基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

Photometric Study of the W Uma-Type Eclipsing Binary System GSC 4832.400

We present a photometric analysis of the eclipsing binary systemGSC4832.400 based on 732 photometric observations obtained on sixteen clear nights during 1999–2000 in the V-Johnson and yb-Strömgren filters. The observed times of the minima yielded a linear ephemeris showing that the system has a constant period of 0.313150 ± 0.000002days. The light curve corresponds to a circular orbit for the system and clearly shows that GSC4832.400 has the defining characteristics of a W UMa-type eclipsing binary. It also shows a small O'Connell effect, which could be due to the presence of a hot spot in the primary star. A preliminary photometric solution based on the assumption of an over contact systemsatis factorily reproduced the observed light curve.     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can Brans-Dicke universes in five dimensions be interpreted as 4-dimensional general relativity cosmologies?

The 5-dimensional Jordan-Brans-Dicke cosmologies in vacuum are found for the Bianchi type I metric, their relation with general relativity cosmologies is studied. Two solutions are possible, both produce effective pressure and energy density in the 4-dimensional G.R.-universes. One is a power-law relation, with two cases, the first one is forp _eff=_eff and the other forp _eff=_eff(– 1 < < 1) has a behaviour as the open flat universe. The second solution is an exponential only valid forp _eff=–_eff. In all cases the three-space expansion reaches infinity ast and the fifth dimension can be made to decrease approaching zero. The scalar field can increase or decrease with time.     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

Comparative analyses of East Texas forest cover maps generated from Landsat and AVHRR data

Comparing satellite data derived map products are affected by differences in data characteristics, image acquisition dates, processing techniques, and classification schemes used for assigning pixels to a thematic class. By comparing two forest maps generated from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images acquired on the same day, and processed using identical classification scheme and methods these differences were minimized. The ETM+ derived map had higher classification accuracy values and more precise area estimates than the AVHRR derived map. In the ETM+ derived map, 87 of the 599 verification data were misclassified, whereas in the AVHRR derived map, 155 of the 469 verification data were misclassified. Detailed error analyses by land cover class revealed that a land use based definition of forest accounted for 74% (64 out of 87) and 57% (89 out of 155) of the classification errors in ETM+ and AVHRR derived maps, respectively.     

两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料, 通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化, 在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算, 并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制. 研究结果表明: 在黑河流域, 气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量, 决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征, 以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.