Inertial ranges in three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence

A theory is presented both for spectral energy transfer and for the transfer of spectral components of pseudo-potential enstrophy in a homogeneous quasi-geostrophic turbulent field which is rendered anisotropic by the distortion caused by a random collection of vortices superimposed on the principal motions. The fluid is, thus, subjected to an almost irrotational distortion. The random vortices cause straining effects on turbulent velocity and temperature fluctuations and modify the energy spectrum in the spectral ranges of interest. The strain imposed by the distortion is assumed to be homogeneous. For three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence that conserves pseudo-potential enstrophy as well as energy, this theory predicts –8/3 and –4 power inertial-range energy spectra.The predictions favourably corroborate the observed spectrum of energy in the atmosphere in the region of hemispheric wave-numbers 10–16 with a –8/3 slope and at higher wave-numbers with –4 slope on a log-log energy-wave-number diagram. The transfer rates of pseudo-potential enstrophy in the range 10n16 and of energy in the rangen>16 are identically zero, while the transfer of energy in the first range is from higher to lower wave-numbers and that of the pseudo-potential enstrophy in the second range is from lower to higher wave-numbers.As compared with the earlier two-dimensional turbulence theory of Kraichnan and the quasigeostrophic turbulence theory of Charney, the present theory predicts more realistic shapes of the energy spectra of atmospheric motions at scales shorter than the baroclinic excitation scales.     

The Association Between Circulation Anomaliesin the Mid-Troposphere and Area Burnedby Wildland Fire in Canada

Summary  There is evidence that the area burned by wildland fire has increased in certain regions of Canada in recent decades. One cause for this increase is changes in the mid-tropospheric circulation at 500 hPa over northern North America. This study examines the physical links between anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over various regions of Canada and wildland fire severity. Analysis of monthly and seasonal burned areas for the period 1953 to 1995 reveals a bimodal distribution with distinct low and extreme high burned area years. The high/low burned area years coincide with positive/negative 500 hPa height anomalies over north-western, western, west-central and east-central Canada. Total area burned and the 500 hPa height anomaly data are analyzed for statistical relationships using the Spearman rank correlation non-parametric measure. Results for the May to August fire season indicate statistically significant correlations between regional total area burned and clusters of anomalous 500 hPa geopotential height values immediately over, and immediately upstream of the affected region. For the north-western and west-central regions, significantly correlated clusters are found in the central Pacific as well, providing evidence of the influence of a teleconnection structure on the summer climate of western and north-western North America. Two sample comparison tests show statistically significant differences in both the means and variances of the fire data populations during negative and positive phases of mid-tropospheric flow, and the means of the height anomaly populations during extremely high and extremely low area burned seasons. Increases in regional total area burned are related to increases in mean 500 hPa heights, taken from the significantly correlated clusters of height values, between two successive periods 1953–74 and 1975–95. For Canada as a whole, the five lowest area burned seasons all occurred during the early period, while the five highest seasons occurred during the later period. The difference in the geopotential height fields between the two periods identifies an increase in 500 hPa heights over most of Canada with an amplification of the western Canada ridge and an eastward shifted Canadian Polar Trough (CPT). Received October 19, 1998     

The impact of el Nino‐Southern oscillation on the temperature field over Canada: Research note

Abstract

The impact of the two phases of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Niño and La Niña, on the surface and lower tropospheric temperature fields over Canada is documented. Gridded surface temperature data for 91 years (1900–1990) and 500–1000 hPa thickness data for 49 years (1946–1994) have been analyzed statistically in the context of El Niño, La Niña and normal years.

Using a composite analysis, the present study conclusively demonstrates that significant positive surface temperature anomalies spread eastward from the west coast of Canada to the Labrador coast from the late fall to early spring (November through May) following the onset of El Niño episodes. The accompanying temperatures in the lower troposphere show a transition from the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern to the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern over the North American sector during the same period. Conversely, significant negative surface temperature anomalies spread southeastward from the Yukon and extend into the upper Great Lakes region by the winter season following the onset of La Niña episodes. Furthermore, the lower tropospheric temperatures show a negatively‐phased PNA‐like pattern in early winter which weakens considerably by May of the following year. Thus, while western Canadian surface temperatures are influenced during both phases of ENSO, eastern Canadian surface temperature effects are found during the El Niño phase only. The impact of ENSO on the Canadian surface temperatures is the strongest during the winter season and nearly disappears by spring (April and May). The largest positive (negative) anomalies are found to be centred over two separate regions, one over the Yukon and the other just west of Hudson Bay in the El Niño (La Niña) years. Over western Canada, mean wintertime temperature distribution of the El Niño (La Niña) years is found to be shifted towards warmer (colder) values relative to the distribution of the normal years.

This study suggests the possibility of developing a long‐range forecasting technique for Canada using ENSO related indices.     

Temporal structures of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on the regional climate variability

In this study, the temporal structure of the variation of North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and its impact on regional climate variability are analyzed using various datasets. The results show that blocking formations in the Atlantic region are sensitive to the phase of the NAO. Sixty-seven percent more winter blocking days are observed during the negative phase compared to the positive phase of the NAO. The average length of blocking during the negative phase is about 11 days, which is nearly twice as long as the 6-day length observed during the positive phase of the NAO. The NAO-related differences in blocking frequency and persistence are associated with changes in the distribution of the surface air temperature anomaly, which, to a large extent, is determined by the phase of the NAO. The distribution of regional cloud amount is also sensitive to the phase of the NAO. For the negative phase, the cloud amounts are significant, positive anomalies in the convective zone in the Tropics and much less cloudiness in the mid latitudes. But for the positive phase of the NAO, the cloud amount is much higher in the mid-latitude storm track region. In the whole Atlantic region, the cloud amount shows a decrease with the increase of surface air temperature. These results suggest that there may be a negative feedback between the cloud amount and the surface air t.emperature in the Atlantic region.     

An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada

The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) indicated that observed 20th century changes in severalclimatic extremes are qualitatively consistent with those expected due to increasedgreenhouse gases. However, a lack of adequate data and analyses make conclusiveevidence of changing extremes somewhat difficult, particularly, in a global sense.In Canada, extreme temperature events, especially those during winter, can havemany adverse environmental and economic impacts. In light of the aforementionedIPCC report, the main focus of this analysis is to examine observed trends andvariability in the frequency, duration, and intensity of winter (Jan–Feb–Mar) cold and warm spells over Canada during the second half of the 20th century.Cold spell trends display substantial spatial variability across the country. From1950–1998, western Canada has experienced decreases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold spells, while in the east, distinct increases in the frequency and duration have occurred. These increases are likely associated with morefrequent occurrences of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)during the last several decades. With regard to winter warm spells, significantincreases in both the frequency and duration of these episodes were observedacross most of Canada. One exception was found in the extreme northeasternregions, where warm spells are becoming shorter and less frequent. The resultsof this study are discussed within the context of climate warming expectations.     

Permian macro- and miofloral diversity,palynodating and palaeoclimate implications deduced from the coal-bearing sequences of Singrauli coalfield,Son–Mahanadi Basin,central India

The coal-bearing sequences of Barakar and Raniganj formations exposed in Bina and Jhingurdah open-cast collieries, respectively, are analysed for their macro- and miofloral content. The sediment successions primarily comprise of sandstones, shales, claystones and coal seams. In addition to the diverse glossopterid assemblage, four palynoassemblage zones, namely Zones I and II in Bina Colliery and Zones III and IV in Jhingurdah Colliery, have also been recorded in the present study. The megafossil assemblage from the Barakar strata of Bina Colliery comprises of three genera, namely Gangamopteris, Glossopteris and cf. Noeggerathiopsis. Palynoassemblage-I is characterised by the dominance of non-striate bisaccate pollen genus Scheuringipollenites and subdominance of striate bisaccate Faunipollenites and infers these strata to be of Early Permian (Artinskian) age (Lower Barakar Formation). The palynoassemblage has also yielded a large number of naked fossil spore tetrads, which is the first record of spore tetrads from any Artinskian strata in the world and has a significant bearing on the climatic conditions. The palynoassemblage-II is characterised with the dominance of Faunipollenites over Scheuringipollenites and is indicative of Kungurian age (Upper Barakar Formation). The megafossil assemblage from the Raniganj Formation of Jhingurdah Colliery comprises of five genera with 26 species representing four orders, viz., Equisetales, Cordaitales, Cycadales and Glossopteridales. The order Glossopteridales is highly diversified with 23 taxa and the genus Glossopteris, with 22 species, dominates the flora. The mioflora of this colliery is represented by two distinct palynoassemblages. The palynoassemblage-III is correlatable with the palynoflora of Early Permian (Artinskian) Lower Barakar Formation. The assemblage suggests the continuity of older biozones into the younger ones. The palynoassemblage-IV equates the beds with composition V: Striatopodocarpites–Faunipollenites–Gondisporites assemblage zone of Tiwari and Tripathi (1992) of Late Permian (Lopingian) Raniganj Formation in Damodar Basin. The FAD’s of Alisporites, Klausipollenites, Falcisporites, Arcuatipollenites pellucidus and Playfordiaspora cancellosa palynotaxa in this assemblage enhance the end Permian level of the Jhingurdah Top seam, as these elements are the key species to mark the transition of Permian into the Lower Triassic.     

Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability Associated with Growing Season Droughts and Pluvials on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

The importance of measurements of the vertical distribution of odd nitrogen in studies of ozone chemistry and climate change has long being recognized. In this paper, we use the optimal estimation method developed by Rodgers (1976, 1990) to retrieve NO₂ vertical profiles from slant column observations made with a portable ultraviolet (UV)‐visible zenith‐sky spectrometer operated on the ground during the Middle Atmosphere Nitrogen TRend Assessment (MANTRA) balloon campaign carried out at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, Canada (52°N, 107°W), from 18 to 25 August 1998. Late summer was chosen for the campaign because the stratospheric zonal wind velocity changes sign at that time. Under such conditions the stratospheric winds are at a minimum, leaving the stratosphere in a dynamically quiescent state and closer to photochemical control (Fahey et al., 2001; Fioletov and Shepherd, 2003). The NO₂ profile retrieved from the ground‐based observations is compared with the co‐located and simultaneous NO₂ profile measured by a balloon‐borne UV‐visible spectrometer during sunrise on 24 August. Good agreement is observed, giving us confidence in the retrieval technique adopted. The retrieved NO₂ profiles are also compared with the output of the Model for Evaluating oZONe trends (MEZON) 3D stratospheric chemical transport model. It is observed that, for altitudes below the peak concentration, the model underestimates the NO₂ amount, and at the altitude of peak concentration, the model values lie between the values measured from the balloon and those retrieved from the ground‐based measurements. Nevertheless, the model reproduces the general shape of the retrieved profiles, including the altitude of the NO₂ maximum, for both sunrise and sunset conditions.     

Ice Storm ’98 in Southcentral Canada and Northeastern United States: A Climatological Perspective

Summary Dubbed Ice Storm ’98, an extreme weather event characterized by two synoptic systems in succession dropped about 70–100 mm (in terms of water equivalent) of freezing precipitation over southeastern Ontario, southwestern Quebec and northeastern New York during a 6-day period from January 5 to 10 in 1998. Individually, the two synoptic systems were not dramatically more extreme in freezing precipitation than other major freezing rain events (4 since 1961) which occurred in the past over the affected area. Some regions in the target area, however, were impacted more by the second system. Based on an analysis of the 500 hPa vorticity field during the ’98 event, we suggest that the 1997/98 El Ni?o had a role in creating a flow environment conducive to the rapid formation of the second synoptic system. In contrast, other major freezing rain events in the last 30 years involved only one synoptic system per event lasting no more than 3 days, and producing 20–50 mm of precipitation. We have also found that, 3 out of 4 past major freezing rain events since 1958 were associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Consistent with this usual past association between the NAO and a major freezing rain event, Ice Storm ’98 also occurred when the phase of the NAO was positive. Analysis of these 3 past and the ’98 events also indicates an apparent connection between the positive phase of the NAO and the northern Quebec high pressure system, which is an essential synoptic feature of a major freezing rain occurrence over the southcentral region of Canada. As measured by their respective indices, the maximum positive NAO state leads the maximum northern Quebec high by about 2 days (5 days in the ’98 event). There is some suggestive evidence to indicate that the persistence of the northern Quebec high pressure system is connected to the persistence of the positive phase of the NAO. Received January 17, 2000     

The nonlinear association between the Arctic Oscillation and North American winter climate

Nonlinear projections of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index onto North American winter (December–March) 500-mb geopotential height (Z500) and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies reveal a pronounced asymmetry in the atmospheric patterns associated with positive and negative phases of the AO. In a linear view, the Z500 anomaly field associated with positive AO resembles a positive North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with statistically significant positive and negative anomalies stretching zonally into central-eastern USA and Canada, respectively, resulting in a cold climate anomaly over northeastern and eastern Canada, Alaska and the west coast of USA, and a warm climate anomaly over the rest of the continent. By contrast, the nonlinear behavior, mainly a quadratic association with AO, which is most apparent when the amplitude of the AO index is large, has the same spatial pattern and sign for both positive and negative values of the index. The nonlinear pattern reveals negative Z500 anomalies over the west coast of USA and the North Atlantic and positive Z500 anomalies at higher latitudes centered over the Gulf of Alaska and northeastern Canada accompanied by cooler than normal climate over the USA and southwestern Canada and warmer than normal climate over other regions of the continent. A similar analysis is conducted on the data from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis second generation coupled general circulation model. The nonlinear patterns of North American Z500 and SAT anomalies associated with the AO in the model simulation are generally consistent with the observational results, thereby confirming the robustness of the nonlinear behavior of North American winter climate with respect to the AO in a climate simulation that is completely independent of the observations.