Impacts of growth in resource use and human population on the Nechako River: A major tributary of the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada

Hydroelectric development, forest exploitation, agricultural land use and related human population numbers have increased rapidly during the last 40 years, in the basin of the Nechako River, a major tributary system of the Fraser River. The Kemano project of the Aluminum Company of Canada Ltd. begun in 1950, was the largest industrial scheme in the area. A key feature of the first stage of it was a dam which diverted about 40% of flow of the south branch of the Nechako River, through a tunnel in the mountains, to the Pacific Ocean. In 1987 an agreement for the Kemano Completion Project (KCP), which would have diverted 87% of the flow, was signed. This final phase of the project would have put important fisheries resources of the upper Fraser River at high risk. Mitigation for fisheries protection were inadequate or untested in the system at the time. Potential cumulative impacts of water abstraction, elevated pollution levels, increased water temperature and natural sediment were not addressed. In January 1995 KCP was cancelled but there remain at present no adequate measures to protect the fish and the river ecosystem. These measures are to be negotiated in the future. Future management of the whole Kemano development must provide biologically realistic flow and temperature regimes in the Nechako River, and must deal with cumulative impacts of population and industrial growth. To achieve sustainability of fisheries in the Nechako River and upper Fraser watershed the present approach to the Kemano development must be changed fundamentally. The future of the Kemano development must be set in the context of the whole future of the upper Fraser system. Continued growth and development, as has occurred in the upper Fraser and total basin, can not go on without inimical changes to ecosystem conditions and loss of fisheries resources.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Active tectonic morphology and submarine deformation of the northern Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba from analyses of multibeam data

A high-resolution marine geophysical study was conducted during October-November 2006 in the northern Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat, providing the first multibeam imaging of the seafloor across the entire gulf head spanning both Israeli and Jordanian territorial waters. Analyses of the seafloor morphology show that the gulf head can be subdivided into the Eilat and Aqaba subbasins separated by the north-south-trending Ayla high. The Aqaba submarine basin appears starved of sediment supply, apparently causing erosion and a landward retreat of the shelf edge. Along the eastern border of this subbasin, the shelf is largely absent and its margin is influenced by the Aqaba Fault zone that forms a steep slope partially covered by sedimentary fan deltas from the adjacent ephemeral drainages. The Eilat subbasin, west of the Ayla high, receives a large amount of sediment derived from the extensive drainage basins of the Arava Valley (Wadi ’Arabah) and Yutim River to the north–northeast. These sediments and those entering from canyons on the south-western border of this subbasin are transported to the deep basin by turbidity currents and gravity slides, forming the Arava submarine fan. Large detached blocks and collapsed walls of submarine canyons and the western gulf margin indicate that mass wasting may be triggered by seismic activity. Seafloor lineaments defined by slope gradient analyses suggest that the Eilat Canyon and the boundaries of the Ayla high align along north- to northwest-striking fault systems—the Evrona Fault zone to the west and the Ayla Fault zone to the east. The shelf–slope break that lies along the 100 m isobath in the Eilat subbasin, and shallower (70–80 m isobaths) in the Aqaba subbasin, is offset by approx. 150 m along the eastern edge of the Ayla high. This offset might be the result of horizontal and vertical movements along what we call the Ayla Fault on the east side of the structure. Remnants of two marine terraces at 100 m and approx. 150 m water depths line the southwest margin of the gulf. These terraces are truncated by faulting along their northern end. Fossil coral reefs, which have a similar morphological appearance to the present-day, basin margin reefs, crop out along these deeper submarine terraces and along the shelf–slope break. One fossil reef is exposed on the shelf across the Ayla high at about 60–63 m water depth but is either covered or eroded in the adjacent subbasins. The offshore extension of the Evrona Fault offsets a fossil reef along the shelf and extends south of the canyon to linear fractures on the deep basin floor.     

Excitation of Sr ii lines in Eta Carinae

We study the nature of the peculiar [Sr  ii ] and Sr  ii emission filament found in the ejecta of Eta Carinae. To this purpose we carry out ab initio calculations of radiative transition probabilities and electron impact excitation rate coefficients for Sr  ii . Then we build a multilevel model for the system which is used to investigate the physical condition of the filament and the nature of the observed allowed and forbidden Sr  ii optical emission. It is found that the observed spectrum is consistent with the lines being pumped by the continuum radiation field in a mostly neutral region with electron density near 10⁷ cm⁻³. Under these conditions, the observed emission can be explained without the need for a large Sr overabundance.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Sedimentary architecture of a glaciolacustrine braidplain delta: proxy evidence of a pre‐Middle Wisconsinan glaciation (Grimshaw gravels,Interior Plains,Canada)

The erosional nature of glacial systems commonly results in removal of direct evidence of previous glaciation (e.g. till and moraine). Therefore, reconstruction of former ice‐margin positions may rely, in part, on indirect (proxy) evidence from the sedimentary record. This study examines the facies and sedimentary architecture of a pre‐Middle Wisconsinan sand and gravel deposit (the ‘Grimshaw gravels’), which is positioned between areas where previous stratigraphical investigations have identified single (Late Wisconsinan) and multiple (pre‐Middle to Late Wisconsinan) glaciation by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Five facies associations (FAs) are characterized within the deposit, which, together with the sedimentary architecture, record a transition from a braided river environment in the west (FA1‐3) to a gravelly braidplain delta front in the east (FA4 and 5). We propose that the Grimshaw gravels braid delta formed at the margin of a body of water that occupied the ancestral Peace River valley, probably impounded by the LIS; hence, the Grimshaw braid delta provides proxy evidence of the presence of an ice margin (previously unrecognized) in the Peace River lowland prior to the Middle Wisconsinan. This study provides further understanding of the origin of the Grimshaw gravels deposit, allowing re‐evaluation of previous models of formation. These findings offer insight into the glacial history of the southwestern margin of the LIS, and may help to refine ice‐sheet reconstructions spanning the Wisconsinan glaciation.     

Petrogenesis of Volcanic Rocks from Saipan and Rota, Mariana Islands, and Implications for the Evolution of Nascent Island Arcs

An ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 45·1 Ma determined for lavas fromnorthern Saipan confirms that these high-silica rhyolites eruptedduring the ‘proto-arc’ stage of volcanism in theIzu–Bonin–Mariana system, which is characterizedelsewhere by eruption of boninitic lavas. Incompatible traceelement concentrations and Sr, Hf, Nd, and Pb isotope ratiosfor these rhyolites are transitional between those of c. 48Ma boninitic lavas and post-38 Ma ‘first-arc’ andesitesand dacites from Saipan and Rota that have typical subduction-relatedcompositions. These transitional compositions are modeled bycrystal fractionation of parental tholeiitic basalt combinedwith assimilation of young boninitic crust. A second stage ofRayleigh fractionation in the upper crust is required by SiO₂concentrations that exceed 77 wt % and near-zero compatibleelement concentrations. First-arc magma compositions are consistentwith fractionation of basalt and assimilation of crust similarin composition to the first-arc magmas themselves. The mantlesources of the proto-arc and first-arc lavas from Saipan andRota are similar to those of Philippine back-arc basin basaltsbased on Nd and Hf isotopic compositions. The Pb isotope compositionsof these lavas are between those of Pacific sea-floor basaltsand Jurassic and younger cherty and clay-rich sediments. Thiscontrasts with the boninitic proto-arc volcanic rocks from Guamand Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 458 and 459 that have Pbisotope compositions similar to Pacific basin basalts and volcaniclasticsediments. The preferred explanation for the difference in thenature of proto-arc volcanism between Saipan and other fore-arclocations is that the crust ceased extending 3–4 Myr earlierbeneath Saipan. This was caused by a change from mantle upwelling,fore-arc extension, and shallow melting to an environment dominatedby more normal mantle wedge convection, stable crust, and deepermelting. KEY WORDS: rhyolite; andesite; Mariana arc; isotope ratios; trace elements     

Changes in topography and vegetation near gaps in a protective foredune

Data gathered on a foredune on a nourished beach reveal the relationships between topography and plant communities at gaps in the dune crest. Sand inundation at gaps allows plants in some portions of the dune to rejuvenate to earlier successional stages, while an increase in richness occurs in other portions. Ammophila breviligulata can create an initial dune ridge, colonize new areas of bare sand within the dune field, facilitate growth of other species, and provide a natural alternative to fencing in managing gaps. Foredune mobility can be considered a positive factor if beach width and dune volume provide adequate protection.     

The phosphoric acid leak from the wreck of the MV Ece in the English Channel in 2006: Assessment with a ship of opportunity, an operational ecosystem model and historical data

This study evaluates the ship of opportunity (Ferrybox) concept for both sustained monitoring of UK shelf sea waters and numerical model validation. Release of phosphate from the wreck of a chemical tanker (MV Ece) in the western English Channel (49.73 degrees N, 3.25 degrees W) in March 2006 is used to demonstrate the importance of sustained observations in decision support systems and policy development. The Ferrybox system continuously collects sea surface (5m) data from a suite of autonomous electronic sensors installed on a passenger ferry operating year-round between Portsmouth (UK) and Bilbao (Spain). The detection of anomalously high concentrations of phosphate (1.54mmolm(-3), four times the usual level) and onset of phytoplankton growth close to the wreck site in March 2006 was placed in the context of multiple years of measurements (phosphate, nitrate, silicate and chlorophyll) collected from the Ferrybox system (2003-2006) and the long-term time series station E1 (50.03 degrees N, 4.65 degrees W, 1930-1987) in the English Channel. With regard to decision support, release of phosphate from the tanker is unlikely to pose a threat as phytoplankton growth at the end of winter is not unusual in this region and dissolved inorganic nitrogen rather than phosphate (DIN:DIP=10-18) is likely to ultimately limit algal growth in spring 2006. With regard to policy development, the Oslo and Paris (OSPAR) commissions recommendation of sampling every three years in "non-problem areas" is likely to provide statistically inadequate data, given the interannual and decadal variability identified in the Ferrybox and E1 data: the Ferrybox data show that oceanic winter nutrient concentrations varied by 35-50% between 2003/2004 and 2005/2006 due to deeper mixing of water off-shelf in early 2005/2006 and comparisons between the Ferrybox and E1 years show that the western English Channel is currently experiencing a low in phosphate concentrations similar to those in the 1960s. The importance of Ferrybox data in evaluating the reliability of predictive operational models needed in decision support is also demonstrated, by highlighting both strengths and weaknesses in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model designed for UK shelf waters.     

Experimental and theoretical radiative decay rates for highly excited ruthenium atomic levels and the solar abundance of ruthenium

The solar photospheric abundance of ruthenium is revised on the basis of a new set of oscillator strengths derived for Ru  i transitions with wavelengths in the spectral range 2250–4710 Å. The new abundance value (in the usual logarithmic scale where the solar hydrogen abundance is equal to 12.00),   A _Ru= 1.72 ± 0.10  , is in agreement with the most recent meteoritic result,   A _Ru= 1.76 ± 0.03  . The accuracy of the transition probabilities, obtained using a relativistic Hartree–Fock model including core-polarization effects, has been assessed by comparing the theoretical lifetimes with previous experimental results. A comparison is also made with new measurements performed in this work by the time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy for 10 highly excited odd-parity levels of Ru  i .