Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.     

A Study of the hydrogeological environment of the lishan landslide area using resistivity image profiling and borehole data

Resistivity Image Profiling (RIP) surveys was used to develop a lithological and hydrogeological model of the subsurface in the southeastern part of Lishan landslide area of central Taiwan. The bedrock consists of slate in the study area. Based on RIP and rock samples collected from boreholes results, three electrical strata are recognized: colluvium, the shear zone composed of shear gouges and shattered slate, and the undisturbed slate formation. The steep shear zone with resistivity ranging between 100 ~ 260 Ω-m, plays a crucial role in the local hydrogeological environment, because it forms a natural barrier which blocks and retains groundwater flowing down the slope. Groundwater will brim over the barrier when the water level is high. Thus the inclined groundwater table remains stable from long-term monitoring. It strongly indicates that the groundwater recharge is greater than that of discharge. Therefore, the shear zone can provide information about the optimum locations for draining the excess groundwater in-situ for slope stability consideration.

The curved basal surface of the colluvium and the weathered slate can also be discerned from the resistivity variations and boreholes data. A series of circular patterns may associate with the main slope failure which migrated upwards from the lower slope.     

Nitrogen as the carrier gas for helium emission along an active fault in NW Taiwan

Variations of He gas concentration are widely applied in studies devoted to the location of faults and to monitor seismic activities. Up to now, its migration mechanism in soil is not fully understood. A systematic soil gas survey across an active fault in NW Taiwan provides the opportunity to closely examine the mechanism of He migration in the fault zone. Significant spatial and temporal correlations observed between soil N₂ and He gas support the hypothesis that N₂ is the probable carrier gas for He emission in the studied area. Based on N₂/Ar ratios and N₂ isotopic results, the excess soil N₂ in this study is considered to be largely derived from ancient atmospheric air which was dissolved in groundwater. Furthermore, observations rule out the possibility of CO₂ being the dominant carrier gas for He in the studied area based on the C and He isotopic compositions and the relationship between concentrations of these gases. At least two soil gas sources, A and B, can be identified in the studied area. Source A is an abiogenic gas source characterized by excess N₂ and He, and very low O₂ and CO₂ content. Source B, on the other hand, is a mixture of biogenic gas and atmospheric air. The development of the fault system is an important factor affecting the degree of mixture between sources A and B. Therefore, variations of soil gas composition, in particular those derived from source A, could be a useful proxy for tracing faults in the area.     

Investigation of non-linear site amplification at two downhole strong ground motion arrays in Taiwan

Non-linear seismic response of soil is studied by comparing the spectral ratios of surface to downhole horizontal accelerations on weak and strong motion. Data from two boreholes are analysed. One is drilled in the alluvial deposits in the south–west quadrant of the SMART 1 array. The second one penetrates Pleistocene terrace deposits in the northern part of the SMART2 array. Observed weak and strong motion spectral ratios are compared with the theoretical ones predicted by the geotechnical soil model which postulates a hysteretic constitutive law. A significant non-linear response is found at the first site for the events with surface peak acceleration exceeding roughly 0–15g. Deamplification of the strong motion occurred in the frequency range from approximately 1 to 10 Hz. The maximum observed difference between the average weak and strong motion amplification functions of an 11 m-thick near-surface stratum is a factor of 2–3. Nonlinear response characteristics are in qualitative agreement with the model. An additional corollary is that the amplification function calculated from the shear wave coda is equivalent to the average amplification calculated over the ensemble of small earthquakes. No statistically significant non-linear response is detected on the second array, that is tentatively accounted for by the stiffer soil conditions and weaker accelerations achieved at the SMART2 site. The results indicate that the non-linear amplification can be detectable at certain soil conditions above a threshold acceleration level.     

Evaluation of models for Fourier amplitude spectra for the Taiwan region

In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground-motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the M_L=7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake (21 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground-motion parameters (Fourier amplitude spectra, peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the models, and the observed data demonstrates that the models could provide an accurate prediction for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake and the largest aftershocks. However, there are some peculiarities in the ground-motion frequency content and attenuation that, most probably, are caused by the features of the rupture process of the large shallow earthquake source.     

Modeling of the strong ground motion of 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake using modified semi-empirical technique

On 25th April, 2015 a hazardous earthquake of moment magnitude 7.9 occurred in Nepal. Accelerographs were used to record the Nepal earthquake which is installed in the Kumaon region in the Himalayan state of Uttrakhand. The distance of the recorded stations in the Kumaon region from the epicenter of the earthquake is about 420–515 km. Modified semi-empirical technique of modeling finite faults has been used in this paper to simulate strong earthquake at these stations. Source parameters of the Nepal aftershock have been also calculated using the Brune model in the present study which are used in the modeling of the Nepal main shock. The obtained value of the seismic moment and stress drop is 8.26 × 10²⁵ dyn cm and 10.48 bar, respectively, for the aftershock from the Brune model .The simulated earthquake time series were compared with the observed records of the earthquake. The comparison of full waveform and its response spectra has been made to finalize the rupture parameters and its location. The rupture of the earthquake was propagated in the NE–SW direction from the hypocenter with the rupture velocity 3.0 km/s from a distance of 80 km from Kathmandu in NW direction at a depth of 12 km as per compared results.     

Application of Analytical Modeling to the Far-field Investigation of Tsunami and Oceanic Rayleigh Waves from the 1998 Papua New Guinea Earthquake

We analyze far-field Rayleigh and tsunami waves generated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea (PNG) earthquake. Using the normal mode theory and Thomson-Haskell matrix formalism we calculate synthetic mareograms of oceanic surface waves excited by finite-dimensional line source and propagated in a flat, multilayered oceanic structure. Assuming that the source of destructive sea waves was the main shock of the PNG event and based on the expression for seismic wave displacement in the far-field zone, we compute the energy of the seismic and tsunami waves and the E_z /E_ts ratio. The results of our modeling are generally consistent with those obtained empirically for events with magnitude 7. Also, treating the results of a submarine slide as a single solitary wave and using the theoretical arguments of Striem and Miloh (1976) we estimate the energy of the tsunami induced by a landslide. The difference between the energy of the seismic tsunami and of the aseismic one is about one order of magnitude.The results of our theoretical modeling show that surface sea waves in the far-field zone account well for seismic origin, although additional tsunami energy from a landslide source could be required to explain the local massive tsunami in the Sissano Lagoon.     

High frequency site amplification evaluated from Borehole data in the Taipei Basin

Based on the quarter-wavelength approximation, the frequency-dependent site amplifications, A(f ), at 18 free-field strong-motion stations in and near the Taipei Basin are evaluated from well-logging data. The V ₃₀, which is the average of the S-wave velocities in the topmost 30 m, is a significant factor in classifying the sites. Results show that the site amplifications at all sites in study are larger than 1 and functions of frequency. Compared with the Haskell method, the quarter-wavelength approximation is almost an average and a good representation of overall amplifications. It is noted that the site amplifications evaluated in this study can apply only to frequencies greater than about 1.1 Hz for class C sites and 3.1 Hz for class D.     

Source,path and site effects on dominant frequency and spatial variation of strong ground motion recorded by smart1 and smart2 arrays in Taiwan

The reduction in spatial variance of strong ground motion with increasing earthquake magnitude has been reported recently. However, we show that the observed dependence of spatial variance on magnitude is its implicit dependence on the frequency content (dominant frequency) of the wave field. Time-domain cross-correlations of pairs of accelerograms are used to quantify the spatial variations in this paper. Magnitude is one of the factors contributing to the dominant frequency. We attempt to study separately the effects of magnitude, hypocentral distance, peak ground acceleration and focal depth on the dominant frequency in order to find the most significant one. The data base consists of 1965 records of horizontal acceleration from 148 local earthquakes in Taiwan. The analysis shows the overwhelming effect of the source magnitude on the formation of the dominant frequency with an empirical relationship: No significant effect of hypocentral distance, local acceleration amplitude or depth is detected for all their values available (up to 170 km, 250 cm/s², and 100 km, respectively). The prevailing effect of magnitude on the dominant frequency is a real cause of the consistently observed reduction of spatial variance of ground motion with increasing magnitude of earthquakes.     

Statistical approach to earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility

Susceptibility analysis for predicting earthquake-induced landslides has most frequently been done using deterministic methods; multivariate statistical methods have not previously been applied. In this study, however, we introduce a statistical methodology that uses the intensity of earthquake shaking as a landslide triggering factor. This methodology is applied in a study of shallow earthquake-induced landslides in central western Taiwan. The results show that we can accurately interpret landslide distribution in the study area and predict the occurrence of landslides in neighboring regions. This susceptibility model is capable of predicting shallow landslides induced during an earthquake scenario with similar range of ground shaking, without requiring the use of geotechnical, groundwater or failure depth data.