Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.     

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕     

桐柏─大别山北麓金矿带地质物化探找矿模型

从桐柏─大别山成矿带区域地质、地球物理、地球化学特征的研究入手，分析与金成矿有关的地层、构造、岩浆岩等控矿因素的地球物理场及地球化学特征；建立区域金矿找矿模型。     

洛坝铅锌矿床的构造演化分析

洛坝铅锌矿床位于黄诸关韧脆性变形带所波及的范围内,断裂、褶皱、劈理、节理等形态构造类型均很发育,经对小型构造的统计及应力场分析证明,矿区变形主要是在海西—印支期长期存在的南北向古应力场持续作用下形成的。     

描述地壳垂直运动过程的一种函数形式

本文在已有数据处理方法的基础上，利用近代数值逼近理论，给出了从时空域角度描述地壳垂直运动过程的一种具体的函数解析形式。最后给出了一个实际算例。     

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果     

Seasonal and annual variation of CO2 flux above a broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest

Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO₂ profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of F _NEE, F _GPP and R _E; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO₂ uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.

L_AI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of F_GPP and R_E separately. V_PD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.

The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO₂ and sequestered −449 g C·m⁻² during the study period; −278 and −171 gC·m⁻² for 2003 and 2004 respectively. F _GPP and F _RE over 2003 and 2004 were −1332, −1294 g C·m⁻². and 1054, 1124 g C·m⁻² respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO₂.

There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO₂. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of F _GPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of R _E of the entire year.

     

BACKGROUND STUDY ON NON-RESIDUAL PHASE OF ELEMENTS IN CHANGJIANG AND HUANGHE ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS

Analysis of Zn, Cu, Pb, Co, Cr, Li, Ni, K, Al, Fe extracted by 1 mol/L HCl or 0.5 mol/LHCl/H_2O_2, showed concentrations of Zn, Cu, Pb, Co, Cr, Fe, Ni were significantly correlated with Li, Al,K, and clay. Two methods are used to indicate the background value of the non-residual phase of elementsin sediments, and are the same as the methods used to indicate the background value of totalconcentrations in sediments. The first method uses correlograms and regression equations,the second usesthe mean element concentrations normalized with grain size. Li, Al, K can be used as reference elements to determine the background value of Zn, Cu, Pb, Co,Cr, Ni, Fe, while the clay concentration's correlation with some extractable concentrations can be used tocalculate the background value of the non-residual phase of elements as a percentage of clay concentrationin the sediments. Based on this study, the concept of using the background value of the non-residualphase of elements to compare the pollution level in differ