Climate Variability and Urbanization in Athens

Summary  The effects of urbanization on the Athens National Observatory (NOA) long records are investigated, in the present study, examining the mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperature for the period 1925–1996, for NOA and the corresponding time series for Aliartos (ALI), a rural station located 70 km NW of Athens. The existing small urbanization effect in NOA before the second world war period increased after the war and up to about 1990, when the effect became stationary. The urbanization effect in NOA referred mainly to maximum temperature and to the warmer seasons of the year. It is attributed to the extensive building of Athens after the war around NOA site and up to the sea which increases the temperature of the sea breeze. The effect is also attributed to the rapid increase of the population and the number of motor vehicles mainly after 1970. Moreover the decreasing trend of precipitation during the period 1970–1990 may have contributed to the increase of maximum air temperature. The urbanization effect on maximum temperatures of NOA amounts about 2 °C in spring, summer and less in fall, while no urbanization effect is clear in winter. Received March 25, 1998 Revised October 7, 1998     

Authigenic carbonate mineral formation in the Pagassitikos palaeolake during the latest Pleistocene, central Greece

The Pagassitikos Gulf in Greece is a semi-enclosed bay with a maximum depth of 102 m. According to the present-day bathymetric configuration and the sea level during the latest Pleistocene, the gulf would have been isolated from the open sea, forming a palaeolake since ~32 cal. ka b.p. Sediment core B-4 was recovered from the deepest sector of the gulf and revealed evidence of a totally different depositional environment in the lowest part of the core: this contained light grey-coloured sediments, contrasting strongly with overlying olive grey muds. Multi-proxy analyses showed the predominance of carbonate minerals (aragonite, dolomite and calcite) and gypsum in the lowest part of the core. Carbonate mineral deposition can be attributed to autochthonous precipitation that took place in a saline palaeolake with high evaporation rates during the last glacial–early deglacial period; the lowest core sample to be AMS ¹⁴C dated provided an age of 19.53 cal. ka b.p. The palaeolake was presumably reconnected to the open sea at ~13.2 cal. ka b.p. during the last sea-level rise, marking the commencement of marine sedimentation characterised by the predominance of terrigenous aluminosilicates and fairly constant depositional conditions lasting up to the present day.     

Assessment of sediment transport approaches for sand-bed rivers by means of machine learning

Abstract

The quantification of the sediment carrying capacity of a river is a difficult task that has received much attention. For sand-bed rivers especially, several sediment transport functions have appeared in the literature based on various concepts and approaches; however, since they present a significant discrepancy in their results, none of them has become universally accepted. This paper employs three machine learning techniques, namely artificial neural networks, symbolic regression based on genetic programming and an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for the derivation of sediment transport formulae for sand-bed rivers from field and laboratory flume data. For the determination of the input parameters, some of the most prominent fundamental approaches that govern the phenomenon, such as shear stress, stream power and unit stream power, are utilized and a comparison of their efficacy is provided. The results obtained from the machine learning techniques are superior to those of the commonly-used sediment transport formulae and it is shown that each of the input combinations tested has its own merit, as they produce similarly good results with respect to the data-driven technique employed.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Factors Affecting Differential Settlements of Framed Structures

The estimation of settlements, differential settlements and relative rotations on critical positions of the foundation is indispensable when carrying out analyses of both ultimate and serviceability limit states. The use of finite element method is recommended in cases where soil?Cstructure interaction is expected to be significant. The scope of this paper is a contribution to the investigation of general trends in the effects of main parameters on the interaction. A typical five-span frame building with varying rigidity was examined by using finite element numerical method under 2-D conditions. Soil below the foundation was simulated as linearly elastic or elastoplastic medium. The effects of superstructure and foundation rigidity are closely related to the effect of soil deformability thereby analyses were performed in terms of relative rigidity factors. The effects of specific foundation types, namely isolated footings, flexible and rigid mat, were investigated in detail. The conclusions were focused on the development of normalized differential settlements, on the influence of the relative rigidity factor as well as on the determination of those cases where the interaction approach is necessary to be used for the analysis.     

Present climate trend analysis of the Etesian winds in the Aegean Sea

Wildfires are a common experience in Alaska where, on average, 3,775?km² burn annually. More than 90% of the area consumed occurs in Interior Alaska, where the summers are relatively warm and dry, and the vegetation consists predominantly of spruce, birch, and cottonwood. Summers with above normal temperatures generate an increased amount of convection, resulting in more thunderstorm development and an amplified number of lightning strikes. The resulting dry conditions facilitate the spread of wildfires started by the lightning. Working with a 55-year dataset of wildfires for Alaska, an increase in the annual area burned was observed. Due to climate change, the last three decades have shown to be warmer than the previous decades. Hence, in the first 28?years of the data, two fires were observed with an area burned greater than 10,000?km², while there were four in the last 27?years. Correlations between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Canadian Drought Code, against both the number of wildfires and the area burned, gave relatively low but in some cases significant correlation values. Special emphasis is given to the fire season of 2004, in which a record of 27,200?km² burned. These widespread fires were due in large part to the unusual weather situation. Owing to the anticyclonic conditions of the summer of 2004, the composite anomaly of the 500?mb geopotential height showed above normal values. The dominance of a ridge pattern during summer resulted in generally clear skies, high temperatures, and below normal precipitation. Surface observations confirmed this; the summer of 2004 was the warmest and third driest for Interior Alaska in a century of climate observations. The fires lasted throughout the summer and only the snowfalls in September terminated them (at least one regenerated in spring 2005). Smoke from the forest fires affected the air quality. This could be demonstrated by measurements of visibility, fine particle matter, transmissivity of the atmosphere, and CO concentration.     

Behaviour of deep immersed tunnel under combined normal fault rupture deformation and subsequent seismic shaking

Immersed tunnels are particularly sensitive to tensile and compressive deformations such as those imposed by a normal seismogenic fault rupturing underneath, and those generated by the dynamic response due to seismic waves. The paper investigates the response of a future 70 m deep immersed tunnel to the consecutive action of a major normal fault rupturing in an earthquake occurring in the basement rock underneath the tunnel, and a subsequent strong excitation from a different large-magnitude seismic event that may occur years later. Non-linear finite elements model the quasi-static fault rupture propagation through the thick soil deposit overlying the bedrock and the ensuing interaction of the rupture with the immersed tunnel. It is shown that despite imposed bedrock offset of 2 m, net tension or excessive compression between tunnel segments could be avoided with a suitable design of the joint gaskets. Then, the already deformed (“injured”) structure is subjected to strong asynchronous seismic shaking. The thick-walled tunnel is modelled as a 3-D massive flexural beam connected to the soil through properly-calibrated nonlinear interaction springs and dashpots, the supports of which are subjected to the free-field acceleration time histories. The latter, obtained with 1-D wave propagation analysis, are then modified to account for wave passage effects. The joints between tunnel segments are modeled with special non-linear hyper-elastic elements, properly accounting for their 7-bar longitudinal hydrostatic pre-stressing. Sliding is captured with special gap elements. The effect of segment length and joint properties is explored parametrically. A fascinating conclusion emerges in all analysed cases for the joints between segments that were differentially deformed after the quasi-static fault rupture: upon subsequent very strong seismic shaking, overstressed joints de-compress and understressed joints re-compress—a “healing” process that leads to a more uniform deformation profile along the tunnel. This is particularly beneficial for the precariously de-compressed joint gaskets. Hence, the safety of the immersed tunnel improves with “subsequent” strong seismic shaking!     

Exploring the impact of diagenesis on (isotope) geochemical and microstructural alteration features in biogenic aragonite

For the Quaternary and Neogene, aragonitic biogenic and abiogenic carbonates are frequently exploited as archives of their environment. Conversely, pre‐Neogene aragonite is often diagenetically altered and calcite archives are studied instead. Nevertheless, the exact sequence of diagenetic processes and products is difficult to disclose from naturally altered material. Here, experiments were performed to understand biogenic aragonite alteration processes and products. Shell subsamples of the bivalve Arctica islandica were exposed to hydrothermal alteration. Thermal boundary conditions were set at 100°C, 175°C and 200°C. These comparably high temperatures were chosen to shorten experimental durations. Subsamples were exposed to different ¹⁸O‐depleted fluids for durations between two and twenty weeks. Alteration was documented using X‐ray diffraction, cathodoluminescence, fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy, as well as conventional and clumped isotope analyses. Experiments performed at 100°C show redistribution and darkening of organic matter, but lack evidence for diagenetic alteration, except in Δ₄₇ which show the effects of annealing processes. At 175°C, valves undergo significant aragonite to calcite transformation and neomorphism. The δ¹⁸O signature supports transformation via dissolution and reprecipitation, but isotopic exchange is limited by fluid migration through the subsamples. Individual growth increments in these subsamples exhibit bright orange luminescence. At 200°C, valves are fully transformed to calcite and exhibit purple‐blue luminescence with orange bands. The δ¹⁸O and Δ₄₇ signatures reveal exchange with the aqueous fluid, whereas δ¹³C remains unaltered in all experiments, indicating a carbonate‐buffered system. Clumped isotope temperatures in high‐temperature experiments show compositions in broad agreement with the measured temperature. Experimentally induced alteration patterns are comparable with individual features present in Pleistocene shells. This study represents a significant step towards sequential analysis of diagenetic features in biogenic aragonites and sheds light on reaction times and threshold limits. The limitations of a study restricted to a single test organism are acknowledged and call for refined follow‐up experiments.     

Human-biometeorological assessment of heat waves in Athens

The goal of this study is the analysis of heat waves and their impact on humans, using human biometeorological indices, which are based on the energy balance of the human body. The implications for humans are not only described through the intensity of the heat waves, but also through their duration over consecutive days. Both intensity and duration were analyzed for the Greater Athens Area during the period 1955 to 2001. The analysis was carried out using the daily physiologically equivalent temperature and the daily minimum air temperature. Based on these two parameters, the results showed an increase in the average duration of heat waves. Furthermore, the use of the Gaussian filter revealed the intra-annual variation of heat stress conditions and their relevance to humans. The results could be used for the management of the negative consequences of heat waves in cities suffering from environmental pollution and also for climate impact studies.     

Forecasting the discomfort levels within the greater Athens area, Greece using artificial neural networks and multiple criteria analysis

In this work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and applied in order to forecast the discomfort levels due to the combination of high temperature and air humidity, during the hot season of the year, in eight different regions within the Greater Athens area (GAA), Greece. For the selection of the best type and architecture of ANNs-forecasting models, the multiple criteria analysis (MCA) technique was applied. Three different types of ANNs were developed and tested with the MCA method. Concretely, the multilayer perceptron, the generalized feed forward networks (GFFN), and the time-lag recurrent networks were developed and tested. Results showed that the best ANNs type performance was achieved by using the GFFN model for the prediction of discomfort levels due to high temperature and air humidity within GAA. For the evaluation of the constructed ANNs, appropriate statistical indices were used. The analysis proved that the forecasting ability of the developed ANNs models is very satisfactory at a significant statistical level of p?<?0.01.