An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs

This study used 16 Global Climate Models and three global warming scenarios to make projections of recharge under a 2050 climate for the entire Australian continent at a 0.05° grid resolution. The results from these 48 future climate variants have been fitted to a probability distribution to enable the results to be summarised and uncertainty quantified. The median results project a reduction in recharge across the west, centre and south of Australia and an increase in recharge across the north and a small area in the east of the continent. The range of results is quite large and for large parts of the continent encompasses both increases and decreases in recharge. This makes it difficult to utilise for water resources management so the results have been analysed with a risk analysis framework; this enables the future projections for groundwater recharge to be communicated to water managers in terms of likelihood and consequence of a reduction in recharge. This highlights an important message for water resource managers that in most areas of Australia they will be making decisions on water allocations under considerable uncertainty as to the direction and magnitude of recharge change under a future climate and that this uncertainty may be irreducible.     

Constraining probabilistic chloride mass-balance recharge estimates using baseflow and remotely sensed evapotranspiration: the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer in northern Australia

Hydrogeology Journal - Regional-scale estimates of groundwater recharge are inherently uncertain, but this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Quantifying this uncertainty provides an understanding...     

Review: Current and emerging methods for catchment-scale modelling of recharge and evapotranspiration from shallow groundwater

A review is provided of the current and emerging methods for modelling catchment-scale recharge and evapotranspiration (ET) in shallow groundwater systems. With increasing availability of data, such as remotely sensed reflectance and land-surface temperature data, it is now possible to model groundwater recharge and ET with more physically realistic complexity and greater levels of confidence. The conceptual representation of recharge and ET in groundwater models is critical in areas with shallow groundwater. The depth dependence of recharge and vegetation water-use feedback requires additional calibration to fluxes as well as heads. Explicit definition of gross recharge vs. net recharge, and groundwater ET vs. unsaturated zone ET, in preparing model inputs and reporting model results is necessary to avoid double accounting in the water balance. Methods for modelling recharge and ET include (1) use of simple surface boundary conditions for groundwater flow models, (2) coupling saturated groundwater models with one-dimensional unsaturated-zone models, and (3) more complex fully-coupled surface-unsaturated-saturated conceptualisations. Model emulation provides a means for including complex model behaviours with lower computational effort. A precise ET surface input is essential for accurate model outputs, and the model conceptualisation depends on the spatial and temporal scales under investigation. Using remote sensing information for recharge and ET inputs in model calibration or in model–data fusion is an area for future research development. Improved use of uncertainty analysis to provide probability bounds for groundwater model outputs, understanding model sensitivity and parameter dependence, and guidance for further field-data acquisition are also areas for future research.     

Becoming Reading Group: reflections on assembling a collegiate,caring collective

ABSTRACT

In neoliberalising universities, collegial and collective practices such as reading groups are often positioned by students, staff and managers as less important than meeting individual KPIs (such as producing research publications, seeking research grants, or meeting the increasing demands of producing quality teaching outcomes.) However, reading groups can be vital for cultivating caring collectives and spaces of collegiality. In this paper we use assemblage thinking to explore 25 years of a Geography reading group at the University of Newcastle. The paper addresses two questions: what does reading together do and make possible; and how might we think about the labours of reading together as a way of building caring collectives. The paper draws on reflections from 24 past and present members of reading group to explore how these kinds of academic practices nourish our working lives.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Groundwater recharge is a complex process reflecting many interactions between climate, vegetation and soils. Climate change will impact upon groundwater recharge but it is not clear which climate variables have the greatest influence over recharge. This study used a sensitivity analysis of climate variables using a modified version of WAVES, a soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model (unsaturated zone), to determine the importance of each climate variable in the change in groundwater recharge for three points in Australia. This study found that change in recharge is most sensitive to change in rainfall. Increases in temperature and changes in rainfall intensity also led to significant changes in recharge. Although not as significant as other climate variables, some changes in recharge were observed due to changes in solar radiation and carbon dioxide concentration. When these variables were altered simultaneously, changes in recharge appeared to be closely related to changes in rainfall; however, in nearly all cases, recharge was greater than would have been predicted if only rainfall had been considered. These findings have implications for how recharge is projected to change due to climate change.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled.     

Comparing Methods of Barometric Efficiency Characterization for Specific Storage Estimation

Groundwater responses to barometric pressure fluctuations are characterized using the concept of barometric efficiency (BE). For semiconfined and confined aquifers, BE values can be used to provide efficient, low-cost estimates of specific storage. This study compares, for the first time, eight existing methods of BE estimation. Comparisons were undertaken using data from the Peel region of Western Australia. Fourier analysis and regression deconvolution methods were used to estimate aquifer confinement status. The former approach was found to be robust and provided a quantitative basis for spatial comparisons of the degree of confinement. The latter approach was confounded by the presence of diurnal and/or semidiurnal signals. For wells at which semiconfined or confined responses were identified, frequency and time domain methods were used to estimate BE values. Most BE estimation methods were similarly confounded by diurnal and/or semidiurnal signals, with the exception of the Acworth et al. (2016) method. Specific storage values calculated from BE values were order-of-magnitude consistent with the results of four historical pumping tests. The methods implemented in this research provide efficient, low-cost alternatives to hydraulic testing for estimating aquifer confinement, as well as the BE and specific storage of semiconfined and confined aquifers. The frequency and duration of observations required by these methods are minimal; for example, typically requiring a minimum of four observations per day over a four month period. In some locations they may allow additional insights to be derived from existing groundwater hydrograph data.     

Field assessment of surface water–groundwater connectivity in a semi‐arid river basin (Murray–Darling,Australia)

In semi‐arid and arid river basins, understanding the connectivity between rivers and alluvial aquifers is one of the key challenges for the management of groundwater resources. The type of connection present (gaining, losing‐connected, transitional and losing‐disconnected) was assessed at 12 sites along six Murray–Darling Basin river reaches. The assessments were made by measuring the hydraulic head in the riparian zone near the rivers to evaluate if the water tables intersected the riverbeds and by measuring fluid pressure (ψ) in the riverbeds. The rationale for the latter was that ψ will always be greater than or equal to zero under connected conditions (either losing or gaining) and always lesser than or equal to zero under losing‐disconnected conditions. A mixture of losing‐disconnected, losing‐connected and gaining conditions was found among the 12 sites. The losing‐disconnected sites all had a riverbed with a lower hydraulic conductivity than the underlying aquifer, usually in the form of a silty clay or clay unit 0.5–2 m in thickness. The riparian water tables were 6 to 25 m below riverbed level at the losing‐disconnected sites but never lower than 1 m below riverbed level at the losing‐connected ones. The contrast in water table depth between connected and disconnected sites was attributed to the conditions at the time of the study, when a severe regional drought had generated a widespread decline in regional water tables. This decline was apparently compensated near losing‐connected rivers by increased infiltration rates, while the decline could not be compensated at the losing‐disconnected rivers because the infiltration rates were already maximal there. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.