Vertical Stacking Statistics of Multi-facies Object-Based Models

Mathematical Geosciences - Equations describing facies proportions and amalgamation ratios are derived for randomly placed objects belonging to two or three foreground facies embedded in a...     

An analytical solution for the probabilistic response of sdof non-linear random systems subjected to variable amplitude cyclic loading

Design for a specific ductile failure mode is assuming a rǒle of increasing importance for earthquake-resistant structures. This necessitates an accurate assessment of the distribution of overstrength in the structure, in order that the predefined failure mode can be realized. Consequently, the variability of the response for a given variability in the salient material properties, such as yield strength for steel structures, should be assessed and accounted for. In this paper an analytical method is proposed for the evaluation of the probability density function of the response of a single-degree-of-freedom hysteretic system with random parameters subject to a variable amplitude cyclic load history. A simple algorithm is derived which may be used to obtain the system response as a function of the system parameters. This response function may then be used to evaluate the displacement response probability density function when given the probability density function of the system parameters. Results derived from this procedure are verified against Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that accurate response statistics are obtained at a fraction of the computing cost of simulation techniques.     

Calibrating fault seal using a hydrocarbon migration model of the Oseberg Syd area,Viking Graben

It is widely acknowledged that fault rock capillary properties are important in controlling the distribution of hydrocarbons in sedimentary basins, and methods exist for predicting the capillary seal capacity of prospect bounding faults. However, fault seal capacity is rarely incorporated into models of hydrocarbon migration. This paper presents the results of migration modelling of the Oseberg Syd area of the Viking Graben incorporating fault rock capillary properties. Seal capacity is calculated in the model as a function of Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR), i.e. the percentage shale in the sequence moved past a point on a fault. Over 3000 model realisations were run for different SGR to fault seal capacity relationships and the calculated hydrocarbon distributions were compared with known distributions. Realisations were ranked according to the closeness of fit between model and actual oil–water contacts for 7 traps. The best-fit to all 7 traps was provided by realisations with significant seal capacity at SGR values greater than ca. 0.2; a value which is in agreement with an independently derived fault-by-fault calibration between SGR and seal capacity. The level of fill calculated for an individual trap is extremely sensitive to minor changes in the seal capacity relationship because it is controlled not only by the seal capacities of the faults that bound the trap, but also by the pattern of fill–spill of upstream traps. This sensitivity to minor changes in seal capacity introduces large uncertainties when fault seal capacity relationships are used in a predictive mode and emphasises the requirement for migration modelling in fault seal prospect evaluation.