Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

The “suevite” conundrum,Part 1: The Ries suevite and Sudbury Onaping Formation compared

The term “suevite” has been applied to various impact melt‐bearing breccias found in different stratigraphic settings within terrestrial impact craters. Suevite was coined initially for impact glass‐bearing breccias from the Ries impact structure, Germany, which is the type locality. Various working hypotheses have been proposed to account for the formation of the Ries suevite deposits over the past several decades, with the most recent being molten‐fuel‐coolant interaction (MFCI) between an impact melt pool and water. This mechanism is also the working hypothesis for the origin of the bulk of the Onaping Formation at the Sudbury impact structure, Canada. In this study, the key characteristics of the Ries suevite, the Onaping Formation and MFCI deposits from phreatomagmatic volcanic eruptions are compared. The conclusion is that there are clear and significant lithological, stratigraphic, and petrographic observational differences between the Onaping Formation and the Ries suevite. The Onaping Formation, however, shares many key similarities with MFCI deposits, including the presence of layering, their well‐sorted and fine‐grained nature, and the predominance of vitric particles with similar shapes and lacking included mineral and lithic clasts. These differences argue against the viability of MFCI as a working hypothesis for genesis of the Ries suevite and for a required alternative mechanism for its formation.     

Fish Interactions with a Commercial-Scale Tidal Energy Device in the Natural Environment

Fish are a key part of the marine ecosystem likely to be affected by hydrokinetic tidal turbines, but little is known about their behavior around such obstacles in the natural environment. In September 2010, two DIDSON acoustic cameras were used to observe fish interactions with a commercial-scale turbine in Cobscook Bay, Maine. Twenty-two hours (nearly two tidal cycles) of footage were collected. Behaviors of individual fish and schools were classified (e.g., entering, avoiding, passing, or remaining in the wake of the turbine). We analyzed the effects of turbine motion (rotating or not rotating), diel condition (day or night), and fish size (small, ≤10 cm; large, >10 cm) on individual fish behaviors, and compared behaviors of individual fish to schools of fish. When the turbine was rotating, the probability of fish entering the turbine decreased by over 35 % from when it was not. The probability that fish would enter the turbine was higher at night than during the day, and this difference was greater for small fish than for large fish (probability of small fish entering?=?0.147 day, 0.513 night; large fish?=?0.043 day, 0.333 night). Fish were almost always present in the wake of the turbine. Schools of fish had a 56 % lower probability of entering the turbine than individual fish, and reacted at greater distances from the turbine (median distance of 2.5 m for schools, 1.7 m for individuals). This study indicates that fish behavior in response to tidal turbines appears to be similar to responses to obstacles such as trawls, and highlights the importance of environmental context in determining the effects of a tidal turbine on fish.     

Mitigation of lunar dust adhesion by surface modification

Dust has been recognized as one of the greatest hazards in continued lunar exploration due to its tenacious adhesion to everything with which it comes into contact. Unfortunately, there is little known about the mechanisms of adhesion on widely varying surface types: van der Waals and electrostatic forces are the dominant forces under consideration here. Surface energy, roughness, mechanical properties and electronic properties are all known to contribute to the adhesion characteristics. An optimal solution to mitigate dust adhesion would be to identify the dominant components of the adhesive force and to reduce that force by surface modification. In this study, an ion beam process was used to modify (treat) the surfaces of three dramatically different materials spanning the range of conductor (black Kapton), semiconductor (silicon), and insulator (quartz). Adhesive forces between less than JSC-1 lunar simulants and these virgin/treated surfaces were measured in vacuum using a centrifugal force detachment method. We found that JSC-1 particles adhered less to treated silicon and quartz surfaces, correlated with a reduction in van der Waals force due to a reduced surface energy. The large reduction in adhesion for treated black Kapton is mainly due to the large decrease in the electrostatic (image) force that results from reduced contact charging. Materials in space and on the lunar surface will be directly exposed to high-energy ultraviolet radiation prior to being covered by dust, so the UV irradiation effects on surface adhesion were also examined. Both virgin and treated quartz surfaces are most affected by the UV-irradiation, showing dramatically increased adhesion.     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

Rare earth elements in pore waters of marine sediments

The rare earth elements (REEs) were measured in pore waters of the upper ∼25 cm of sediment from one site off Peru and three sites on the California margin. The pore water REE concentrations are higher than sea water and show systematic down core variations in both concentration and normalized pattern. From these analyses and from comparison to other chemical species measured (dissolved Fe, Mn, Ba, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate), it is suggested that pore water REEs can be grouped into three categories: those that are from an Fe-source, those that are from a POC-source, and cerium oxide. REEs from the Fe-source appear where anoxia is reached; they have a distinctive “middle-REE (MREE) enriched” pattern. The concentrations in this source are so elevated that they dominate REE trends in the Fe-oxide reduction zone. The net result of flux from the POC-source is relative enrichment of heavy-REEs (HREEs) over light-REEs (LREEs), reflecting remineralizing POC and complexation with DOC. A common “linear” REE pattern, seen in both oxic and anoxic sediments, is associated with this POC-source, as well as a “HREE enriched” pattern that is seen in surficial sediments at the Peru site. Overall, the pore water results indicate that Mn-oxides are not an important carrier of REEs in the oceans.A REE biogeochemical model is presented which attempts to reconcile REE behavior in the water and sediment columns of the oceans. The model proposes that POC, Fe-oxide and Ce-oxide sources can explain the REE concentration profiles and relative abundance patterns in environments ranging from oxic sea water to anoxic pore water. The model is also consistent with our observation that the “Ce-anomaly” of pore water does not exceed unity under any redox condition.