Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Multi-wavelength Diagnostics of Bombardment by Non-thermal Particles in Solar Flares

Chromospheric lines, including Ha, Lyα, Lyβand CaⅡK, CaⅡ8542, are systemically and quantitatively investigated with respect to the non-thermal excitation and ionization due to particle beam bombardment for a series of solar semi-empirical atmospheric models. As a result we propose to use the contrast in the integrated intensity of hydrogen lines to estimate the total energy flux of the bombarding beam during the solar flare impulsive phase. Partial frequency redistribution is considered in the Lyαline calculation and a smaller intensity enhancement in the Ha line-centers is found than in the previous results of Fang et al.     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

关于国有地了企业经营者实行年薪制的构想

为建立社会主义市场经济的地矿工作新秩序，本文对国有地矿企业的经营者（厂长、经理）这一特殊群体进行了分析。着重研究了新形势下企业经营者实行年薪制的问题。指出年薪制就是以企业一个生产经营周期为单位确定经营者的报酬，这一周期通常为一年。进而阐述了为什么要实行企业经营者年薪制；企业经营者的收入应与职工工资完全脱钩；采用基础报酬加效益报酬的方法确定收入等等。并构想了实行经营者年薪制所需要的外部环境：建立经营者人才市场、经营者要能进能出、实行任职资格制度、建立风险机制、按劳动力市场经济规律办事。     

ELECTROCHEMICAL CORROSION BEHAVIOR OF STEEL IN THE JUNCTURE AREA OF SEA CLAY AND SAND

Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed.     

从ROSAT数据中寻找河内X射线暂现源

从ＲＯＳＡＴ巡天和定点观测结果的对比出发，发现了几个低银纬的巡天源表中的Ｘ射线源在定点观测中没有出现．本文计算了在这些位置的定点观测中出现点源的流强上限，发现比巡天源表中这些源的流强值低很多，这表明它们的流强变化很大，可能是Ｘ射线双星系统中的一类———Ｘ射线暂现源．     

巴颜喀拉山东段及其邻区大地电磁测深成果地质解释

本文主要依据青海省囊歉至大河坝大地电磁测深成果,并结合重力资料对巴颜喀拉及南北两侧地区的壳幔结构进行了地质解释。指出了该区壳幔存在4个明显的低阻层,并简述了它们的形态特征,推断了其地质含意。认为昆中断裂带与昆南断裂带间是一个巨大的构造混杂岩带,影响深度亦很大。推断该区可能存在太古代地层。划出了8条壳幔断裂带,认为昆中断裂应是塔里木—华北板块与华南板块的分界线。     

在社会发展的层面上认识“数字地球”

 本文讨论了“数字地球”的有关问题。指出“数字地球”是人类社会及其活动在网络空间的延伸和拓展,是信息技术带来的社会发展趋势。关于“数字地球”的讨论不应局限在空间信息技术领域,而应该在社会发展的层面上认识它