Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Young pumice deposits on Nisyros,Greece

The island of Nisyros (Aegean Sea) consists of a silicic volcanic sequence upon a base of mafic-andesitic hyaloclastites, lava flows, and breccias. We distinguish two young silicic eruptive cycles each consisting of an explosive phase followed by effusions, and an older silicic complex with major pyroclastic deposits. The caldera that formed after the last plinian eruption is partially filled with dacitic domes. Each of the two youngest plinian pumice falls has an approximate DRE volume of 2–3 km³ and calculated eruption column heights of about 15–20 km. The youngest pumice unit is a fall-surge-flow-surge sequence. Laterally transitional fall and surge facies, as well as distinct polymodal grainsize distributions in the basal fall layer, indicate coeval deposition from a maintained plume and surges. Planar-bedded pumice units on top of the fall layer were deposited from high-energy, dry-steam propelled surges and grade laterally into cross-bedded, finegrained surge deposits. The change from a fall-to a surge/flow-dominated depositional regime coincided with a trend from low-temperature argillitic lithics to high-temperature, epidote-and diopside-bearing lithic clasts, indicating the break-up of a high-temperature geothermal reservoir after the plinian phase. The transition from a maintained plume to a surge/ash flow depositional regime occurred most likely during break-up of the high-temperature geothermal reservoir during chaotic caldera collapse. The upper surge units were possibly erupted through the newly formed ringfracture.     

Carbon sources in arc volcanism, with implications for the carbon cycle

New CO₂/³ He data from the East Sunda Arc (Indonesia) confirm earlier observations that arc volcanic gases have higher CO₂/³ He ratios than MOR environments.On average, > 80% of arc volcanic CO₂ is recycled, exogene carbon. Addition of a few percent of carbonate-bearing sediments to the mantle wedge explains much of the carbon abundance andcarbon isotopic data of arc gases, but can not explain the He isotope observations. The CO₂/³He in arc volcanoes is not strongly dependent on the composition of modem trough sediments (e.g. deep sea clays vs carbonate-rich sequences), and calcite veins in the hydrothermally altered subducted slab may provide a contribution to the recycled carbon flux of, arcs. The sum of globally deep-subducted sediment and slab carbon exceeds the estimated arc CO₂ flux, and approximately 3.5 teramole of carbon may return annually to the mantle in convergent zones. The modem combined processes of MOR volcanism, slab alteration, and subduction volcanism do not produce a substantial carbon flux into the exosphere, and rate-changes in ocean floor spreading are unlikely to cause major changes in atmospheric CO₂ as a result of changes in the volcanic CO₂ fluxes. Intense pulses of flood basalt volcanism, however, may alter the CO₂ contents of the atmosphere over the course of a millenium or so, and influence global climate.     

Paleomagnetism and ore mineralogy of some basalts of the Geirud Formation of Late Devonian - Early Carboniferous age from the southern Alborz,Iran

Basaltic lavas from the southern Alborz, an area about 40 km northeast of Tehran, Iran, have been paleomagnetically investigated. The lavas are of Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous age, and belong to the basal member of the Geirud Formation. At 11 sites a total of 80 cores was drilled.Detailed analyses by means of progressive demagnetization of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) were made both by the application of alternating magnetic fields and by heating. Also, on a number of specimens a study was done both with thin sections and with polished sections. There proved to be general agreement between the properties of the characteristic NRM and the kind of Fe-Ti oxides in the lavas. In the case of specimens containing magnetite only the characteristic NRM was entirely removed at temperatures just below 600°C, or in alternating fields up to 1500/2000 Oe peak value; on the other hand, in specimens containing both magnetite and a substantial part of hematite (martite) the final part of the characteristic remanence was removed at temperatures above 600°C, and this remanence resisted alternating fields above 2000 Oe peak value. From the characteristic site-mean directions of 5 sites an average paleomagnetic direction is computed withD = 210.8°,I = 66.9°, and α₉₅ = 3.9°.This result might be taken as an indication that at the Devono-Carboniferous transition the southern part of the Alborz was located in the present Indian Ocean off the Arabian coast.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Relative sea-level rise and climate change over the last 1500 years

We constructed a detailed relative sea-level rise curve for the last 1500 years using a novel approach, i.e. charting the rate of relative sea-level rise using microfaunal and geochemical data from a coastal salt marsh sequence (Clinton, CT, USA). The composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the iron abundance in peats were used to describe shifts in marsh environment through time quantitatively. The resulting sea-level rise curve, with age control from ¹⁴C dating and the onset of anthropogenic metal pollution, shows strong increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise during modern global warming (since the late nineteenth century), but not during the Little Climate Optimum (ad 1000–1300). There was virtually no rise in sea-level during the Little Ice Age (ad 1400–1700). Most of the relative sea-level rise over the last 1200 years in Clinton appears to have occurred during two warm episodes that jointly lasted less than 600 years. Changes from slow to fast rates of relative sea-level rise apparently occurred over periods of only a few decades. We suggest that changes in ocean circulation could contribute to the sudden increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise along the northeastern USA seaboard. Relative sea-level rise in that area is currently faster than the worldwide average, which may result partially from an ocean surface effect caused by hydrodynamics. Our data show no unequivocal correlation between warm periods (on a decaal to centennial time-scale) and accelerated sea-level rise. One period of acclerated sea-level rise may have occurred between about ad 1200 and 1450, which was the transition for the Little Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age, i.e. a period of cooling (at least in northwestern Europe). Local changes in tidal range might also have contributed to this apparent increase in the rate of relative sea-level, however. The second period of accelerated sea-level rise occurred during the period of modern global warming that started at the end of the last century.     

The volcanic acidification of glacial Lake Caviahue,Province of Neuquen,Argentina

Lake Caviahue (northern Patagonia, Argentina) is a large glacial lake acidified by volcanic fluids from Copahue volcano. The lake and the feeding rivers were sampled annually from 1997 till early 2006, including the eruptive period of 2000. Lake Caviahue waters evolved over time, with the most concentrated waters in 2000 during the eruptive period, followed by gradual dilution that was interrupted by renewed acidification in 2003–2004. Inversion of the lake water data and application of a dynamic non-steady state model for the lake provides our best quantitative estimates for the variation in element fluxes over the 9-year period. The model flux results agree well with most of the measured fluxes. The Copahue hydrothermal system had gently declining element fluxes between 1997 and mid-1999, although the lake was still becoming more concentrated. About 2–3 months before the 2000 eruption, element fluxes increased strongly, but the hydrothermal fluxes almost shutoff directly after the main eruptive events. The fluxes of several elements recovered post-2001, with an increase in element fluxes in 2003–2004; the lake became more dilute between 2004 and 2006. The intrusion of new magma into the hydrothermal system just prior to the 2000 eruption led to enhanced water rock interaction, with higher concentrations of the rock forming elements in the fluids, and the hot spring flow rate increased as a result of the higher pressure in the reservoir. The fluids became saturated in alunite and jarosite, and they were already saturated with anhydrite. Precipitation of these minerals possibly led to a decreased permeability of the hydrothermal reservoir, leading to the strongly reduced element fluxes just after the eruption. In addition, K, Al and S were retained in the newly precipitated minerals as well, further diminishing their export. The acidification in 2003–2004 may have resulted from a new small intrusion of magma or resulted from seismic activity that created new permeability and fresh rock surfaces for water rock interaction. The volcano is a significant source of toxic trace elements such as F, As, B and Li as well as a nutrient (P) for the local watershed. Monitoring of the hydrothermal fluids in the river that drains Copahue, especially the S/Cl, Mg/Cl and Mg/K values as well as the magnitude of the element fluxes would provide the best information for eruption forecasting for this volcano.     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.