Geomorphic evolution of the Southern Alps,New Zealand

The Southern Alps are the topographic expression of late Cenozoic (<8 Ma ago) uplift of the crust of the leading edge of the Pacific plate in South Island, New Zealand. New fission track data on the basement exposed in the Southern Alps quantify the age, amount, and rate of rock uplift, and in combination with geomorphic parameters permit the construction of a new model of the geomorphic evolution of the Southern Alps. The model emphasizes the development over time and space of rock uplift, mean surface elevation, exhumation of crustal section, and relief. The earliest indications of mean surface uplift are between 4 and 5 Ma ago at the Alpine Fault. Mean surface uplift, which lagged the start of rock uplift, propagated southeastward from the Alpine Fault at a rate of 30 km/Ma. By about 4 Ma ago, exhumation had exposed greywacke basement adjacent to and east of the entire 300 km long central section of the Alpine Fault. At 3 Ma ago, greenschist was exposed in the southern parts of the Southern Alps near Lake Wanaka, and since then has become exhumed along a narrow strip east of the Alpine Fault. The model infers that amphibolite grade schist has been exhumed adjacent to the Alpine Fault only in the last 0·3 Ma. The age of the start of rock uplift and the amount and rate of rock uplift, all of which vary spatially, are considered to be the dominant influences on the development of the landscape in the Southern Alps. The Southern Alps have been studied in terms of domains of different rock uplift rate. At present the rate of rock uplift varies from up to 8–10 mm/a adjacent to the Alpine Fault to 0·8–1·0 mm/a along the southeastern margin of the Southern Alps. This spectrum can be divided into two domains, one northwest of the Main Divide where the present rock uplift rates are very high (up to 8–10 mm/a) and exceed the long-term value of 0·8–1·0 mm/a, and another to the southeast of the Main Divide where the long-term rate is 0·8–1·0 mm/a. A domain of no uplift lies immediately to the east of the Southern Alps, and is separated from them by a 1·0–1·5 km step in the basement topography. We argue that this spatial sequence of uplift rate domains represents a temporal one. The existing models of the geomorphic development of the Southern Alps—the dynamic cuesta model of J. Adams and the numerical model of P. Koons—are compared with the new data and evolutionary model. Particular constraints unrealized by these two earlier models include the following: the earlier timing of the start of rock uplift of the Southern Alps (8 Ma ago); the spatial variation in the timing of the start of rock uplift (8 Ma ago to 3 Ma ago); the lower long-term rock uplift rate (0·8–1·0 mm/a) of the Southern Alps for most of the late Cenozoic; the lag between the start of rock uplift and the start of mean surface uplift; and the patterns of the amounts of late Cenozoic rock uplift and erosion across the Southern Alps.     

Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

Geology and impact features of Vargeão Dome,southern Brazil

Abstract– Vargeão Dome (southern Brazil) is a circular feature formed in lava flows of the Lower Cretaceous Serra Geral Formation and in sandstones of the Paraná Basin. Even though its impact origin was already proposed in the 1980s, little information about its geological and impact features is available in the literature. The structure has a rim‐rim diameter of approximately 12 km and comprises several ring‐like concentric features with multiple concentric lineaments. The presence of a central uplift is suggested by the occurrence of deformed sandstone strata of the Botucatu and Pirambóia formations. We present the morphological/structural characteristics of Vargeão Dome, characterize the different rock types that occur in its interior, mainly brecciated volcanic rocks (BVR) of the Serra Geral Formation, and discuss the deformation and shock features in the volcanic rocks and in sandstones. These features comprise shatter cones in sandstone and basalt, as well as planar microstructures in quartz. A geochemical comparison of the target rock equivalents from outside the structure with the shocked rocks from its interior shows that both the BVRs and the brecciated sandstone have a composition largely similar to that of the corresponding unshocked lithologies. No traces of meteoritic material have been found so far. The results confirm the impact origin of Vargeão Dome, making it one of the largest among the rare impact craters in basaltic targets known on Earth.     

Atlantic humpback dolphins Sousa teuszii in the Saloum Delta (Senegal): distribution,relative abundance and photo-identification

During October and November 2015, the first systematic survey of Sousa teuszii was carried out in the Saloum Delta (Senegal, West Africa), comprising 1 617.5 km of boat-based survey coverage. Thirty sightings were recorded in the Saloum and Diomboss rivers, and along the southern coastline. Dolphins were also observed entering the Bandiala and Djinack channels, and travelling across the border into Gambia. The initial sighting locations were 0.043–1.192 km from shore, and tracked dolphins did not move more than 2.082 km from shore. Groups comprised 1–29 animals (mean 9.3 animals), and at least three neonate calves were observed during November. The overall relative abundance was 0.018 sight. km^?1 and 0.175 ind. km^?1. Sightings were concentrated in the Diomboss where relative abundance reached 0.037 sight. km^?1 and 0.331 ind. km^?1. Non-intensive photo-identification produced a minimum population size of 103 animals, the highest recorded for S. teuszii anywhere in its range. Photo-identification also confirmed a movement of individuals between different parts of the Saloum Delta. Combined travel–forage dominated the behaviour. Dolphins were photographed capturing mullet (Mugil sp.) on three occasions. The distribution, population size and movements of S. teuszii are discussed in relation to management.     

Quantitative relationships between uplift and relief parameters for the Southern Alps,New Zealand,as determined by fission track analysis

The Southern Alps mountain chain, New Zealand, has formed as a consequence of late Cenozoic collision of the continental parts of the Pacific and Australia plates. Fission track analysis has yielded estimates of the amount, age of initiation, and rate of late Cenozoic rock uplift for 82 surface samples taken from transects across the Southern Alps. The mean surface, summit and valley elevations in the vicinity of each of the rock sample sites have also been measured. Regression of the geomorphic variables on the uplift variables has been used to establish quantitative relationships between uplift and geomorphology. There are strong and consistent linear associations between uplift and the elevations of the mean surface, summits and valleys. The preferred regression models have uniform slope but varying elevation response between transects. Substitution of space for time has allowed the evolution of landforms to be studied. To the east of the Main Divide, elevation and relief are proportional to, and closely related to, the age of initiation of rock uplift (‘uplift age’) and the amount of rock uplift (r² > 0·8). Mean surface uplift was delayed for ～2 Ma after the start of rock uplift, a result of the stripping of a soft cover rock succession that, prior to rock uplift, overlaid the harder greywacke basement. Inter-transect variations in regression response and x-intercept are inferred, therefore, to reflect the variable preuplift thickness of cover rocks. However, the regular regression slope for the transects reflects the consistent nature of the interaction between uplift and the erodibility of greywacke basement. Uplift of the mean surface proceeded at 0·4 km/km and 0·4 km/Ma of rock uplift, while the rock uplift rate was 0·8 km/Ma. Summit elevations have increased at a rate of 0·6 km/Ma and valley elevations have increased at 0·2 km/Ma. Regression lines relating mean surface, summit and valley elevations to rock uplift and uplift age diverge from common intercepts; it is concluded, therefore, that the mountains east of the Main Divide have continued to increase in elevation and relief and change in form over time since the start of mean surface uplift. Mountain elevation has little relationship with late Cenozoic mean rock uplift rates of 0·8–1·0 km/Ma or inferred contemporary rock uplift rates (r² ～ 0·3). In contrast, to the west of the Main Divide, elevation is shown to be closely related to rock uplift rate (r² > 0·3). In contrast, to the west of the Main Divide, elevation is shown to be closely related to rock uplift rate (r² > 0·8). Transects with higher rock uplift rates support higher topography. Landforms are therefore in a stable equilibrium with rock uplift rate, and the landscape contains no residual evidence of the total amount of rock uplift, or the age of uplift. Lithological variation appears to have no relationship with elevation.     

北秦岭西段冥古宙锆石(4.1～3.9Ga)年代学新进展

2007年王洪亮等报道在北秦岭西段火山岩中获得一粒年龄为4079±5Ma的冥古宙捕虏锆石。之后,对这一发现开展了深入的调查研究,我们除利用SHIMP技术方法对原4079Ma的锆石进行验证外,新获得了两粒~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄为4007±29Ma和3908±45Ma捕获的变质成因锆石,表明早在4.0Ga已经有变质作用的发生,这或许说明在冥古宙时期地球已经具有相当规模和厚度的地壳。同时开展的岩石学研究表明,蕴含古老锆石的母岩属于火山碎屑熔岩类而不是火山熔岩。     

Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: a diagnostic comparison

Diagnostic evaluations of the relative performances of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in prediction of monthly anomalies of the ENSO-related Nino3.4 SST index are conducted using the common hindcast period of 1982–2009 for lead times of up to 9 months. CFSv2 outperforms CFSv1 in temporal correlation skill for predictions at moderate to long lead times that traverse the northern spring ENSO predictability barrier (e.g., a forecast for July made in February). However, for predictions during less challenging times of the year (e.g., a forecast for January made in August), CFSv1 has higher correlations than CFSv2. This seeming retrogression is caused by a cold bias in CFSv2 predictions for Nino3.4 SST during 1982–1998, and a warm bias during 1999–2009. Work by others has related this time-conditional bias to changes in the observing system in late 1998 that affected the ocean reanalysis serving as initial conditions for CFSv2. A posteriori correction of these differing biases, and of a similar (but lesser) situation affecting CFSv1, allows for a more realistic evaluation of the relative performances of the two CFS versions. After the dual bias corrections, CFSv2 has slightly better correlation skill than CFSv1 for most months and lead times, with approximately equal skills for forecasts not traversing the ENSO predictability barrier and better skills for most (particularly long-lead) predictions traversing the barrier. The overall difference in correlation skill is not statistically field significant. However, CFSv2 has statistically significantly improved amplitude bias, and visibly better probabilistic reliability, and lacks target month slippage as compared with CFSv1. Together, all of the above improvements result in a highly significantly reduced overall RMSE—the metric most indicative of final accuracy.     

Insights into the morphology of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure from geophysical modeling

Forward modeling is commonly applied to gravity field data of impact structures to determine the main gravity anomaly sources. In this context, we have developed 2.5‐D gravity models of the Serra da Cangalha impact structure for the purpose of investigating geological bodies/structures underneath the crater. Interpretation of the models was supported by ground magnetic data acquired along profiles, as well as by high resolution aeromagnetic data. Ground magnetic data reveal the presence of short‐wavelength anomalies probably related to shallow magnetic sources that could have been emplaced during the cratering process. Aeromagnetic data show that the basement underneath the crater occurs at an average depth of about 1.9 km, whereas in the region beneath the central uplift it is raised to 0.5–1 km below the current surface. These depths are also supported by 2.5‐D gravity models showing a gentle relief for the basement beneath the central uplift area. Geophysical data were used to provide further constraints for numeral modeling of crater formation that provided important information on the structural modification that affected the rocks underneath the crater, as well as on shock‐induced modifications of target rocks. The results showed that the morphology is consistent with the current observations of the crater and that Serra da Cangalha was formed by a meteorite of approximately 1.4 km diameter striking at 12 km s^?1.     

Strains developed in the hangingwalls of thrusts due to their slip/propagation rate: a dislocation model: discussion

Modern seismic data indicate that the sole fault of the Turner Valley thrust sheet does not lose displacement in an up-dip direction and that it does not crop out but rather flattens into the triangle zone on the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountain Foothills Belt. Well constrained balanced cross-sections drawn through this part of the belt do not incorporate significant folding related to the propagation of thrust faults.