基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Small hypervelocity particles captured in aerogel collectors: Location,extraction, handling and storage

Abstract— It has now been about a decade since the first demonstrations that hypervelocity particles could be captured, partially intact, in aerogel collectors. But the initial promise of a bonanza of partially‐intact extraterrestrial particles, collected in space, has yet to materialize. One of the difficulties that investigators have encountered is that the location, extraction, handling and analysis of very small (10 μm and less) grains, which constitute the vast majority of the captured particles, is challenging and burdensome. Furthermore, current extraction techniques tend to be destructive over large areas of the collectors. Here we describe our efforts to alleviate some of these difficulties. We have learned how to rapidly and efficiently locate captured particles in aerogel collectors, using an automated microscopic scanning system originally developed for experimental nuclear astrophysics. We have learned how to precisely excavate small access tunnels and trenches using an automated micromanipulator and glass microneedles as tools. These excavations are only destructive to the collector in a very small area—this feature may be particularly important for excavations in the precious Stardust collectors. Using actuatable silicon microtweezers, we have learned how to extract and store “naked” particles—essentially free of aerogel—as small as 3 μm in size. We have also developed a technique for extracting particles, along with their terminal tracks, still embedded in small cubical aerogel blocks. We have developed a novel method for storing very small particles in etched nuclear tracks. We have applied these techniques to the extraction and storage of grains captured in aerogel collectors (Particle Impact Experiment, Orbital Debris Collector Experiment, Comet‐99) in low Earth orbit.     

Thick and thin models of the evolution of carbon dioxide on Mars

We present results from a new simulation code that accounts for the evolution of the reservoirs of carbon dioxide on Mars, from its early years to the present. We establish a baseline model parameter set that produces results compatible with the present (i.e., Patm?6.5 mbar with permanent CO₂ ice cap) for a wide range of initial inventories. We find that the initial inventory of CO₂ broadly determines the evolutionary course of the reservoirs of CO₂. The reservoirs include the atmosphere, ice cap, adsorbed CO₂ in the regolith, and carbonate rocks. We track the evolution of the free inventory: the atmosphere, ice cap and regolith. Simulations begin at 4.53 Gyr before present with a rapid loss of free inventory to space in the early Noachian. Models that assume a relatively small initial inventory (?5 bar) have pronounced minima in the free inventory of CO₂ toward the end of the Noachian. Under baseline parameters, initial inventories below ∼4.5 bar result in a catastrophic loss of the free inventory to space. The current free inventory would be then determined by the balance between outgassing, sputtering losses and chemical weathering following the end of the late bombardment. We call these “thin” models. They generically predict small current free inventories in line with expectations of a small present CO₂ ice cap. For “thick” models, with initial inventories ?5 bar, a surplus of 300-700 mbar of free CO₂ remains during the late-Noachian. The histories of free inventory in time for thick models tend to converge within the last 3.5 Gyr toward a present with an ice cap plus atmospheric inventory of about 100 mbar. For thick models, the convergence is largely due to the effects of chemical weathering, which draws down higher free inventories more rapidly than the low. Thus, thick models have ?450 mbar carbonate reservoirs, while thin models have ?200 mbar. Though both thick and thin scenarios can reproduce the current atmospheric pressure, the thick models imply a relatively large current CO₂ ice cap and thin models, little or none. While the sublimation of a massive cap at a high obliquity would create a climate swing of greenhouse warming for thick models, under the thin model, mean temperatures and pressures would be essentially unaffected by increases in obliquity.     

Noctilucent cloud formation and the effects of water vapor variability on temperatures in the middle atmosphere

To investigate the occurrence of low temperatures and the formation of noctilucent clouds in the summer mésosphere a one-dimensional time-dependent photochemical-thermal numerical model of the atmosphere between 50 and 120 km has been constructed. The model includes the important chemistry of the hydrogen and oxygen species and transport by eddy and molecular processes. The thermal balance incorporates: heating by solar ultraviolet radiation; transport of chemical potential energy; eddy diffusion and dissipation; molecular conduction; airglow emissions; and infrared cooling by carbon dioxide. A non- LTE parameterization is used to calculate 15 μm band cooling by carbon dioxide. The model self-consistently solves the coupled photochemical and thermal equations as perturbation equations from a reference state assumed to be in equilibrium and is used to consider the effect of variability in water vapor in the lower mesosphere on the temperature in the region of noctilucent cloud formation. It is found that change in water vapor from an equilibrium value of 5 ppm at 50 km to a value of 10 ppm, a variation consistent with observations, can produce a ~ 15 K drop in temperature at 82 km. It is suggested that this process may produce long periods (weeks) of cold temperatures and influence noctilucent cloud formation.     

A dated cave sediment record of Pleistocene transgressions on Berry Head,Southwest England

Berry Head, a limestone headland in Torbay, southwest England, exhibits a series of subaerial marine erosion platforms and raised beaches spanning an altitude range of 97 m. Solution caves on the headland show preferred horizontal development at elevations that are correlated with the marine erosion platforms, and developed in a marine/freshwater mixing zone whose position was controlled by high sea-level still-stands. Corbridge Cave in Berry Head Quarry lies below the raised beaches in Torbay, and contains evidence of three marine transgressions in the form of fine-grained marine ponding deposits with a marine microfauna. Uranium-series dating of intercalated speleothems indicates that a transgression during oxygen isotope stage 5e reached an elevation of 5.8 m OD, while an earlier transgression (probably during stage 7) reached at least 7.2 m OD. These findings are used to constrain possible interpretations of the aminostratigraphy of raised beaches in Southwest Britain, and a correlation of the Unnamed Stage of Bowen, Sykes, Reeves, Miller, Andrews, Brew and Hare with oxygen isotope stage 5e is proposed.     

The western lapidary tradition in early geological literature: medicinal and magical minerals

Nowadays, when someone refers to lapidary they usually mean the process of polishing, engraving or working stones. The term is much broader than that, however, encompassing an entire genre of literature which formed the basis of much geological observation even before the word 'geology' was ever coined.     

Preliminary results for a semi-automated quantification of site effects using geomorphometry and ASTER satellite data for Mozambique,Pakistan and Turkey

Estimation of the degree of local seismic wave amplification (site effects) requires precise information about the local site conditions. In many regions of the world, local geologic information is either sparse or is not readily available. Because of this, seismic hazard maps for countries such as Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey are developed without consideration of site factors and, therefore, do not provide a complete assessment of future hazards. Where local geologic information is available, details on the traditional maps often lack the precision (better than 1:10,000 scale) or the level of information required for modern seismic microzonation requirements. We use high-resolution (1:50,000) satellite imagery and newly developed image analysis methods to begin addressing this problem. Our imagery, consisting of optical data and digital elevation models (DEMs), is recorded from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor system. We apply a semi-automated, object-oriented, multi-resolution feature segmentation method to identify and extract local terrain features. Then we classify the terrain types into mountain, piedmont and basin units using geomorphometry (topographic slope) as our parameter. Next, on the basis of the site classification schemes from the Wills and Silva (1998) study and the Wills et al (2000) and Wills and Clahan (2006) maps of California, we assign the local terrain units with V _s 30 (the average seismic shear-wave velocity through the upper 30m of the subsurface) ranges for selected regions in Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey. We find that the applicability of our site class assignments in each region is a good first-approximation for quantifying local site conditions and that additional work, such as the verification of the terrain’s compositional rigidity, is needed.     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

Basement–cover relationships of the Kalak Nappe Complex, Arctic Norwegian Caledonides and constraints on Neoproterozoic terrane assembly in the North Atlantic region

The Kalak Nappe Complex (KNC) has been regarded as Baltica passive margin metasediments telescoped eastwards onto the Baltic (Fennoscandian) Shield during the Caledonian Orogeny. Recent studies have questioned this interpretation, instead pointing to a Neoproterozoic exotic origin. In an effort to resolve this controversy we present a Sm–Nd and U–Th–Pb study of gnessic units, traditionally considered as the depositional basement, along with cover rock sediments and intrusives. Late Palaeoproterozoic gneisses now beneath the KNC were deposited after 1948 ± 33 Ma, before intrusion of the Tjukkfjellet Granite at 1796 ± 3 Ma, and were affected by later melting events at 1765 ± 9 and 1727 ± 9 Ma. These gneisses are interpreted as part of the Baltic Shield and underlie the KNC across a tectonic contact. An unconformity between psammites of the KNC and other paragneisses previously considered as its Precambrian basement is reinterpreted as a modified sedimentary contact between Neoproterozoic metasediments. These metasediments have statistically very similar detrital zircon populations with grains as young as 1034 ± 22, 1025 ± 32 and 1014 ± 14 Ma. The results indicate that the KNC sediments were deposited during the Neoproterozoic in basins along the Laurentian margin of eastern Rodinia and were not connected to Baltica via a depositional basement. Dating of the 851 ± 5 Ma Eidvågvatnet and 853 ± 4 Ma Nordneset granites shows that intrusive material associated with the Porsanger Orogeny (c. 850 Ma) affected a considerable region of the upper KNC terrane. Later Neoproterozoic events at 711 ± 6, 687 ± 12 and 617 ± 6 Ma are also recognised the latest of which may be an expression of rifting. Since early Neoproterozoic magmatism (c. 840–690 Ma) is unknown in Baltica, these results support an exotic origin for the KNC terranes.     

Late Quaternary Bison diminution on the Great Plains of North America: evaluating the role of human hunting versus climate change

Body size changes of Bison and mortality age structure data document the effects of climate-driven environmental change and human hunting pressure on large mammals in North America. Morphometric and mortality data are drawn from 58 archaeological and 9 paleontological localities dating between 37,000 and 250 calBP. Proxy information on body size is based on measurements recorded on 901 adult calcanei (os calcis) and 1026 humeri. In addition, published mortality profiles from 24 archaeological faunal assemblages spanning the last 14,000 years were used to approximate the age structure of bison populations. These results suggest that dramatic diminution in bison body size occurred in several short bursts, rather than a continuous gradual decline. These periods of rapid size reduction correlate with times of ecological reorganization, when aridity-driven changes in grasslands decreased forage quality and availability. Mortality age data indicate that the decrease in body size occurred in a context where there was no evidence for a progressively severe juvenile bias in bison populations. Overall, it appears that the changes in body size were a reaction to environmental conditions rather than the result of human predation pressure.