Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Risk Assessment of Dike Rings in the Netherlands

Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures.     

Climate finance governance in hazard prone riverine islands in Bangladesh: pathway for promoting climate resilience

Bangladesh is one of the topmost climate vulnerable countries in the world where the riverine island (char) dwellers are the most victims of climate change. Climate finance is perceived as the key instruments to address the issues related to climate change impacts and improve the livelihood resilience of the rural people. This article examines the role of climate finance governance at the vulnerable hazard-prone chars in Bangladesh. Climate finance adaptation governance has been assessed through measuring the climate service intervention, behavioral changes and impacts at the local level. The study reveals that the mechanism of climate finance in Bangladesh is good enough, but implementation is not satisfactory. It also observed that there is a lack of participatory governance for disaster management, and there is no direct contribution of climate finance governance in the village level which causes to fail the existing implementation strategy. The study suggests that a riverine island-based long-term development program should be implemented through ensuring effective monitoring system so that climate finance governance can contribute a lot and improve the food security and livelihood resilience of char dwellers.

     

Reliability analysis of the bearing failure problem considering uncertain stochastic parameters

The consideration of uncertainties plays an increasing role in the design of geotechnical structures. An important procedure in the uncertainty analysis is the reliability assessment whereby the required statistical quantities and distributions are assumed to be known exactly. Due to small sample observations and missing information this is not the case in practical applications and uncertainties in the stochastic parameters themselves have to be considered. In our study we estimate the parameter variation of soil properties by statistical procedures and perform an extended reliability analysis of a shallow foundation considering these uncertainties. We propose a novel approach based on a Taylor series expansion which enables the estimation of the failure probability variation very efficiently.     

Identification of the behavior of sandy soil to static liquefaction and microtomography

In this paper, undrained triaxial compression tests were performed on specimens obtained in Oued Rass sand (Chlef, Algeria). The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of specimen deposition methods, the initial density, and the confining pressure on the undrained behavior of this sand. The test results show that the initial confining pressure and the relative density affected, in a significant manner, the resistance to liquefaction. However, it increases with confining pressure and relative density. The results also show that the specimens prepared by dry deposition method have a greater resistance to liquefaction than those prepared by moist tamping. A nondestructive comparative analysis of the deposits by X-ray microtomography carried out at the granular scale made it possible to characterize more precisely the difference of the obtained structures for the two deposition modes.     

Spatial Scale and Population Assignment Choices in Environmental Justice Analyses1

Environmental justice laws protect certain populations against discriminatory actions that may result from a myriad of enterprises, including transportation activities. Previous environmental equity studies examining the effects of transportation‐engendered externalities have been criticized on several points, including (1) that the choice of a reference population for comparison to the criterion variable may influence the outcome of research results and (2) that the selection and use of inappropriate methodologies intended to identify and characterize populations may foreordain research outcomes. This article examines the potentially confounding effects of selected spatial scale and population assignment strategies as applied to a study of excessive noise levels at a large Midwestern airport, finding that reported outcomes can vary significantly as a function of methodological choices.