basin, north-west China. Background values were estimated for (a) major elements (Si 335.3 g kg^− 1, Al 49.4 g kg^− 1, Fe 19.1 g kg^− 1, Ca 29.4 g kg^− 1, Mg 8.9 g kg^− 1, K 20.1 g kg^− 1, Na 17.5 g kg^− 1 and P 0.338 g kg^− 1), (b) heavy metals and non-metals (Cr 55.8 mg kg^− 1, Mn 404.8 mg kg^− 1, Ni 17.7 mg kg^− 1, Cu 5.1 mg kg^− 1, Zn 33.7 mg kg^− 1, Pb 15.5 mg kg^− 1 and As 5.2 mg kg^− 1) and (c) other trace elements (Ti 2.0 mg kg^− 1, V 55.3 mg kg^− 1, Co 5.7 mg kg^− 1, Rb 82.4 mg kg^− 1, Sr 232.9 mg kg^− 1, Y 14.7 mg kg^− 1, Zr 194.9 mg kg^− 1, Nb 7.8 mg kg^− 1 and Ba 720.6 mg kg^− 1). After natural desert soil was cultivated for agricultural use, significant changes in element concentrations occurred under tillage, irrigation and fertilisation management. Compared to natural soil, the for the levels of Si, K, Na, Sr, Zr and Ba decreased, and no changes were observed for Rb, while the values of the other 17 elements increase in agricultural soil from 1.2 to 3.5 times. However, their absolute concentrations are still low, suggesting that the arable soil in this region remains comparatively a clean soil. The increased silt, clay and organic carbon content, under long-term irrigation, enriched the fine-grained materials, and application of fertilisers and manure contributed to the accumulation of most elements in arable soil. The accumulation of elements in agricultural soil increased with increasing cultivation years and extent of soil development.     

两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料, 通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化, 在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算, 并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制. 研究结果表明: 在黑河流域, 气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量, 决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征, 以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.     

青藏高原季节性冻土的时空分布特征

利用青藏高原72个气象台站的冬季逐日冻结深度资料, 采用动力学Q指数和小波分析方法, 研究了青藏高原季节性冻土的时空变化特征. 结果发现: 青藏高原季节性冻土各站点相互间的动力学Q指数在高原大部分地区都比较小, 仅在高原南部部分站点值较大, 表明在高原上总体来说季节性冻土的动力学结构是一致的. 各站季节性冻土1980年代前后的Q指数在高原主体也都比较小, 只是在高原东南部和柴达木盆地的部分地区Q指数较大, 表明在高原大部分地区季节性冻土变化的动力学结构特征没有发生突变. 青藏高原季节性冻土总体上呈现下降趋势, 在20世纪80年代中期有一次均值突变, 突变以前的冬季平均冻结深度在93 cm左右, 突变以后的冬季平均冻结深度下降了10 cm左右. 高原季节性冻土冬季平均深度有准4 a的周期变化.     

中祁连东段什川杂岩基的岩石化学特征及年代学研究

祁连造山带被托菜南山-了高山构造带及宗务隆山-贵得构造带分为北祁连、中祁连及南祁连构造带。什川岩基位于中祁连构造带东部,由闪长岩、斜长花岗岩、二长花岗岩组成;对二长花岗岩进行U-Pb单颗粒锆石微区LA-ICP-MS同位素测定,获得444.6Ma及414.3Ma两组加权平均年龄,前者代表岩石的形成年龄,后者代表构造热事件年龄。二长花岗岩主量元素W(SiO_2)=68.66%～80.77%,w(K_2O)/w(Na_2O)>1和A/CNK介于0.95～1.21间,总体为钾质钙碱性过铝质花岗岩。岩石富集LILE元素(K、Th、Rb、Ba等),亏损HFSE元素(Ta、Nb、Y等);稀土元素总量较高(∑REE多介于109.05×10~(-6)～322.66×10~(-6)),轻重稀土强烈分馏(∑LREE/∑HREE介于7.92～31.68),稀土元素分配模式为轻稀土富集型,具中等-强Eu负异常(δEu=0.26～0.58)。岩石矿物组合及岩石地球化学特征共同表明,什川岩基为中上地壳泥砂质岩石部分熔融而成,形成温度较低,为加厚地壳拆沉熔融成因。这为祁连造山带构造演化及其深部动力学机制研究提供了新的资料。     

Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展

综述了多变量水文分析计算方法及存在的问题.系统地介绍了Copula函数的基本理论与方法,分析探讨Copula函数在多变量水文计算领域的适用性及优越性.总结了Copula函数应用的关键技术,包括参数估计、拟合检验及类型选择等,并展望了Copula函数的研究应用前景.