A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

Experimental and geochemical evidence for derivation of the El Capitan Granite,California, by partial melting of hydrous gabbroic lower crust

Partial melting of mafic intrusions recently emplaced into the lower crust can produce voluminous silicic magmas with isotopic ratios similar to their mafic sources. Low-temperature (825 and 850°C) partial melts synthesized at 700 MPa in biotite-hornblende gabbros from the central Sierra Nevada batholith (Sisson et al. in Contrib Mineral Petrol 148:635–661, 2005) have major-element and modeled trace-element (REE, Rb, Ba, Sr, Th, U) compositions matching those of the Cretaceous El Capitan Granite, a prominent granite and silicic granodiorite pluton in the central part of the Sierra Nevada batholith (Yosemite, CA, USA) locally mingled with coeval, isotopically similar quartz diorite through gabbro intrusions (Ratajeski et al. in Geol Soc Am Bull 113:1486–1502, 2001). These results are evidence that the El Capitan Granite, and perhaps similar intrusions in the Sierra Nevada batholith with lithospheric-mantle-like isotopic values, were extracted from LILE-enriched, hydrous (hornblende-bearing) gabbroic rocks in the Sierran lower crust. Granitic partial melts derived by this process may also be silicic end members for mixing events leading to large-volume intermediate composition Sierran plutons such as the Cretaceous Lamarck Granodiorite. Voluminous gabbroic residues of partial melting may be lost to the mantle by their conversion to garnet-pyroxene assemblages during batholithic magmatic crustal thickening.     

Sixty thousand years of magmatic volatile history before the caldera-forming eruption of Mount Mazama, Crater Lake, Oregon

The well-documented eruptive history of Mount Mazama, Oregon, provides an excellent opportunity to use pre-eruptive volatile concentrations to study the growth of an explosive silicic magmatic system. Melt inclusions (MI) hosted in pyroxene and plagioclase crystals from eight dacitic–rhyodacitic eruptive deposits (71–7.7?ka) were analyzed to determine variations in volatile-element concentrations and changes in magma storage conditions leading up to and including the climactic eruption of Crater Lake caldera. Temperatures (Fe–Ti oxides) increased through the series of dacites, then decreased, and increased again through the rhyodacites (918–968 to ~950 to 845–895?°C). Oxygen fugacity began at nickel–nickel-oxide buffer (NNO) +0.8 (71?ka), dropped slightly to NNO +0.3, and then climbed to its highest value with the climactic eruption (7.7?ka) at NNO +1.1 log units. In parallel with oxidation state, maximum MI sulfur concentrations were high early in the eruptive sequence (~500?ppm), decreased (to ~200?ppm), and then increased again with the climactic eruption (~500?ppm). Maximum MI sulfur correlates with the Sr content (as a proxy for LREE, Ba, Rb, P₂O₅) of recharge magmas, represented by basaltic andesitic to andesitic enclaves and similar-aged lavas. These results suggest that oxidized Sr-rich recharge magmas dominated early and late in the development of the pre-climactic dacite–rhyodacite system. Dissolved H₂O concentrations in MI do not, however, correlate with these changes in dominant recharge magma, instead recording vapor solubility relations in the developing shallow magma storage and conduit region. Dissolved H₂O concentrations form two populations through time: the first at 3–4.6 wt% (with a few extreme values up to 6.1 wt%) and the second at ≤2.4 wt%. CO₂ concentrations measured in a subset of these inclusions reach up to 240?ppm in early-erupted deposits (71?ka) and are below detection in climactic deposits (7.7?ka). Combined H₂O and CO₂ concentrations and solubility models indicate a dominant storage region at 4–7?km (up to 12?km), with drier inclusions that diffusively re-equilibrated and/or were trapped at shallower depths. Boron and Cl (except in the climactic deposit) largely remained in the melt, suggesting vapor–melt partition coefficients and gas fractions were low. Modeled Li, F, and S vapor–melt partition coefficients are higher than those of B and Cl. The decrease in maximum MI CO₂ concentration following the earliest dacitic eruptions is interpreted to result from a broadening of the shallow storage region to greater than the diameter of subjacent feeders, so that greater proportions of reservoir magma were to the side of CO₂-bearing vapor bubbles ascending vertically from the locus of recharge magma injection, thereby escaping recarbonation by streaming vapor bubbles. The Mazama melt inclusions provide a picture of a growing magma storage region, where chemical variations in melt and magma occur due to changes in the nature and supply rate of magma recharge, the timing of degassing, and the possible degree of equilibration with gases from below.     

Impact of small-scale structures on estuarine circulation

We present a novel and challenging application of a 3D estuary-shelf model to the study of the collective impact of many small-scale structures (bridge pilings of 1 m × 2 m in size) on larger-scale circulation in a tributary (James River) of Chesapeake Bay. We first demonstrate that the model is capable of effectively transitioning grid resolution from ~?400 m down to ~?1 m near the pilings without introducing undue numerical artifact. We then show that despite their small sizes and collectively small area as compared to the total channel cross-sectional area, the pilings exert a noticeable impact on the large-scale circulation, and also create a rich structure of vortices and wakes around the pilings. As a result, the water quality and local sedimentation patterns near the bridge piling area are likely to be affected as well. However, when evaluating over the entire waterbody of the project area, the near field effects are weighed with the areal percentage which is small compared to that for the larger unaffected area, and therefore the impact on the lower James River as a whole becomes relatively insignificant. The study highlights the importance of the use of high resolution in assessing the near-field impact of structures.     

Subduction,fluids, and accessory minerals: a celebration of the career of Sorena S. Sorensen

ABSTRACT

This is a preface to the topical issue entitled ‘Subduction, Fluids, and Accessory Minerals: A Celebration of the Career of Sorena S. Sorensen’     

Halogen chemistry as an indicator of metamorphic fluid interaction with the Ponder pluton,Coast Plutonic Complex,British Columbia,Canada

During hydrothermal fluid activity associated with the intrusion of the Ponder pluton, Coast Plutonic Complex, British Columbia, Canada, the halogen composition of biotite, amphibole and apatite is controlled by the composition of the metamorphic fluid. The core of the pluton was not affected by infiltrating fluids, and the fluorine composition of biotite was controlled by the biotite Fe-Mg ratio. The edge of the cooling, crystallized pluton interacted with a chlorine-rich, fluorine-poor fluid which changed the halogen composition of biotite and amphibole. The composition of the metamorphic fluid derived from biotite and apatite compositions was relatively high in chlorine and low in fluorine. The concentration of chlorine in the metamorphic fluid increases towards the pluton, whereas fluorine remains constant. This suggests that the metamorphic fluid near the pluton had the greatest potential for masstransfer of metals.     

Basanite–nephelinite suite from early Kilauea: carbonated melts of phlogopite–garnet peridotite at Hawaii’s leading magmatic edge

A basanite–nephelinite glass suite from early submarine Kilauea defines a continuous compositional array marked by increasing concentrations of incompatible components with decreasing SiO₂, MgO, and Al₂O₃. Like peripheral and post-shield strongly alkalic Hawaiian localities (Clague et al. in J Volcanol Geotherm Res 151:279–307, 2006; Dixon et al. in J Pet 38:911–939, 1997), the early Kilauea basanite–nephelinite glasses are interpreted as olivine fractionation products from primary magnesian alkalic liquids. For early Kilauea, these were saturated with a garnet–phlogopite–sulfide peridotite assemblage, with elevated dissolved CO₂ contents responsible for the liquids’ distinctly low-SiO₂ concentrations. Reconstructed primitive liquids for early Kilauea and other Hawaiian strongly alkalic localities are similar to experimental 3 GPa low-degree melts of moderately carbonated garnet lherzolite, and estimated parent magma temperatures of 1,350–1,400°C (olivine–liquid geothermometry) match the ambient upper mantle geotherm shortly beneath the base of the lithosphere. The ~3 GPa source regions were too hot for stable crystalline carbonate and may have consisted of ambient upper mantle peridotite containing interstitial carbonate–silicate or carbonatitic liquid, possibly (Dixon et al. in Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9(9):Q09005, 2008), although not necessarily, from the Hawaiian mantle plume. Carbonate-enriched domains were particularly susceptible to further melting upon modest decompression during upward lithospheric flexure beneath the advancing Hawaiian Arch, or by conductive heating or upward drag by the Hawaiian mantle plume. The early Kilauea basanite–nephelinite suite has a HIMU-influenced isotopic character unlike other Hawaiian magmas (Shimizu et al. in EOS Tran Amer Geophys Union 82(47): abstr V12B-0962, 2001; Shimizu et al. in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 66(15A):710, 2002) but consistent with oceanic carbonatite involvement (Hoernle et al. in Contrib Mineral Petrol 142:520–542, 2002). It may represent the melting products of a fertile domain in the ambient upper mantle impinged upon and perturbed by the sustained plume source that feeds later shield-stage magmatism.     

Very-low-temperature record of the subduction process: A review of worldwide lawsonite eclogites

Lawsonite eclogites preserve a record of very-low-temperature conditions in subduction zones. All occur at active margin settings, typically characterized by accretionary complexes lithologies and as tectonic blocks within serpentinite-matrix mélange. Peak lawsonite-eclogite facies mineral assemblages (garnet + omphacite + lawsonite + rutile) typically occur in prograde-zoned garnet porphyroblasts. Their matrix is commonly overprinted by higher-temperature epidote-bearing assemblages; greenschist- or amphibolite-facies conditions erase former lawsonite-eclogite relics. Various pseudomorphs after lawsonite occur, particularly in some blueschist/eclogite transitional facies rocks. Coesite-bearing lawsonite-eclogite xenoliths in kimberlitic pipes and lawsonite pseudomorphs in some relatively low-temperature ultrahigh-pressure eclogites are known. Using inclusion assemblages in garnet, lawsonite eclogites can be classified into two types: L-type, such as those from Guatemala and British Columbia, contain garnet porphyroblasts that grew only within the lawsonite stability field and E-type, such as from the Dominican Republic, record maximum temperature in the epidote-stability field.

Formation and preservation of lawsonite eclogites requires cold subduction to mantle depths and rapid exhumation. The earliest occurrences of lawsonite-eclogite facies mineral assemblages are Early Paleozoic in Spitsbergen and the New England fold belt of Australia; this suggests that since the Phanerozoic, secular cooling of Earth and subduction-zone thermal structures evolved the necessary high pressure/temperature conditions. Buoyancy of serpentinite and oblique convergence with a major strike-slip component may facilitate the exhumation of lawsonite eclogites from mantle depths.     

Segregating gas from melt: an experimental study of the Ostwald ripening of vapor bubbles in magmas

Diffusive coarsening (Ostwald ripening) of H₂O and H₂O-CO₂ bubbles in rhyolite and basaltic andesite melts was studied with elevated temperature–pressure experiments to investigate the rates and time spans over which vapor bubbles may enlarge and attain sufficient buoyancy to segregate in magmatic systems. Bubble growth and segregation are also considered in terms of classical steady-state and transient (non-steady-state) ripening theory. Experimental results are consistent with diffusive coarsening as the dominant mechanism of bubble growth. Ripening is faster in experiments saturated with pure H₂O than in those with a CO₂-rich mixed vapor probably due to faster diffusion of H₂O than CO₂ through the melt. None of the experimental series followed the time^1/3 increase in mean bubble radius and time⁻¹ decrease in bubble number density predicted by classical steady-state ripening theory. Instead, products are interpreted as resulting from transient regime ripening. Application of transient regime theory suggests that bubbly magmas may require from days to 100 years to reach steady-state ripening conditions. Experimental results, as well as theory for steady-state ripening of bubbles that are immobile or undergoing buoyant ascent, indicate that diffusive coarsening efficiently eliminates micron-sized bubbles and would produce mm-sized bubbles in 10²–10⁴ years in crustal magma bodies. Once bubbles attain mm-sizes, their calculated ascent rates are sufficient that they could transit multiple kilometers over hundreds to thousands of years through mafic and silicic melt, respectively. These results show that diffusive coarsening can facilitate transfer of volatiles through, and from, magmatic systems by creating bubbles sufficiently large for rapid ascent.