What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.     

Effect of element size on the static finite element analysis of steep slopes

The accuracy of the computed stress distribution near the free surface of vertical slopes was evaluated in this study as a function of the element size, including aspect ratio. To accomplish this objective, a parametric study was carried out comparing stresses computed using the finite element method (FEM) to those obtained from a physical model composed of photoelastic material. The results of the study indicate a reasonable agreement between a gelatin model and the FEM model for shear stresses, and an overall good agreement between the two models for the principal stresses. For stresses along the top of the slope, the height of the element tends to be more important than width or aspect ratio, at least for aspect ratios up to 4. In all cases, the greatest difference between the two models occurs in the vicinity of the slope. Specifically, if H is defined as the slope height, an element height of H/10 appears to be adequate for the study of stresses deep within the slope, such as for typical embankment analyses. However, for cases where tensile stresses in the vicinity of the slope face which are critical, such as for the stability analysis of steep slopes, element heights as small as H/32, or higher‐order elements, are necessary. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Atmospheric Drag on Satellite Orbits During the Bastille Day Event

Geomagnetic storms driven by solar eruptions are known to have significant effects on the total density of the upper atmosphere in the altitude range 250–1000 km. This in turn causes a measurable effect on the orbits of resident space objects in this altitude range. We analyzed a sample of these orbits, both from sensor data and from orbital element sets, during the period surrounding the 14 July 2000 solar activity. We present information concerning the effects of this event on the orbits of resident space objects and how well accepted atmospheric models were able to represent it. As part of this analysis, we describe a technique for extracting atmospheric density information from orbital element sets. On daily time scales, the effect of geomagnetic activity appears to be more important than that of prompt radiation. However, the limitations in time and amplitude quantization of the accepted solar indices are evident. A limited comparison is also made with previous solar storm events.     

Local potential analysis of MHD instability

In many astrophysical problems, the study of the stability of an atmosphere in the presence of a magnetic field is of importance. In most cases the MHD instabilities of atmospheres are studied by energy principle of Bernsteinet al. (1958). In this paper, a general method for studying the stability of a system subject to MHD equations of conditions has been proposed. This is based on the local potential concept put forward by Glansdorff and Prigogine (1964). The scheme for securing stability criteria has been demonstrated in two particular cases.