Role of African–Eurasian plate setting in the felt areas of intermediate‐depth earthquakes: an investigation using crowdsourced data

Greek intermediate‐depth earthquakes, occurring in the subducted plate of the Hellenic Arc, are felt at greater distances than expected, reaching Italy in some cases. We study in detail macroseismic intensity data from intermediate‐depth Italian and Greek earthquakes collected from Internet users who felt the shaking in Italy. The huge amount of data allowed us to outline the felt/not‐felt limit and to find a correspondence between attenuation areas and the presence of asthenospheric material at shallow depths. We show that plate boundaries, known to produce the majority of earthquakes, are, in some specific cases, the boundaries of areas in which earthquakes are felt. The Ionian subducted lithosphere propagates seismic waves with low attenuation over large distances, whereas high‐attenuation zones in Italy, linked to asthenospheric upwelling, limit the propagation, as evidenced also by PGA values. We identify a typical pattern that can be used to recognize intermediate‐depth earthquakes, and to properly locate historical events.     

Web-based macroseismic survey in Italy: method validation and results

A new method of macroseismic surveys, based on voluntary collaboration through the Internet, has been running at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) since July 2007. The macroseismic questionnaire is addressed to a single non-specialist; reported effects are statistically analysed to extrapolate a probabilistic estimate of Mercalli Cancani Sieberg and European Macroseismic Scale intensities for that observer. Maps of macroseismic intensity are displayed online in almost real time and are continuously updated when new data are made available. For densely inhabited zones, we have received reports of felt effects for even very small events (M = 2). Six earthquakes are presented here, showing the ability of the method to give fast and interesting results. The effects reported in questionnaires coming from three towns are carefully analysed and assigned intensities are compared with those derived from traditional macroseismic surveys, showing the reliability of our web-based method.     

Macroseismic effects highlight site response in Rome and its geological signature

A detailed analysis of the earthquake effects on the urban area of Rome has been conducted for the L??Aquila sequence, which occurred in April 2009, by using an online macroseismic questionnaire. Intensity residuals calculated using the mainshock and four aftershocks are analyzed in light of a very accurate and original geological reconstruction of the subsoil of Rome based on a large amount of wells. The aim of this work is to highlight ground motion amplification areas and to find a correlation with the geological settings at a subregional scale, putting in evidence the extreme complexity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of making a simplified model. Correlations between amplification areas and both near-surface and deep geology were found. Moreover, the detailed scale of investigation has permitted us to find a correlation between seismic amplification in recent alluvial settings and subsiding zones, and between heard seismic sound and Tiber alluvial sediments.     

Deep 1.4-GHz observations of diffuse polarized emission

Polarized diffuse emission observations at 1.4 GHz in a high Galactic latitude area of the Northern celestial hemisphere are presented. The  3.2 × 3.2 deg²  field, centred at  RA = 10^h58^m, Dec. =+42°18' (B1950)  , has Galactic coordinates   l ∼ 172°, b ∼+63°  and is located in the region selected as northern target of the Balloon-borne Radiometers for Sky Polarization Observations experiment. Observations have been performed with the Effelsberg 100-m telescope. We find that the angular power spectra of the E and B modes have slopes of  β _E =−1.79 ± 0.13  and  β _B =−1.74 ± 0.12  , respectively. Because of the very high Galactic latitude and the smooth emission, a weak Faraday rotation action is expected, which allows both a fair extrapolation to cosmic microwave background polarization (CMBP) frequencies and an estimate of the contamination by the Galactic synchrotron emission. We extrapolate the E -mode spectrum up to 32 GHz and confirm the possibility to safely detect the CMBP E -mode signal in the Ka band found in another low-emission region. Extrapolated up to 90 GHz, the Galactic synchrotron B mode looks to compete with the cosmic signal only for models with a tensor-to-scalar perturbation power ratio   T / S < 0.001  , which is even lower than the T / S value of 0.01 found to be accessible in the only other high Galactic latitude area investigated to date. This suggests that values as low as   T / S = 0.01  might be accessed at high Galactic latitudes. Such low-emission values can allow a significant redshift of the best frequency to detect the CMBP B mode, also reducing the contamination by Galactic dust, and opening interesting perspectives to investigate inflation models.     

An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.