Diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios applied to urban flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area

Past heavy precipitation events in the Chicago metropolitan area have caused significant flood-related economic and environmental damages. A key component in flood management policies and actions is determining flood magnitudes for specified return periods. This is a particularly difficult task in areas with a complex and changing climate and land-use, such as the Chicago metropolitan area. The standard design storm methodology based on the NOAA Atlas 14 and ISWS Bulletin 70 has been used in the past to estimate flood hydrographs with variable return periods in this region. In a changing climate, however, these publications may not be accurate. This study presents and illustrates a methodology for diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios in the framework of urban flooding, and assesses the corresponding uncertainties. First, the design storms are calculated using data downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) at 30-km spacing for the present and 2050s under the IPCC A1Fi (high) and B1 (low) emissions scenarios. Next, the corresponding flood discharges at six watersheds in suburban Chicago are estimated using a hydrologic event model. The resulting scenarios in flood frequency were first assessed through a set of diagnostic tests for precipitation timing and frequency. The study did not reveal any significant changes in the 2050s in the average timing of heavy storms, but their regularity decreased. The average timing did not exhibit any significant spatial variability throughout the region. The precipitation frequency analysis revealed distinct differences between the northern and southeastern subregions of the Chicago metropolitan area. The quantiles in the northern subregion averaged for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year return periods exhibited a 20% and 16% increase in daily precipitation for scenarios B1 and A1Fi, respectively. The southeastern subregion, however, exhibited a decrease of 12% for scenario B1 and a minor increase of 3% for scenario A1Fi. The hydrologic effects of changing precipitation on the flood quantiles were illustrated using six small watersheds in the region. The relative increases or decreases in precipitation translated into even larger relative increases or decreases in flood peaks, due to the nonlinear nature of the rainfall-runoff process. Simulations using multiple climate models, for longer periods, finer spatio-temporal resolution, and larger areal coverage could be used to more accurately account for numerous uncertainties in the precipitation and flood projections.     

Stratospheric methane measurements and predictions

A new determination of stratospheric methane from 22 km to 35 km altitude with implications on the abundance of this constituent at greater heights is presented. Previous measurements, some of which showed large discrepancies with currently admitted values, have been reinterpreted and brought into agreement. The results are in contradiction according to present theories with thein situ determined CH₄ abundances at the upper edge of the stratosphere. Implications on the vertical transport coefficient used in one dimensional models are discussed.     

On the theoretical model for vertical ozone density distributions in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere

Diurnal variations in the vertical ozone density distribution have been calculated for the height range 40–150 km by extending our existing computer programs. The steady-state profiles were first calculated for fifteen constituents in the original program and three additional constituents (CH₄, CO and CO₂); the result was used as the initial condition for the time-dependent solution. The profile of the eddy diffusion coefficient used in this study was determined by comparing the model profile with the observations for CH₄, whose density distribution is verysenstive to the eddy diffusion coefficient The effects of hydrogen and nitrogen compounds on the ozone density are discussed somewhat quantitatively; they reduce the ozone density mainly in the mesosphere and stratosphere, respectively. Special attention is given to the large depression of the ozone density at around 70–85 km, which has been obtained in many theoretical models but has neither been explained nor definitely confirmed by observations. Our time-dependent model indicates that the depression develops at night by the effect of hydrogen-oxygen and nitrogen-oxygen reactions and of eddy diffusion transports. The latter effect also produces an increase of the ozone density after midnight at some heights in the depression region.     

Substitution of Natural Gas for Coal: Climatic Effects of Utility Sector Emissions

Substitution of natural gas for coal is one means of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. However, natural gas and coal use also results in emissions of other radiatively active substances including methane (CH₄), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate aerosolprecursor, and black carbon (BC) particles. Will switching from coal to gas reduce the net impact of fossil fuel use on global climate? Using the electric utility sector as an example, changes in emissions of CO₂, CH₄,SO₂ and BC resulting from the replacement of coal by natural gas are evaluated, and their modeled net effect on global mean-annual temperature calculated. Coal-to-gas substitution initially produces higher temperatures relative to continued coal use. This warming is due to reduced SO₂ emissionsand possible increases in CH₄ emissions, and can last from 1 to 30years, depending on the sulfur controls assumed. This is followed by a net decrease in temperature relative to continued coal use, resulting from lower emissions of CO₂ and BC. The length of this period and the extent of the warming or cooling expected from coal-to-gas substitution is found to depend on key uncertainties and characteristics of the substitutions, especially those related to: (1) SO₂ emissions and consequentsulphate aerosol forcing; and (2) the relative efficiencies of the power plantsinvolved in the switch.     

Impacts on Global Ozone and Climate from Use and Emission of 2,2-Dichloro-1,1,1-Trifluoroethane (HCFC-123)

Analyses of emissions, and consequent chlorine loading, show that projected use of 2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane (HCFC-123) will result in a virtually indiscernible impact on stratospheric ozone. Parametric scenarios uphold this conclusion, even for extreme levels of emissions far exceeding those of current technologies and practices. Additional scenarios reaffirm the conclusion for continued use – beyond the scheduled phaseout date – as a refrigerant in closed systems. By contrast, use of this compound offers unique opportunities to reduce global warming. Moreover, time-dependent analyses show that the minimal contribution to stratospheric chlorine from HCFC-123 emissions will not peak until more than a decade after the residual peaks of chlorine and bromine, from prior chlorofluorocarbon and halon releases, subside. While no single index exists to compare the relative demerits of ozone depletion and climate change, three conclusions are clear. First, reversal of the buildup of bromine and chlorine (i.e., healing of the ozone layer) is underway and progressing on target, while sufficient practical remedies for global climate change are far more difficult. Second, the analyses show that phaseout of all chlorinated, and conceptually – but much less probably – all brominated, compounds of anthropogenic origin targets some compounds that provide environmental benefits. Most chlorinated and brominated compounds do warrant phaseout; the exceptions are those with very short atmospheric lifetimes, and consequent low ozone depletion potential (ODP), that also offer offsetting environmental benefits. And third, since new global environmental concerns may, and probably will, be identified in the future, a more scientific approach is needed to determine environmental acceptability or rejection.     

Sensitivity of direct global warming potentials to key uncertainties

The concept of global warming potential was developed as a relative measure of the potential effects on climate of a greenhouse gas as compared to CO₂. In this paper a series of sensitivity studies examines several uncertainties in determination of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs). For example, the original evaluation of GWPs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990) did not attempt to account for the possible sinks of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that could balance the carbon cycle and produce atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ that match observations. In this study, a balanced carbon cycle model is applied in calculation of the radiative forcing from CO₂. Use of the balanced model produces up to 21% enhancement of the GWPs for most trace gases compared with the IPCC (1990) values for time horizons up to 100 years, but a decreasing enhancement with longer time horizons. Uncertainty limits of the fertilization feedback parameter contribute a 20% range in GWP values. Another systematic uncertainty in GWPs is the assumption of an equilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases remains constant) versus a disequilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases varies with time). The latter gives GWPs that are 19 to 32% greater than the former for a 100 year time horizons, depending upon the carbon dioxide emission scenario chosen. Five scenarios are employed: constant-concentration, constant-emission past 1990 and the three IPCC (1992) emission scenarios. For the analysis of uncertainties in atmospheric lifetime (τ) the GWP changes in direct proportion toτ for short-lived gases, but to a lesser extent for gases withτ greater than the time horizontal for the GWP calculation.     

Accounting for the missing carbon-sink with the CO2-fertilization effect

A terrestrial-biosphere carbon-sink has been included in global carbon-cycle models in order to reproduce past atmospheric CO₂, ¹³C and ¹⁴C concentrations. The sink is of large enough magnitude that its effect on projections of future CO₂ levels should not be ignored. However, the cause and mechanism of this sink are not well understood, contributing to uncertainty of projections. The estimated magnitude of the biospheric sink is examined with the aid of a global carbon-cycle model. For CO₂ emissions scenarios, model estimates are made of the resulting atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Next, the response of this model to CO₂-emission impulses is broken down to give the fractions of the impulse which reside in the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial biosphere - all as a perturbation to background atmospheric CO₂ concentration time-profiles that correspond to different emission scenarios. For a biospheric sink driven by the CO₂-fertilization effect, we find that the biospheric fraction reaches a maximum of roughly 30% about 50 years after the impulse, which is of the same size as the oceanic fraction at that time. The dependence of these results on emission scenario and the year of the impulse are reported.