Environmental Factors Contributing to the Development and Demise of a Toxic Dinoflagellate (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Karlodinium veneficum</Emphasis>) Bloom in a Shallow,Eutrophic, Lagoonal Estuary

A dense bloom of the ichthyotoxic dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum was discovered in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, on 19 October 2006 and was associated with four subsequent fish kills. Microscopic, photopigment, DNA, and toxicological techniques confirmed bloom identity and toxicity. High-resolution spatio-temporal data from ship-board and fixed automated sampling stations provided a unique opportunity to investigate the environmental conditions that initiated, maintained, and terminated the K. veneficum bloom. Bloom initiation and growth were favored by high nutrient availability and reduced dispersal during the period of declining riverine discharge after Tropical Storm Ernesto. K. veneficum out-competed other co-occurring dinoflagellates, perhaps because of the production of karlotoxins that are known to act as grazing deterrents and to facilitate mixotrophic feeding. Once the bloom was established, small-scale hydrodynamic processes, coupled with vertical migration, concentrated cells along a frontal convergence to high densities (>200,000 cells per milliliter). By 26 October 2006, wind mixing and possible nutrient stress disrupted the bloom. Release of cell-bound toxins during the bloom collapse likely accounted for the associated fish kill events where fish were reported as exhibiting typical symptoms of karlotoxin poisoning. The dynamics of this bloom underscore the tight control of harmful algal blooms by meteorological forcing, hydrology, and sediment nutrient input in this shallow lagoonal estuary.     

North-south transfer zones and paleo-morphological reconstruction of the Xylokastro area (Corinth Gulf, Greece)

A large number of studies have documented the structural and sedimentary architecture of the Corinth Gulf, especially the major E–W trending normal faults important in accommodating the main extensional strain and associated growth of the Gilbert fan deltas. However, the role of several N–S oriented structures that crop out at the surface and are detectable at depth by seismic reflection and gravity surveys are not clearly understood. Based on new geological data, collected near Xylokastro, we describe the N–S oriented tectonic activity of this area. The mapped inland faults correspond to off-shore structures identified in re-interpreted seismic lines and appear to have acted as a major transfer zone during the opening of the Corinth Gulf. Reconstruction of the paleo-topography based on sedimentary facies and the environment of clay mineral formation suggest these transfer zones played an important role in controlling both local structural relief and depositional conditions of the Gilbert fan deltas.     

Wet Fault or Dry Fault? A Laboratory Approach to Remotely Monitor the Hydro-Mechanical State of a Discontinuity Using Controlled-Source Seismics

Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B _n ) and tangential (B _t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P _eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B _n and B _t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B _n are significantly higher than those of B _t at low P _eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B _n  ≈ B _t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B _n /B _t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B _n against B _t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.     

MAPPING OF FORESTED WETLAND: USE OF SEASAT RADAR IMAGES TO COMPLEMENT CONVENTIONAL SOURCES

Distinguishing forested wetland from dry forest using aerial photographs is handicapped because photographs often do not reveal the presence of water below tree canopies. Radar images obtained by the Seasat satellite reveal forested wetland as highly reflective patterns on the coastal plain between Maryland and Florida. Seasat radar images may complement aerial photographs for compiling maps of wetland. A test with experienced photointerpreters revealed that interpretation accuracy was significantly higher when using Seasat radar images than when using only conventional sources.     

Simulation of the Influence of Rate- and State-dependent Friction on the Macroscopic Behavior of Complex Fault Zones with the Lattice Solid Model

-- In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by Dieterich and Kilgore (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D_c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.     

3D model of fracture zones at Soultz-sous-Forêts based on geological data,image logs,induced microseismicity and vertical seismic profiles

This study presents a new deterministic 3D model of the fracture zones observed in the granitic reservoir of the Soultz European geothermal project. The major fracture zones encountered around 6 wells (4550, EPS1, GPK1, GPK2, GPK3 and GPK4) consist in 53 main structures that are located and characterized in terms of size and orientation: 39 fracture zones, 8 microseismic structures and 6 structures derived from vertical seismic profiles are represented in the 3D model using Discrete Fracture Network tools of the gOcad modelling platform (Paradigm?, Earth Decision?). This work illustrates the complexity of 3D fracture zone correlation and interpretation in crystalline rock masses characterized at meter scale (borehole) and at the reservoir scale (kilometer) thanks to geophysical imaging techniques.     

Statistical Tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio Signals by Lattice Solid Model: Implication to Tidal Triggering and Earthquake Prediction

— Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (Mora et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(k T) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, A T/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.     

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

— The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.     

Stress Correlation Function Evolution in Lattice Solid Elasto-dynamic Models of Shear and Fracture Zones and Earthquake Prediction

--It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.