连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

Matlab遗传算法工具GUI率定马斯京根模型参数

本文针对传统及改进马斯京根洪水演算模型,利用简单易行的Matlab遗传算法工具(gatool)GUI进行模型参数最优估计,获得不同优化准则下的模型参数,并进行检验.结果表明用Matlab遗传算法工具GUI优选改进后的马斯京根模型参数,收敛能力强、计算时间短、所得演算流量更接近实际.     

南极普里兹湾气旋的生消发展

利用1989～2000年现场观测的气象资料,特别是自1997年以来在南极考察船上接收的NOAA卫星极轨高分辨的卫星云图,研究了普里兹湾气旋的生消发展;提出了夏季绕极气旋进入普里兹湾内也会发展加强,在湾内东风带里也能生成气旋的新观点,修正了普里兹湾仅是气旋墓地的不全面说法,从而进一步完善了南极西风带绕极气旋和东风带上气旋生消发展的理论;研究了普里兹湾冰-气-海相互作用的机理,解释了气旋发生、发展的物理过程.用整体动力学输送法计算了进入普里兹湾980205号绕极气旋爆发性发展的能量交换,指出气旋在超过冰坝进入冰间湖可以获得巨大的热量,使气旋迅速发展成为具有南极特色的强风暴,风力达12级以上,平均风速为38m/s;瞬时最大风速达100m/s.     

基于PDA的测量机器人自动化网观测软件研究

分析了自动化网观测软件的具体开发过程,介绍了软件系统所实现的主要功能,获得了可靠的观测数据.     

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

煤层气固井声幅测井方法探讨

影响煤层气固井声幅测井的因素较多,如地层软硬变化大、套管内径或壁厚不均、仪器不居中、发射能量不足、接收灵敏度不够等,这些因素的存在将会导致首波丢失、时差曲线产生周波跳跃或波动现象。为提高煤层气固井声幅测井质量,要尽量保证所用仪器外径接近套管内径,以减少无效传播和能量损失,另外需提高仪器的发射能量及接收灵敏度;在自由套管和声波强吸收地层,必须保证自由套管首波不限幅、声波强吸收地层首波不丢失。在现场解释时,一般以＂自由套管＂处的偏转幅度值A为标准,将固井声幅曲线幅度的20%A和40%A作为分界点,评价固井效果。     

On the physical model of earthquake precursor fields and the mechanism of precursors＇timespace distribution──origin and evidences of the strong body earthquake──generating model

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Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.     

吉林伊通盆地莫里青断陷古近系双阳组储集层成岩作用研究

古近系双阳组是在吉林省伊通盆地莫里青断陷中，油气赋存的主要层位,储层主要为湖底扇和扇三角洲的砂体。依据双阳组储层的大量薄片、扫描电镜、粘土矿物分析的资料研究了该储集层的成岩作用。研究结果表明双阳组储集层：成岩作用经历了压实、压溶、胶结、交代和溶解6方面的作用。双储集层中的自生粘土矿物蒙皂石向伊利石转化具有明显的特征：主要演化过程经历了蒙皂石渐变带，第一迅速转化带和第二迅速转化带，相应的成岩作用阶段可划分为早成岩阶段B期、晚成岩阶段A1期和晚成岩阶段A2期。依据在垂向上的成岩变化,建立了莫里青断陷双阳组储集层的成岩作用演化序列。在垂向上成岩作用的类型和强度均存在明显的差异，造成了储层物性的垂向分带。