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1.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
2.
Richard C. Preece Simon A. Parfitt G. Russell Coope Kirsty E. H. Penkman Philippe Ponel John E. Whittaker 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(6):557-580
Considerable debate surrounds the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in East Anglia following some recent stratigraphical reinterpretations. Resolution of the stratigraphy here is important since it not only concerns the glacial history of the region but also has a bearing on our understanding of the earliest human occupation of north‐western Europe. The orthodox consensus that all the tills were emplaced during the Anglian (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12) has recently been challenged by a view assigning each major till to a different glacial stage, before, during and after MIS 12. Between Trimingham and Sidestrand on the north Norfolk coast, datable organic sediments occur immediately below and above the glacial succession. The oldest glacial deposit (Happisburgh Till) directly overlies the ‘Sidestrand Unio‐bed’, here defined as the Sidestrand Hall Member of the Cromer Forest‐bed Formation. Dating of these sediments therefore has a bearing on the maximum age of the glacial sequence. This paper reviews the palaeobotany and describes the faunal assemblages recovered from the Sidestrand Unio‐bed, which accumulated in a fluvial environment in a fully temperate climate with regional deciduous woodland. There are indications from the ostracods for weakly brackish conditions. Significant differences are apparent between the Sidestrand assemblages and those from West Runton, the type site of the Cromerian Stage. These differences do not result from contrasting facies or taphonomy but reflect warmer palaeotemperatures at Sidestrand and a much younger age. This conclusion is suggested by the higher proportion of thermophiles at Sidestrand and the occurrence of a water vole with unrooted molars (Arvicola) rather than its ancestor Mimomys savini with rooted molars. Amino acid racemisation data also indicate that Sidestrand is significantly younger than West Runton. These data further highlight the stratigraphical complexity of the ‘Cromerian Complex’ and support the conventional view that the Happisburgh Till was emplaced during the Anglian rather than the recently advanced view that it dates from MIS 16. Moreover, new evidence from the Trimingham lake bed (Sidestrand Cliff Formation) above the youngest glacial outwash sediments (Briton's Lane Formation) indicates that they also accumulated during a Middle Pleistocene interglacial – probably MIS 11. All of this evidence is consistent with a short chronology placing the glacial deposits within MIS 12, rather than invoking multiple episodes of glaciation envisaged in the ‘new glacial stratigraphy’ during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
In an attempt to discover planetary eclipses, we observed the open cluster NGC 7086. On one night we observed the cluster and standard stars through the B and V filters, enabling us to make a colour-magnitude diagram. Plots of the differential magnitudes were inspected for variability, but no planetary eclipses were found. New variable stars were discovered and their light curves show some of them to be eclipsing binary stars. The location on the colour-magnitude diagram of some of the variable stars is consistent with cluster membership. 相似文献
4.
Marie K. McCabe Zdeněk F. Švestka Russell A. Howard Bernard V. Jackson Neil R. Sheeley Jr. 《Solar physics》1986,103(2):399-408
By using a combination of X-ray (HXIS), H (Haleakala), white-light corona (Solwind), and zodiacal light (Helios) images on 21–22 May, 1980 we demonstrate, and try to explain, the co-existence of a coronal mass ejection with a stationary post-flare coronal arch. The mass ejection was seen, both by Solwind and Helios, in prolongation of the path of a powerful spray, whereas the active region filament did not erupt. A tentative comparison is made with other occurrences of stationary, or quasi-stationary post-flare coronal arches. 相似文献
5.
A. Wendy Russell 《Geoforum》2008,39(1):213-222
In this paper, I argue that genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have inherent potential to contribute to socially and environmentally sustainable agriculture by virtue of their ‘biological embeddedness’. Their actual ‘performance’ and how this contributes to sustainability depends on the ‘mutual shaping’ of technology and context. While much attention has been given to the design context of GMOs, this paper considers the influence of the application context and of users. A case study investigating the use of insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant GM cotton in the cotton-growing region of New South Wales in Australia is presented. The study was based on focus groups with farmers and other stakeholders in a cotton-growing community. It demonstrated a range of direct and indirect effects of GM cotton use, both positive and negative for sustainability, and the ways in which these effects were influenced by the local social context. The influences of the biotechnology industry context, in limiting the contributions that gene technologies can make to sustainability, were also considered, and remedies suggested. I argue that the polarity of the GM debate is hindering progress on these issues, and that a more balanced approach to our analysis of GMOs is necessary in order to fully understand, and to influence, their role in the future of rural spaces. 相似文献
6.
Trace element concentrations (Pb, Cd, Mn, Fe, and Zn) were measured along four surface water transects across the continental shelf off Baja California, to evaluate the magnitude of heavy metal contamination in the coastal waters along the US-Mexican boundary. These initial measurements of trace elements in Mexican neritic waters revealed offshore concentration gradients, with the highest levels in coastal waters with high salinities and nutrient concentrations. There were also longshore gradients, with lower concentrations in the southern locations. Although the relative enrichment of metals detected at nearshore stations along the US-Mexican border appeared to correspond to wastewater discharges in that area, these trace metal enhancements were found to be primarily associated with physical oceanographic processes (upwelling and advection), rather than anthropogenic inputs. This was demonstrated both by metal-nutrient correlations and multivariate statistical analyses. Mass balance calculations also indicated that about 1% of Cd, 9% of Zn, and 29% of Pb were from urban discharges within the area. 相似文献
7.
Antonio Tovar-Snchez Sergio A. Saudo-Wilhelmy A. Russell Flegal 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2004,60(4):717-728
Despite the fact that Co is an essential trace element for the growth of marine phytoplankton, there is very limited information on the cycling of this trace metal in the marine environment. We report here the distribution of dissolved (<0.4 μm) and particulate (>0.4 μm) Co in surface waters of the Hudson River Estuary (HRE) and San Francisco Bay (SFB). Samples were collected during several cruises (from 1990 to 1995 in SFB and from 1995 to 1997 in the HRE) along the whole salinity gradient. Dissolved Co concentrations (mean±1 standard deviation) were nearly identical in magnitude in both estuaries despite differences in climate, hydrography, riverine-flow conditions and land-usage (HRE=0.91±0.61 nM; SFB=1.12±0.69 nM). Dissolved Co levels in each system showed non-conservative distributions when plotted as a function of salinity, with increasing concentrations downstream from the riverine end-members. Desorption from suspended particulates and sewage inputs, therefore, seems to be the major processes responsible for the non-conservative behavior of Co observed. Mass balance estimates also indicated that most of the estuarine Co is exported out of both estuaries, indicating that they and other estuarine systems are principal sources of this essential trace element to the open ocean. 相似文献
8.
M. Arockiasamy H. El-Tahan A.S.J. Swamidas W.E. Russell D.V. Reddy 《Ocean Engineering》1984,11(5):463-490
The paper presents an analytical and experimental study on the transient response of semisubmersibles to bergybit impact and the strength of bergybit ice to high strain-rate loadings. Two approaches have been proposed for the solution of the semisubmersible-bergybit interaction problem, one using the energy approach and the other using the conventional structural dynamics approach with initial velocity conditions. In addition the local behaviour of the impacted regions have been analysed for deformation and failure. Numerical results have been given for local behaviour of an impacted column and global behaviour of semisubmersible-bergybit system. Experimental study has been reported on the impact strength of iceberg ice at strain rates of 10−3, 10−2 and 10−1; the indentation impact strength of ice is found to be 3–4 times the unaixial compressive strength, at the same strain rate. 相似文献
9.
10.
The Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) program will produce an extremely sensitive all-sky survey over the wavelength region 8 to 120 μm when the mission is flown in 1982. These data will provide a novel opportunity to detect planetary-sized objects having masses <0.08M⊙ or near our solar system. The improved detection limit of the IRAS will greatly increase the volume of space searched for such objects as compared with previous optical and infrared studies. 相似文献