How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.     

Evaluating rock mass geometry from photographic images

Summary The importance of discontinuities in controlling rock mass behaviour in any engineering project involving excavations calls for a sound and spatial characterization of the discontinuity structure present. Such a characterization necessitates field work that requires sufficient rock exposures in order to obtain an adequate number of data, time and considerable cost. Photoanalysis techniques can help in overcoming the above difficulties equally well or better than other techniques. This paper refers to simple photographic techniques and their implementation for computer aided analyses for the characterization of the rock mass fracturing features. In particular attention is focused on scale problems and on reconstruction of fracture density stereoplots on the basis of data collected from one or two images according to different lithologies and outcropping conditions. The methodology for evaluating the volumetric fracture intensity follows in a slightly modified way a technique previously suggested in the literature. Certain reported examples allow to validate the photoanalytical technique used and the proposed method of analysis. Furthermore, analyses on planar density, spacing, frequency, terminations in solid rock or against other discontinuities and spatial correlation have been implemented in a software to yield a more complete rock mass characterization. At the same time input data and analysis results are produced in data files available as input for numerical analyses.     

Controls on modern alluvial fan processes in the central Alps,northern Italy

Alluvial fan development in Alpine areas is often affected by catastrophic sedimentary processes associated with extreme ?oods events, causing serious risks for people living on the fans. Hazard assessment in these areas depends on proper identi?cation of the dominant sedimentary processes on the fans. Data from a set of 209 alluvial fans from the central Alps of Italy are presented in this paper and analysed with the help of various statistical techniques (linear regression, principal components analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic regression). First, we used modern sedimentary facies and historical records (?ood events since 15th century), to distinguish between the two dominant sedimentary processes on alluvial fans: debris ?ows and stream?ows. Then, in order to analyse the main controls on past and present fan processes, 36 morphological, geological and land‐use variables were analysed. As with observations for arid‐environment fans, catchment morphology is the most in?uential factor in the study area, whereas geology and land use are minor controls. The role of climatic change and landsliding within the catchments also seems to be very important and is discussed. Statistical techniques also help in differentiating groups of alluvial fans by sets of controlling factors, including stage and type of evolution. Finally, by using discriminant analysis and logistic regression, we classi?ed alluvial fans according to the dominant sedimentary process, with a success rate ranging between 75 and 92 per cent. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Activity and kinematic behaviour of deep-seated landslides from PS-InSAR displacement rate measurements

Large landslides and deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) represent an important geo-hazard in relation to the deformation of large structures and infrastructures and to the associated secondary landslides. DSGSD movements, although slow (from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year), can continue for very long periods, producing large cumulative displacements and undergoing partial or complete reactivation. Therefore, it is important to map the activity of such phenomena at a regional scale. Ground surface displacements at DSGSD typically range close to the detection limit of monitoring equipment but are suitable for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. In this paper, permanent scatterers (PSInSAR?) and SqueeSAR? techniques are used to analyse the activity of 133 DSGSD, in the Central Italian Alps. Statistical indicators for assigning a degree of activity to slope movements from displacement rates are discussed together with methods for analysing the movement and activity distribution within each landslide. In order to assess if a landslide is active or not, with a certain degree of reliability, three indicators are considered as optimal: the mean displacement rate, the activity index (ratio of active PS, displacement rate larger than standard deviation, overall PS) and the nearest neighbor ratio, which allows to describe the degree of clustering of the PS data. According to these criteria, 66% of the phenomena are classified as active in the monitored period 1992–2009. Finally, a new methodology for the use of SAR interferometry data to attain a classification of landslide kinematic behaviour is presented. This methodology is based on the interpretation of longitudinal ground surface displacement rate profiles in the light of numerical simulations of simplified failure geometries. The most common kinematic behaviour is rotational, amounting to 41 DSGSDs, corresponding to the 62.1% of the active phenomena.     

Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation

 Rainfall, soil properties, and morphology are major factors controlling shallow landsliding. A series of meteorological events that triggered soil slips in northern Italy were studied to define rainfall thresholds and to evaluate a possible regionalization. Soil properties, triggering rainfall, and local lithological and morphometrical settings of different sites were used as input to an infiltration model. The approach allows the recognition of several triggering conditions in the Piedmont, Pre-Alpine and Alpine regions. This suggests the need for different rainfall thresholds with respect to those derived with other methods. Intensity versus rainfall duration relationships become particularly important when related to soil permeability and thickness, and demonstrate the role of antecedent precipitation. Events with exceptional water discharge from obstructed road culverts reveal the role played by anthropic structures in triggering such phenomena. Different approaches to slope stability analysis are shown, taking into account bedrock lithology, topography, seepage, and local saturation conditions. Received: 23 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment

This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model.     

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.     

Holocene glacier and deep water dynamics,Adélie Land region,East Antarctica

This study presents a high-resolution multi-proxy investigation of sediment core MD03-2601 and documents major glacier oscillations and deep water activity during the Holocene in the Adélie Land region, East Antarctica. A comparison with surface ocean conditions reveals synchronous changes of glaciers, sea ice and deep water formation at Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales. We report (1) a deglaciation of the Adélie Land continental shelf from 11 to 8.5 cal ka BP, which occurred in two phases of effective glacier grounding-line retreat at 10.6 and 9 cal ka BP, associated with active deep water formation; (2) a rapid glacier and sea ice readvance centred around 7.7 cal ka BP; and (3) five rapid expansions of the glacier–sea ice systems, during the Mid to Late Holocene, associated to a long-term increase of deep water formation. At Milankovich time scales, we show that the precessionnal component of insolation at high and low latitudes explains the major trend of the glacier–sea ice–ocean system throughout the Holocene, in the Adélie Land region. In addition, the orbitally-forced seasonality seems to control the coastal deep water formation via the sea ice–ocean coupling, which could lead to opposite patterns between north and south high latitudes during the Mid to Late Holocene. At sub-Milankovitch time scales, there are eight events of glacier–sea ice retreat and expansion that occurred during atmospheric cooling events over East Antarctica. Comparisons of our results with other peri-Antarctic records and model simulations from high southern latitudes may suggest that our interpretation on glacier–sea ice–ocean interactions and their Holocene evolutions reflect a more global Antarctic Holocene pattern.