FINDING CAUSES OF OUTLIERS IN MULTIVARIATE ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

Multivariate outliers in environmental data sets are often caused by atypical measurement error in a singlevariable.From a quality assurance perspective it is important to identify these variables efficiently so thatcorrective actions may be performed.We demonstrate a procedure for using two multivariate tests toidentify which variable‘caused’each outlier.The procedure is tested with simulated data sets that havethe same correlation structure as selected water chemistry variables from a survey of lakes in the WesternUnited States.The success rates are evaluated for three of the variables for sample sizes of 50 and 100,significance levels of 0.01 and 0.05 and various amounts of mean shift.The procedure works best forhighly correlated variables.     

Anthropogenic Sulfate and Nitrate Signals in Snow from Bogda Glacier, Eastern Tianshan

A 1.2 m snow pit was recovered on July 29th, 2009 from the Bogda Glacier, eastern Tianshan (天山). The sample site temperature of -9.6 ℃ indicates that the unique glaciochemical re-cord was well preserved and suitable for the reconstruction of air pollution levels in this previously un-explored region. Samples were analyzed for major ions (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-, HCOO-, and CH3COO-). NO3- and SO42- were characterized by significant high levels of pollution con-centration. Most air masses ...     

Tommotian (Lower Cambrian) stratigraphy and fossil fauna communities in the Kiya River section (Kuznetsk Alatau)

The lower Ust’-Kundat Formation has been studied in detail in a section along the Kiya River (Kuznetsk Alatau, Altai-Sayan folded area). The section was deposited during the Tommotian stage and is a stratotype for the Lower Cambrian Ust’-Kundat sequence comprising several members of the Ust’-Kundat Formation. Member 2 contains newly discovered and previously known species of archaeocyathids near its top found stratigraphically lower than the oldest known archaeocyathan assemblage of the Nochoroicyathus mariinskii biozone. The found archaeocyaths cannot be dated precisely and may have either Tommotian or Atdabanian ages. Small shelly fossils from the same section cover a large stratigraphic range as well. The findings call for updating the age of the upper Ust’-Kundat sequence and the Tommotian upper boundary in the regional stratigraphy of the Altai-Sayan folded area.     

Benthic Cambrian biofacies of the Siberian Platform (hyoliths, small shelly fossils, archeocyaths, trilobites and calcareous algae)

The Early Cambrian history of the development of the Siberian Platform was marked by events of global significance. In the Early Cambrian the Siberian Platform was the centre of appearance of the first shelly fossils. For this reason, paleobiogeographical features of the distribution of fossils are of interest for scientists as a tool for paleogeographic and paleogeodynamic reconstructions. An analysis of changes in the Early Cambrian biota taxonomic diversity allowed us to reveal two major stages in its development: (1) Late Vendian (Tommotian and Atdabanian Stages): spreading of the Siberian biota worldwide; (2) Late Botomian-Toyonian Stages: an increase in the degree of endemism, extinction of archeocyaths, reduction in organogenic structures, deposition of black shales, and flourishing of trilobites. A permanent increase in the degree of biota endemism, which reached its maximum in the Botomian Stage, and the first appearance of migrants at the generic and species level at the same time, coincided with the first major transgressive phases. The study of the geographic distribution of diverse groups of the Early Cambrian fauna and calcareous algae of the Siberian basin allowed us to identify a number of biofacies of different age, whose boundaries do not coincide. The evolution and change in the taxonomic composition of the Siberian basin biota were affected by events of the first (Salair) phase of the Caledonian orogeny, manifested in the Altai-Sayan region much earlier than in other parts of the world and influencing the geological history of the Siberian Platform. These events resulted in the extinction and appearance of some specific groups of the Tommotian fauna in the Siberian Platform.     

ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE PRODUCT OF THREE MEANS OF THREE NORMALEY DISTRIBUTED POPULATIONS

In many environmental applications,such as exposure assessment and risk modelling,the desiredestimate is a random variable computed as the product of three independently distributed randomvariables.These variables may not necessarily have the same mean and variance.The method for findingthe 100(1-α)% confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable has been proposed bysome practitioners as the product of the 100(1-α)% confidence interval of the three means.In this paperwe show that the distribution of the product of three independent normal random variables is not normal.We find the mean and variance of the product distribution.Further,we show that although the meanof the product is equal to the product of the means,the product of the three confidence intervals is nota good approximation of the confidence intervals for the mean of the product variable.The confidenceinterval of the mean of the product variable may be estimated by computer simulation.An algorithmfor estimating the confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable is given.The programimplementing this algorithm is given as an appendix.