Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004

We investigate the temporal patterns in inter-annual variability in ice breakup dates for Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, between 1905 and 2004. We analyze the contributions of long-term trends attributed to climate change, local weather, indices of sunspots, and large-scale climatic drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niňo Southern Ocean Index (ENSO) on time series of lake-ice breakup. The relative importance of the aforementioned explanatory variables was assessed using linear regression and variation partitioning models accounting for cyclic temporal dynamics as represented by Moran Eigenvector Maps (MEM). Model results explain an average of 58 % of the variation in ice breakup dates. A combination of the long-term linear trends, rain and snowfall in the month prior to breakup, air temperature in the winter prior to breakup, cyclic dynamics associated with sunspot numbers, ENSO, and for Lake Mendota, NAO, all significantly influence the timing of ice breakup. Significant cycle lengths were 3.5, 9, 11, and 50 years. Despite their proximity, Lakes Mendota and Monona exhibit differences in how and which explanatory variables were incorporated into the models. Our results indicate that lake ice dynamics are complex in both lakes and multiple interacting processes explain the residuals around the linear warming trends that characterize lake ice records.     

Linear analysis of air cushion vehicle seakeeping response

A linearized analysis of the response of an air cushion vehicle running in waves is described. The analysis uses the linear systems approach where the vehicle is considered to be a “black box”, i.e. the response characteristics are determined experimentally from input-output relationships. The wave forces and moments are expressed in a form that produces the proper limiting behavior for infinite wavelength. Predicted motion response is shown to compare well with experimental data.     

Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004

Our analyses partition the relative influence of progressive climate change and large-scale climate drivers that can be associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), solar sunspot cycle, and multi-decadal oscillations on lake ice breakup dates for thirteen Northern Hemisphere lakes. Oscillatory dynamics explain 26 % of the total variance in the time series compared with 15 % for linear trends, leaving 60 % unexplained and likely attributable, in part, to local weather. Significant oscillatory dynamics include frequencies in 2–3 year periods (9.4 % of the total variance), 3–6 year periods (8.2 %), 10–12 year periods (1.6 %) and various multidecadal periods (0.4–1.3 %). All 13 study lakes, although widely scattered in the Northern Hemisphere, had similar oscillatory dynamics and linear trends, emphasizing that global processes influence lake ice breakup locally. We illustrate that while quasi-periodic dynamics associated with large-scale climate drivers are important, they do not mask the clear evidence for progressive climate change.     

Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes

Historical ice records, such as freeze and breakup dates and the total duration of ice cover, can be used as a quantitative indicator of climatic change if long homogeneous records exist and if the records can be calibrated in terms of climatic changes. Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, has the longest uninterrupted ice records available for any lake in North America dating back to 1855. These records extend back prior to any reliable air temperature data in the midwestern region of the U.S. and demonstrate significant warming of approximately 1.5 °C in fall and early winter temperatures and 2.5 °C in winter and spring temperatures during the past 135 years. These changes are not completely monotonie, but rather appear as two shorter periods of climatic change in the longer record. The first change was between 1875 and 1890, when fall, winter, and spring air temperatures increased by approximately 1.5 °C. The second change, earlier ice breakup dates since 1979, was caused by a significant increase in winter and early spring air temperatures of approximately 1.3 °C. This change may be indicative of shifts in regional climatic patterns associated with global warming, possibly associated with the Greenhouse Effect.With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates, we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs, the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1 °C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5 °C, years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years.     

The high frequency waves produced on the surface of a liquid by an oscillating translating pressure distribution

In a previous paper (Magnuson, 1977) expressions were derived for the two-dimensional surface elevation resulting from oscillatory translating pressure distributions. Wave elevations were computed for the subcritical frequency range for the uniform pressure distribution by using linearized water wave theory. This paper extends the work in Magnuson (1977) to the supercritical frequency range. Wave profiles are presented for frequencies and speeds covering the operating range of air-cushion vehicles. In addition, the power radiated into the far field is computed as a function of frequency for several speeds.     

Aqueous Phase Reaction of HNO4: The Impact on Tropospheric Chemistry

We use a global atmospheric chemistry transport model to study the possible influence of aqueous phase reactions of peroxynitric acid (HNO₄) on the concentrations and budgets of NO_x, SO_x, O₃ and H₂O₂. Laboratory studies have shown that the aqueous reaction of HNO_4aq withHSO^– _3aq, and the uni-molecular decomposition of the NO₄ ^– anion to form NO₂ ^– (nitrite) occur on a time scale of about a second. Despite a substantial contribution of the reaction of HSO^– _3aq with HNO_4aq to the overall in-cloud conversion of SO₂ to SO₄ ^2–, a simultaneous decrease of other oxidants (most notably H₂O₂) more than compensated the increase in SO₄ ^2– production. The strongest influence of heterogeneous HNO₄ chemistry was found in the boundary layer, where calculated monthly average ozone concentrations were reduced between 2% to 10% andchanges of H₂O₂ between –20% to +10%compared to a simulation which ignores this reaction. Furthermore, SO₂ was increased by 10% to 20% and SO₄ ^2–depleted by up to 10%. Since the resolution of our global model does not enable a detailed comparison with measurements in polluted regions, it is not possible to verify whether considering heterogeneous HNO₄ reactions results in a substantial improvement of atmospheric chemistry transport models. However, the conversion of HNO₄ in the aqueous phase seems to be efficient enough to warrant further laboratory investigations and more detailed model studies on this topic.     

Coherence between lake ice cover, local climate and teleconnections (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin)

Ice duration has shortened and the ice-off date has become earlier for Lake Mendota from 1905 to 2000 as air temperatures have warmed and snowfall has increased. In addition, the ice record has cyclic components at inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. We examined the frequency domain relations between ice, local climate and the teleconnections, Southern Ocean Oscillation (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Northern Pacific Index (NP), through a three-tiered analysis of coherence. The coherence results provide evidence of linear relations between the three levels at inter-annual and inter-decadal frequencies. Of the three local climate variables analyzed, namely temperature, snowfall and snow depth, temperature is the variable that most significantly affects ice duration and ice-off date, at both inter-annual and inter-decadal frequencies. The most significant effect of teleconnections on local climate are the effects of PDO on snowfall and snow depth, and SOI on temperature, at inter-annual frequencies, and the effect of NAO on snowfall at inter-decadal frequencies. The teleconnections that most significantly affect ice-cover duration and ice-off date, particularly at inter-decadal frequencies, are the PDO and the NAO. The influence of PDO on ice-cover appears to be transmitted through temperature, while the influence of the NAO appears to be transmitted through temperature and snowfall. A cascading set of links between teleconnections, local climate, and lake ice explain some, but not all, of the dynamics in these time series.     

Extreme events,trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.     

Evidence for multiple modes of uranium immobilization by an anaerobic bacterium

Microbial reduction of hexavalent uranium has been studied widely for its potential role in bioremediation and immobilization of soluble U(VI) in contaminated groundwater. More recently, some microorganisms have been examined for their role in immobilization of U(VI) via precipitation of uranyl phosphate minerals mediated by microbial phosphate release, alleviating the requirement for long-term redox control. Here, we investigated the mechanism of U(VI) removal mediated by an environmental isolate, strain UFO1, that is indigenous to the Field Research Center (FRC) in Oak Ridge, TN and has been detected in U(VI)-contaminated sediments. Changes in U(VI) speciation were examined in the presence and absence of the electron-shuttling moiety, anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate (AQDS). Cell suspensions were capable of nearly complete removal of 100 μM U(VI) from solution within 48 h; U(VI) removal was not dependent on the presence of an exogenous electron donor or AQDS, although AQDS increased the rate of U(VI) removal. X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) and Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) spectroscopic measurements indicated that U(IV) was the predominant oxidation state of uranium in cell suspensions in both the absence and presence of 100 μM AQDS. Interestingly, 17% of the cell-associated precipitates in a U(VI)-treated suspension that lacked AQDS had spectral characteristics consistent with a uranyl phosphate solid phase. The potential involvement of phosphate was consistent with observed increases in soluble phosphate concentrations over time in UFO1 cell suspensions, which suggested phosphate liberation from the cells. TEM-EDS confirmed the presence of uranyl phosphate with a U:P ratio consistent with autunite (1:1). EXAFS analyses further suggested that U(IV) was bound to low-Z neighbors such as C or P, inferred to be present as functional groups on biomass. These results suggest that strain UFO1 has the ability to facilitate U(VI) removal from solution via reductive and phosphate precipitation mechanisms. Both mechanisms offer potential for the remediation of U-contaminated sediments at the FRC or elsewhere.