Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Wetlands and low-gradient topography are associated with longer hydrologic transit times in Precambrian Shield headwater catchments

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics, and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including till, thin soils, bedrock outcrops, and depressional wetland features that play contrasting hydrologic roles. This study presents approximately 3.5 years of precipitation and streamflow water isotope data and estimates mean transit times (MTTs) and the young water fraction (p_y) across six small catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The main objectives were to define a typical range of MTTs for headwater catchments in this region and to identify landscape variables that best explain differences in MTTs/p_y using airborne light detection and ranging and digital terrain analysis. Of the transit time distributions, the two parallel linear reservoir and gamma distributions best describe the hydrology of these catchments, particularly because of their ability to capture more extreme changes related to events such as snowmelt. The estimated MTTs, regardless of the modelling approach or distribution used, are positively associated with the percent wetland area and negatively with mean slope in the catchments. In this landscape, low-gradient features such as wetlands increase catchment scale water storage when antecedent conditions are dryer and decrease transit times when there is a moisture surplus, which plausibly explains the increases in MTTs and mean annual runoff from catchments with significant coverage of these landscape features.     

Small hypervelocity particles captured in aerogel collectors: Location,extraction, handling and storage

Abstract— It has now been about a decade since the first demonstrations that hypervelocity particles could be captured, partially intact, in aerogel collectors. But the initial promise of a bonanza of partially‐intact extraterrestrial particles, collected in space, has yet to materialize. One of the difficulties that investigators have encountered is that the location, extraction, handling and analysis of very small (10 μm and less) grains, which constitute the vast majority of the captured particles, is challenging and burdensome. Furthermore, current extraction techniques tend to be destructive over large areas of the collectors. Here we describe our efforts to alleviate some of these difficulties. We have learned how to rapidly and efficiently locate captured particles in aerogel collectors, using an automated microscopic scanning system originally developed for experimental nuclear astrophysics. We have learned how to precisely excavate small access tunnels and trenches using an automated micromanipulator and glass microneedles as tools. These excavations are only destructive to the collector in a very small area—this feature may be particularly important for excavations in the precious Stardust collectors. Using actuatable silicon microtweezers, we have learned how to extract and store “naked” particles—essentially free of aerogel—as small as 3 μm in size. We have also developed a technique for extracting particles, along with their terminal tracks, still embedded in small cubical aerogel blocks. We have developed a novel method for storing very small particles in etched nuclear tracks. We have applied these techniques to the extraction and storage of grains captured in aerogel collectors (Particle Impact Experiment, Orbital Debris Collector Experiment, Comet‐99) in low Earth orbit.     

Simulations of multimode bolometric interferometers

We describe a procedure for the numerical modelling of astronomical interferometers, with particular relevance to far-infrared and submillimetre wavelengths. The scheme is based on identifying a set of modes that carry power from the sky to the detector. The procedure is extremely general, and can be used to model scalar or vector fields, in any state of coherence and polarization, the only limitation being that the propagation of a coherent field through the system be described by an integral transform, a constraint that is in practise always met.
We present simulations of ideal, multimode two-dimensional interferometers, and show that the modal theory reproduces the correct behaviour of both Michelson and Fizeau interferometers. We calculate simulated visibility data for a multimode bolometric Michelson interferometer, with a synthesized source, and produce a dirty map, recovering the original source with the usual artefacts associated with interferometers.     

Numerical models of subduction and forearc deformation

Summary. Finite element models for shallow subduction produce realistic behaviour for a wide variety of mechanical strength and density distributions. Characteristic displacements are found to occur even without a discrete low-strength megathrust if there is a high-density subducted plate to localize lithospheric compression. A high-density plate is itself unnecessary in the presence of a low-strength megathrust and regional compression.
Successful finite element models produce an outer arc at the top of the trench slope, and forearc basin with geometry characteristic of natural analogues. These structural features occur by upward inelastic bending of the lithospheric wedge overlying the megathrust. This mechanically unstable behaviour may dissipate significant energy and cause the megathrust to migrate continuously by accretion, tectonic erosion, or abandonment and reinitiation farther offshore. Upward bending in the overriding plate is promoted by low megathrust dip, low megathrust shear strength, and high horizontal compression in the overriding plate.     

Multiple longshore sand bars in the upper Chesapeake Bay

In the upper Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, U.S.A.) field surveys were conducted at 18 multiple longshore sand bar sites. The multiple bar systems were found in water depths less than approximately 2 m (mean sea level), and exhibited mild bottom slopes of 0·0052 or less. The number of bars composing each system ranged from four to 17 and the spacing between the crests typically increased in the offshore direction, ranging from 12 to 70 m. Bar height also typically increased with distance offshore and ranged from 0·03 to 0·61 m. A grain size analysis of crest and trough sediment did not reveal any significant differences and the sediment was categorized as ‘fine sand’. A review of the literature data indicated that the Chesapeake Bay multiple bars possessed similar characteristics to those found in Gelding Bay (Baltic Sea); similarities in fetch, wave height and tidal range between the two bays may account for this finding. The surf-scaling parameter indicated that the multiple bar systems were extremely dissipative with regard to wave energy, and wave height appeared to be an important factor in controlling bar spacing and bar height. A multiple wave break point hypothesis was discussed as a possible mechanism for the formation of Chesapeake Bay multiple longshore bars, and limited observational evidence appeared to support such a mechanism.     

Simulation of adaptive optics for the Vacuum Tower Telescope

A simulation model of the adaptive optics of the German Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT), Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, is presented. The model uses modules from the integrated model of the Euro50 extremely large telescope, and includes submodels of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor, a de-formable mirror, a tip-tilt mirror, high-voltage amplifier low-pass filters, a reconstructor and a controller. We investigate the impact on the closed loop bandwidth of changes in controller configuration and certain system parameters, such as low pass filter bandwidth and camera integration and readout time. Control strategies were tested on simple models before implementation on the full VTT model. Using the models, different control strategies are compared.