Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Improved magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic lithosphere from satellite and near-surface data

The Antarctic magnetic anomaly map compiled marine and airborne surveys collected south of 60°S through 1999 and used Magsat data to help fill in the regional gaps between the surveys. Ørsted and CHAMP satellite magnetic observations with greatly improved measurement accuracies and temporal and spatial coverage of the Antarctic, have now supplanted the Magsat data. We combined the new satellite observations with the near-surface survey data for an improved magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic lithosphere. Specifically, we separated the crustal from the core and external field components in the satellite data using crustal thickness variations estimated from the terrain and the satellite-derived free-air gravity observations. Regional gaps in the near-surface surveys were then filled with predictions from crustal magnetization models that jointly satisfied the near-surface and satellite crustal anomalies. Comparisons in some of the regional gaps that also considered newly acquired aeromagnetic data demonstrated the enhanced anomaly estimation capabilities of the predictions over those from conventional minimum curvature and spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models. We also noted that the growing number of regional and world magnetic survey compilations involve coverage gaps where these procedures can contribute effective near-surface crustal anomaly estimates.     

Solar dynamo theory: a new look at the origin of small-scale magnetic fields

Fausto Cattaneo and David W Hughes delve beneath the surface of the Sun with numerical models of turbulent convection.
Although magnetic dynamo action is traditionally associated with rotation, fast dynamo theory shows that chaotic flows, even without rotation, can act as efficient small-scale dynamos. Indeed, numerical simulations suggest that granular and supergranular convection may generate locally a substantial part of the field in the quiet photosphere.     

Improvement of Nakamura technique by singular spectrum analysis

In this work we investigate the application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis to improve Nakamura Technique. The SSA has a wide and multidisciplinary range of applications; it allows a time series to be decomposed into different components, e.g. the signal itself, as well as various noise components, which can be subsequently removed from the data. Removal of the minor component of the data can lead to significant improvements in the identification of the system. In this paper the use of SSA Technique allows to optimize the signal to noise ratio before computing the classical Nakamura spectral ratios. A number of typical applications are also presented.     

Microlevelling procedures applied to regional aeromagnetic data: an example from the Transantarctic Mountains (Antarctica)

The extensive application of digital enhancement and filtering as a powerful tool for aeromagnetic interpretation, not only of high resolution but also of regional data, requires an improved levelling. Two microlevelling techniques were thus compared in order to find an effective but relatively simple procedure to remove, or at least to reduce, residual magnetic errors remaining after standard levelling processes. This study was carried out on regional aeromagnetic data recently acquired at high magnetic latitudes along the Transantarctic Mountains in Antarctica, where it is particularly critical to remove time-dependent magnetic variations. Two-dimensional FFT filters applied to the gridded data, namely the Butterworth and a directional cosine filter, proved to be more effective than previously proposed one-dimensional space-domain filters in the reduction of the 'residual corrugation' not removed by statistical levelling. Tectonic interpretation of trends detected in the total field magnetic anomaly map and in the 3D analytic signal improved after application of frequency-domain microlevelling. However, we also show that when interpreting microlevelled data, two factors must be considered: (i) the possible presence of real geological trends aligned along the flight lines; (ii) modifications in the results yielded by depth estimates of magnetic sources due to the FFT filters applied during the microlevelling procedure. Such changes were seen both in the well-established 2D FFT method, based on the slope of the energy spectrum, and in the more recent 3D Euler deconvolution technique. Overall our results indicate that microlevelling could profitably be applied to older gridded aeromagnetic data sets in Antarctica, thus improving the accuracy and geological significance of future regional magnetic compilations, as already seen in other continents.     

Modelling the non‐linear hydrological behaviour of a small Mediterranean forested catchment

A progressive perceptual understanding approach was used to identify a model structure able to represent the non‐linear behaviour of the hydrological cycle in a small intermittent Mediterranean stream. The initial lumped model structure consisting of a series of four connected water tanks (LU3) progressed to a model with five tanks (LU4), and finally to a semidistributed model structure (SD4) in which spatial variability of the evapotranspiration according to the vegetation cover and to the local aspect was considered. In the final model structure, which gave the best fit (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index = 0·78), an additional tank representing the riparian zone was included (SD4‐R). Results showed that the abrupt changes of the riparian water table during summer and the formation of a perched water table during the transition from dry to wet conditions were the main mechanisms leading to the non‐linear hydrological behaviour. The transpiration process from the saturated zone and the spatial variability of evapotranspiration resulted in key factors successfully representing the annual water balance. The spatial and temporal validations carried out for each of the four model structures considered in this study supported the hypothesis adopted during the calibration process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perovskite alteration in kimberlites and carbonatites: the role of kassite,CaTi2O4(OH)2

A microbeam (electron microprobe, X-ray diffraction and Raman) study of pseudomorphs after magmatic perovskite from kimberlite (Iron Hill, Wyoming, USA) and carbonatite (Prairie Lake, Ontario, Canada) showed that the early product of perovskite replacement in these samples is kassite, a monoclinic (space group P2₁/a) polymorph of CaTi₂O₄(OH)₂. This mineral can be readily distinguished from its dimorph cafetite (space group P2₁/n) based on the presence of strong signals at ~120, 300, 330, 450, 470 and 690 cm^?1, and the absence or very low intensity of signals at ~250, 420, 600, 800 and 825 cm^?1 in its Raman spectrum. The strongest X-ray diffraction lines, measured for the Prairie Lake material, are [d _obs in Å (I) hkl]: ~3.29 (100) 022; 112, \( {\mathrm{11}}{\overline 2} \) ; 1.764 (61) \( {\mathrm{13}}{\overline 4} \) ; 2.284 (45) 132; 2.601 (24) 130; 2.050 (17) 222; 4.81 (16) 002; 2.034 (15) 042; 2.308 (14) 202; 1.778 (14) \( {\mathrm{20}}{\overline 4} \) . Diffraction lines at 3.60, 2.99, 2.79, 2.57, 2.56 and 1.91 Å, characteristic of cafetite, are not observed. The electron-microprobe analyses of kassite give formulae close to the stoichiometric composition. Progressive Ca leaching leads to replacement of kassite by anatase + calcite, which are also commonly observed as direct products of perovskite alteration in silica-undersaturated igneous rocks. Raman spectroscopy is the fastest and most reliable technique to identify submicroscopic anatase–calcite intergrowths that can be easily mistaken for kassite (cafetite) based on electron-microprobe data. Thermodynamic calculations indicate that conversion of perovskite into kassite and, subsequently, anatase requires initially high levels of f(H₂O) in the system, followed by an increase in f(CO₂) at either decreasing or constant T and f(H₂O). The implications of perovskite–kassite–anatase phase relations for deciphering the late-stage evolution of kimberlites and carbonatites are discussed.     

What is a flux tube? On the magnetic field topology of buoyant flux structures

We study the topology of field lines threading buoyant magnetic flux structures. The magnetic structures, visually resembling idealized magnetic flux tubes, are generated self-consistently by numerical simulation of the interaction of magnetic buoyancy and a localized velocity shear in a stably stratified atmosphere. Depending on the parameters, the system exhibits varying degrees of symmetry. By integrating along magnetic field lines and constructing return maps, we show that, depending on the type of underlying behaviour, the stages of the evolution, and therefore the degree of symmetry, the resulting magnetic structures can have field lines with one of three distinct topologies. When the x -translational and y -reflectional symmetries remain intact, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces but individual lines do not cover the surface. When the y symmetry is broken, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces and individual lines do cover the surface. When both x and y symmetries are broken, magnetic field lines wander chaotically over a large volume of the magnetically active region. We discuss how these results impact our simple ideas of a magnetic flux tube as an object with an inside and an outside, and introduce the concept of 'leaky' tubes.     

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10  years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.