Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.     

Three-dimensional finite element simulation of fracture propagation in rock specimens with pre-existing fissure(s) under compression and their strength analysis

A FORTRAN program, consistent with the commercially available finite element (FE) code ABAQUS, is developed based on a three-dimensional (3D) linear elastic brittle damage constitutive model with two damage criteria. To consider the heterogeneity of rock, the developed FORTRAN program is used to set the stiffness and strength properties of each element of the FE model following a Weibull distribution function. The reliability of the program is assessed against available experimental results for granite cylindrical specimens with a throughgoing, flat and inclined fissure. The calibration procedure of the material parameters is explained in detail, and it is shown that the compressive to tensile strength ratio can have a substantial influence on the failure response of the specimens. Numerical simulations are conducted for models with different levels of heterogeneity. The results show a smaller load bearing capacity for models with less homogeneity, representing gradual coalescence of fully damaged elements forming throughout the models during loading. The maximum load bearing capacity is studied for various combinations of inclination angles of two centrally aligned, throughgoing and flat fissures of equal length embedded in cylindrical models under uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions. The key role of the compressive to tensile strength ratio is highlighted by repeating certain simulations with a lower compressive to tensile strength ratio. It is proven that the peak loads of the rock models with sufficiently small compressive to tensile strength ratios containing two throughgoing fissures of equal length are similar, provided that the minimum inclination angles of the models are the same. The results are presented and discussed with respect to the existing experimental findings in the literature, suggesting that the numerical model applied in this study can provide useful insight into the failure behaviour of rock-like materials.     

High-frequency monitoring of hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes in forested catchments of southern Chile

The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.     

Dynamic modelling of retrogressive landslides with emphasis on the role of clay sensitivity

This paper presents a detailed numerical study of the retrogressive failure of landslides in sensitive clays. The dynamic modelling of the landslides is carried out using a novel continuum approach, the particle finite element method, complemented with an elastoviscoplastic constitutive model. The multiwedge failure mode in the collapse is captured successfully, and the multiple retrogressive failures that have been widely observed in landslides in sensitive clays are reproduced with the failure mechanism, the kinematics, and the deposition being discussed in detail. Special attention has been paid to the role of the clay sensitivity on each retrogressive failure as well as on the final retrogression distance and the final run‐out distance via parametric studies. Moreover, the effects of the viscosity of sensitive clays on the failure are also investigated for different clay sensitivities.