Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.     

Strong variation in weathering of layered rock maintains hillslope‐scale strength under high precipitation

The evolution of volcanic landscapes and their landslide potential are both dependent upon the weathering of layered volcanic rock sequences. We characterize critical zone structure using shallow seismic V_p and V_s profiles and vertical exposures of rock across a basaltic climosequence on Kohala peninsula, Hawai’i, and exploit the dramatic gradient in mean annual precipitation (MAP) across the peninsula as a proxy for weathering intensity. Seismic velocity increases rapidly with depth and the velocity–depth gradient is uniform across three sites with 500–600 mm/yr MAP, where the transition to unaltered bedrock occurs at a depth of 4 to 10 m. In contrast, velocity increases with depth less rapidly at wetter sites, but this gradient remains constant across increasing MAP from 1000 to 3000 mm/yr and the transition to unaltered bedrock is near the maximum depth of investigation (15–25 m). In detail, the profiles of seismic velocity and of weathering at wet sites are nowhere monotonic functions of depth. The uniform average velocity gradient and the greater depths of low velocities may be explained by the averaging of velocities over intercalated highly weathered sites with less weathered layers at sites where MAP > 1000 mm/yr. Hence, the main effect of climate is not the progressive deepening of a near‐surface altered layer, but rather the rapid weathering of high permeability zones within rock subjected to precipitation greater than ~1000 mm/yr. Although weathering suggests mechanical weakening, the nearly horizontal orientation of alternating weathered and unweathered horizons with respect to topography also plays a role in the slope stability of these heterogeneous rock masses. We speculate that where steep, rapidly evolving hillslopes exist, the sub‐horizontal orientation of weak/strong horizons allows such sites to remain nearly as strong as their less weathered counterparts at drier sites, as is exemplified by the 50°–60° slopes maintained in the amphitheater canyons on the northwest flank of the island. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Basal‐topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide

The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground‐based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60‐ to 61‐year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60–300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring‐fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61‐year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Erratum to: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.     

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.     

Initiation conditions for debris flows generated by runoff at Chalk Cliffs, central Colorado

We have monitored initiation conditions for six debris flows between May 2004 and July 2006 in a 0.3 km² drainage basin at Chalk Cliffs; a band of hydrothermally-altered quartz monzonite in central Colorado. Debris flows were initiated by water runoff from colluvium and bedrock that entrained sediment from rills and channels with slopes ranging from about 14° to 45°. The availability of channel material is essentially unlimited because of thick channel fill and refilling following debris flows by rock fall and dry ravel processes. Rainfall exceeding I = 6.61(D)^− 0.77, where I is rainfall intensity (mm/h), and D is duration (h), was required for the initiation of debris flows in the drainage basin. The approximate minimum runoff discharge from the surface of bedrock required to initiate debris flows in the channels was 0.15 m³/s. Colluvium in the basin was unsaturated immediately prior to (antecedent) and during debris flows. Antecedent, volumetric moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 4–9%, and 4–7%, respectively. During debris flows, peak moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 10–20%, and 4–12%, respectively. Channel sediment at a depth of 45 cm was unsaturated before and during debris flows; antecedent moisture ranged from 20–22%, and peak moisture ranged from 24–38%. Although we have no measurements from shallow rill or channel sediment, we infer that it was unsaturated before debris flows, and saturated by surface-water runoff during debris flows.Our results allow us to make the following general statements with regard to debris flows generated by runoff in semi-arid to arid mountainous regions: 1) high antecedent moisture levels in hillslope and channel sediment are not required for the initiation of debris flows by runoff, 2) locations of entrainment of sediment by successive runoff events can vary within a basin as a function of variations in the thickness of existing channel fill and the rate of replenishment of channel fill by rock fall and dry ravel processes following debris flows, and 3) rainfall and simulated surface-water discharge thresholds can be useful in understanding and predicting debris flows generated by runoff and sediment entrainment.     

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle,Washington, USA

Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfall data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field‐monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity–duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.