Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

流动VLBI站氢原子钟的研制与性能测试

氢脉泽是射电天文所必需的频率标准.文中对为流动vLBI站研制的新一代氢脉泽的物理结构特点进行了讨论，包括对腔泡结构、磁屏蔽、原子束光学系统等.同时性能测试表明在80秒到1天之间频率稳定度优于1×10     

ELECTROCHEMICAL CORROSION BEHAVIOR OF STEEL IN THE JUNCTURE AREA OF SEA CLAY AND SAND

Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed.     

Early warning research on salt-alkalization desertification in western Songnen Plain

Desertification is an environmental issue in the world. The salt-alkalization desertification land area formed by both primary and secondary salt-alkalization has extended in a large scale, which has become a significant eco-environmental problem. Based on the characteristics of eco-environment and the situation of desertification in western Songnen plain, this paper reports the analyzes of its formation in background and cause. An early warning system on the salt-alkalization desertification is established and the GIS technology is used to abstract the information of desertification evaluation index. Supported by the integrated technology of the GIS and ANN, the orientation and quantitative result of desertification are gained, which is helpful to the eco-environment protection and resource development in western Songnen Plain.     

在社会发展的层面上认识“数字地球”

 本文讨论了“数字地球”的有关问题。指出“数字地球”是人类社会及其活动在网络空间的延伸和拓展,是信息技术带来的社会发展趋势。关于“数字地球”的讨论不应局限在空间信息技术领域,而应该在社会发展的层面上认识它     

西部调水工程简析

随着我国人口日益增多,经济形势的飞速发展,加快开发西部的任务日趋紧迫和重要。而西部南水北调则是开发西部必须先行的关键性工程。这项工程是从青藏高原怒江、澜沧江、金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河等五大水系调水,穿过巴颜喀拉山入黄,以黄河大柳树枢纽为总灌渠渠首,把水引向内蒙西部,直至新疆东部地区。引水路线跨越西藏、四川、青海、甘肃、内蒙、新疆等地。此项工程调水量约800亿立方米,一旦实现,将使那里沙漠变绿洲,可开发那里东部地区稀少的矿产及其它资源。     

济南市地下水资源现状分析及开发利用建议

本文采用较新的统计资料,对济南市地下水资源的开发利用现状及开采潜力,以行政区划为单元进行了分析论证.针对地下水资源开发利用中存在的环境水文地质问题,提出了开发利用规划和建议.