基于城市体系的长江三角洲旅游地域系统研究

首先分析了长江三角洲旅游资源的分布格局及长三角旅游发展的整体性现状，认为长三角旅游整体发展的协调性不足。然后从城市体系与区域旅游整体发展耦合的角度出发，引入了长江三角洲城市体系的规模结构、空间结构、交通网络结构和城市群内部经济联系的分析研究，并以此划分出了长三角两个层次的旅游地域系统，给出了长三角地域旅游城市网络体系的空间组织。最后提出了长三角区域旅游产业联动发展的对策和建议。     

MRICES:一个新的减排方案评价模型及其应用(英文)

Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions, whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country’s right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8 ℃by 2100; consequently, much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.     

SARS流行期的天气学尺度分析

本文以香港和北京为例,对SARS流行期的天气特征做了事件相关分析和统计分析.研究发现,在SARS流行期,SARS疫情高发可能与大约8日前的气温日较差阶段性降低有关系.但是当气温日较差过程发生趋势性变化时,疫情过程的响应时间为5～10天.SARS疫情高发还可能与8日前空气相对湿度偏低有关系,同时也与11～12日前的相对湿度峰值有关.前者较多的表现在香港,后者较多表现在北京.初步认为,略低于相对湿度75%的某个值附近,相对湿度对于疫情发展有促进作用;相对湿度具有二重性.空气污染有助于SARS病毒的扩散传染,它的影响滞后期在8～10天.     

旅游资源的GIS评价系统

本文旨在研究GIS技术与旅游资源评价模型相结合的系统原型,出于确定旅游资源规模的目的,本文以国家级风景名胜区旅游资源评价系统为例,建立了基于GIS的国家级旅游资源评价系统,并详尽地介绍了系统的构建、系统功能的实现等。本文中以郭来喜等和尹泽生等的分类模型为基础,发展了资源评价模型,提出了全国性特色资源和地方性特色资源,并采用了数据流的分析方法,通过GIS技术进行系统开发,而且利用第三方控件ActiveBar2.0及ActiveSkin1.0优化系统界面。通过本系统,能够对国家级的各风景名胜区进行基于2个模型的分类评价以及风景点品质的评价,从而进行比较,起到辅助决策的作用。     

中国SARS流行的季节性风险探讨

本文对我国SARS(非典型肺炎)疫区流行期的气候特征作了统计分析。根据这种特征,提出了SARS流行的气候风险作为认识SARS流行的季节性风险的基础,最后估计了全国流行SARS的季节性风险。其结论是并非所有区域在冬季都会出现最大风险,但全国在夏季是普遍安全的