Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.     

A time- and magnitude-predictable model for generation of shallow earthquakes in the Aegean area

Repeat times of strong shallow mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for 68 seismogenic sources in the Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E). For 49 of these sources at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these 49 sources the following relation has been determined: $$\log T_t = 0.36M_{\min } + 0.35M_p + a$$ whereT _t is the repeat time, measured in years,M _p the surface wave magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M _min the magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered and “a” parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.89 was determined for this relation. By using the same repeat times for the 49 seismogenic sources, the following relation has been determined between the magnitude,M _f , of the following mainshock andM _min andM _p . $$M_f = 0.95M_{\min } - 0.49M_p + m$$ wherem is a constant which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.80 was found for this relation. The model expressed by these two relations is represented by a scheme of a time variation of stress under constant tectonic loading. In this scheme, the maximum stress values during the different seismic cycles fluctuate around a value, τ₁, in a relatively narrow stress interval, expressing the high correlation coefficient of the relation between LogT andM _p . On the contrary, the minimum stress values fluctuate around a value, τ₂, in a much broader stress interval. However, each of these minimum stress values becomes lower or higher than τ₂ if the previous one is higher or lower than τ₂, respectively, expressing the negative correlation betweenM _f andM _p .     

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.     

Distribution and feeding modes of macrobenthos within three oceanographic feature areas of the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

The composition and distribution of macrobenthic communities was investigated in three areas in the KwaZulu- Natal Bight, a section of shelf off the east coast of South Africa. Areas were pre-selected on the basis of three known oceanographic features, posited to deliver land- or Agulhas Current-derived nutrients onto the shelf and to drive ecosystem functioning in this region. Replicate sediment samples were collected with a 0.2 m² van Veen grab, during two surveys (A, B) corresponding with normal periods of high and low rainfall, respectively. A subset of the full station array was selected across the shelf in an arrangement of increasing depths (inner-, mid- and outer shelf) through each feature area to investigate the spatial distribution and feeding modes of macrobenthic taxa. The two periods showed some differences in abundance and numbers of macrobenthic taxa, but were not statistically different. Total macrobenthic abundance from Survey A was 20 215 individuals from 642 taxa, decreasing to 18 000 individuals from 503 taxa during Survey B. Polychaeta and Crustacea were the dominant taxa sampled; abundance of the latter was attributed largely to a proliferation of Paguristes sp.1 at inner-shelf samples in the midbight (Thukela) region during Survey B. Similarity classification distinguished seven sample groups reflecting differences in feature areas and shelf positions under investigation. The Thukela River midshelf community supported the highest macrobenthic abundance, while the midshelf off the southern bight (Durban region) was most species rich. Findings were attributed to the habitat complexity of the midshelf which includes a palaeo-dune cordon at the 60 m isobath. Functionally, the community was dominated by interface- and deposit-feeding fauna, emphasising the importance of trophic plasticity in an environmentally variable and heterogeneous shelf environment.     

Travel time residuals in southeastern Europe

The Pn travel time relative residuals, in respect to a crustal model of the Aegean area, have been determined for 103 permanent seismological stations in southeastern Europe, western Turkey and the Middle East. The values of these residuals are considered to depend mainly on the crustal thickness beneath the seismological stations. Based on these values seven regions with different crustal thickness, varying between 31 Km and 42 Km, have been defined. The crust in these regions is continental. A region with very high negative residuals has been defined in the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, Lebanon). These negative residuals are attributed to different crustal structure of the eastern Mediterranean (oceanic crust with an extra thick sedimentary layer) and not the crustal thickness at the station sites.Independently from the interpretation, these Pn residuals can be used successfully to considerably improve (up to 2 Km) the determination of the earthquake foci locations.     

Rupture zones in the area of the 17.08.99 Izmit (NW Turkey) large earthquake (Mw 7.4) and stress changes caused by its generation

The M_w 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 17 August 1999 struck a part ofthe North Anatolian fault in the area of Izmit Bay (NW Turkey). Historicalinformation shows that the fault which moved during the generation of thisearthquake consists of two fault segments moved during the generation oflarge (M 7) earthquakes in 1719 and 1754, respectively. Since then onlythe central part (between Izmit and Lake Sapanca) of this fault ruptured bythe generation of a smaller shock (M = 6.6) in 1878.The spatial stress variations based on the calculation of changes in theCoulomb Failure Function (CFF) associated with this earthquake aresupported by the distribution of strong aftershock foci. Large positive valuesof CFF to the east and west of the mainshock epicenter are inagreement with the notion that secondary faults were triggered there by thegeneration of the main event. Large positive values of CFF are alsoobserved in the adjacent western fault segment where the 1766 event wasgenerated, evidencing the occurrence of the next strong earthquake in thissegment.