基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

A novel coupled FDM-DEM modelling method for flexible membrane boundary in laboratory tests

Difficulties are involved in discrete element method (DEM) modelling of the flexible boundary, that is, the membranes covering the soil sample, which can be commonly found in contemporary laboratory soil tests. In this paper, a novel method is proposed wherein the finite difference method (FDM) and DEM are coupled to simulate the rubber membrane and soil body, respectively. Numerical plane strain and triaxial tests, served by the flexible membrane, are implemented and analysed later. The effect of the membrane modulus on the measurement accuracy is considered, with analytical formulae derived to judge the significance of this effect. Based on an analysis of stress-strain responses and the grain rotation field, the mechanical performances produced by the flexible and rigid lateral boundaries are compared for the plane strain test. The results show that (1) the effect of the membrane on the test result becomes more significant at larger strain level because the membrane applies additional lateral confining pressure to the soil body; (2) the tested models reproduce typical stress and volumetric paths for specimens with shear bands; (3) for the plane strain test, the rigid lateral boundary derives a much higher peak strength and larger bulk dilatation, but a similar residual strength, compared with the flexible boundary. The latter produces a more uniform (or ‘diffuse') rotation field and more mobilised local kinematics than does the former. All simulations show that the proposed FDM-DEM coupling method is able to simulate laboratory tests with a flexible boundary membrane.     

建鲤基因组DNA的RAPD分析

用 1 5个随机引物对建鲤基因组DNA进行RAPD分析 ,结果显示 ,建鲤群体内的遗传相似系数为 0 91 81± 0 0 73 8,多态位点比例为 0 41 67,平均杂合度为 0 1 884。表明建鲤种质较纯 ,群体内的遗传变异程度较小。建鲤优良性状产生的分子学基础是等位基因的杂合程度较高     

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CLAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARS IN THE HAI′AN REGION，JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.     

青藏高原隆升的非线性动态有限元仿真研究

根据青藏高原的地质特征建立分析模型，采用3维动态有限元方法，在计算仿真板块速度场的基础上，计算在青藏高原的隆升过程中该地区地壳岩石的等效应力和位移随时间的变化，计算仿真得到的速度场与1998年GPS观测的速度场吻合良好；与过去一贯的假设相反，计算结果反映出地壳应力场不是静态的，而是此起彼伏，不断变化的，应力值最大且变化最剧烈的地区在克什米尔地区、鄂尔多斯地区和鲜水河－小江断裂带，与地震多发区域吻合。     

大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

对青藏东北缘现今块体划分、运动及变形的初步研究

利用2维非连续变形分析方法（DDA），以位移代替围压作为边界约束力，研究青藏东北缘现今块体划分及其运动变形。根据该地区地质构造及地震活动，以GPS点测量位移作为模拟结果约束点，得出了较合理的块体划分模型和随时间演化的主应变分布图，并把应变高值区与近几年来发生的5级以上地震作对比，得出了研究区内地震危险性可能较大的区域。另外，对模拟的甘青块体与阿拉善块体的边缘带断裂左旋运动做了大概计算。     

抽油机悬点投影测量仪

油田抽油机的抽油杆幌动幅度过大，是引起抽油杆断裂的一个重要因素，检测这种幌动幅度是防止抽油杆断裂的一种有效手段。设计了一种基于面阵CCD和普通半导体激光器（LD）测量这种幌动的悬点投影测量方法，通过数字卷积滤波，达到了范围为0－40mm，误差＜0.2mm的技术检测指标。     

Influence of the Choice of Core-Envelope Transition Point on the Binary Merger of Two Main-sequence Components

We have studied the influence of different choices of core-envelope transition point on the final merger of contact binaries with two main-sequence components. A binary of 1.00 + 0.90M⊙ with an initial orbital period of 0.35d is examined. The mass fraction of the primary mixed with the matter of the secondary, qmix, determined by the chosen core-envelope transition point, ranges from 0.04 to 1.00 in our analysis. If as qmix< 0.8, none of the     

中国1∶100万景观生态制图设计

中国1∶100万景观生态图系借鉴国内外传统景观制图方法和制图规范,在遥感、地理信息系统先进技术的支持下,设计研制其制图方法、制图内容、样图和技术流程,同时提出初步的景观分类系统,为今后编制中国1∶100万景观生态图奠定基础。